Farewell Indian Summer

We had a good run of above normal September like warmth this week with a string of days 70+! Today is the first day since last Monday we won't record a 70 degree reading at any part of the day. Here is a look back at the temperature observations from the past week. On Friday, the low of 64° set a record for the warmest minimum temperature for the date. This bested the previous record of 62° set back in 1991. Also of note, no other date in the past 153 years of weather recordkeeping between Oct 26 - Mar 22 saw a minimum temperature reading for the day above 63° so this kind of set another new record for that. Temperatures ran nearly 20° above normal last week. A low in the lower 40s and high in the lower 60s is considered "normal" at the end of October.

SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY
59 44	68 39	78 48	74 61	75 57	77 64 (R)	70 49

The passage of a cold front late Friday night into Saturday has and will continue to send temperatures on a downward trend. We spent most of the day on Saturday in the 50s. While we haven't received a whole lot of rain over the past week, scattered showers will continue to remain in the forecast throughout Sunday. Drier Canadian air will start to move into the region pushing the rain out by late Monday morning and ultimately driving temps into the 20s for multiple days this upcoming week starting on Halloween. We haven't had a freeze in over 6 months and we won't close out October without receiving another one.

1st Fall Freeze Dates (2013-2022) 2022:    Oct 19 2021:    Nov 03 2020:    Oct 16 2019:    Oct 31 2018:    Oct 21 2017:    Oct 29 2016:    Nov 12 2015:    Oct 18 2014:    Nov 01 2013:    Oct 22 Average 1st Fall Freeze October 17 Earliest 1st Fall Freeze September 30, 1899 September 30, 1993 Latest 1st Fall Freeze November 27, 1902

Days Since Our Last Freeze 189 Days Date of Our Last Freeze: A p r i l   2 4

A wave may push thru the state Tuesday night night bringing the threat for a few light snow showers or flurries but Indianapolis may be too far South and essentially "cut-off" from moisture for this event. Areas closer to the lakes, particularly N / NE, will see the greatest chance. Otherwise, expect a mostly dry week with chilly temperatures through November 1st. By November 2nd, we will get on the return flow of high pressure and temps will moderate to readings that are a little more seasonal for this time of the year.

5 DAY DETAILED FORECAST
SUNDAY: Cloudy Skies. Showers continue through early morning then may ease up with a few dry hours before returning in the afternoon and evening. Winds will be light from the North at 5 - 10 mph. Precip amounts from sunrise (8:10 AM) to sunset (6:46 PM) should be limited to a tenth or quarter of an inch. Temperatures will hover in the lower to middle 50s.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain will continue through the late evening and midnight hours. Winds continue to remain light but additional precip amounts may rise anywhere from a quarter of an inch to a half inch. Temperatures will cool into the 40s for much of the night.

MONDAY: Any lingering rain early in the morning should diminish and clouds should gradually scatter. Sunshine may return by the afternoon, if not late in the morning. Winds may turn slightly breezy from the NNW at 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Temperatures will see very little movement from a morning low in the upper 30s to an afternoon high in the middle 40s. Wind Chill temps will be in the 30s all day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Skies will be mostly clear and calmer winds will be ideal conditions for radiative cooling. Temperature are likely to fall in the middle to upper 20s marking the first freeze of the season. Record Low is 24 set in 1988. Wind chill temps are expected to fall into the upper teens and lower 20s.

TUESDAY: After a frosty and freezing start, sunshine will greet us and we'll quickly warm back up towards the lower 40s by the afternoon. Some clouds may mix in by the afternoon. Winds may gradually increase throughout the day, gusting to 25+ mph at times.

TUESDAY NIGHT: If we miss out on early snow showers or flurries (from sunset to midnight), skies will turn mostly to partly cloudy. Winds will gradually subside. Given broken clouds and winds turning calmer, we'll likely see some frost formation and temperatures again falling into the 20s. The record low is 24 set in 2019. Wind chills are likely to fall into the teens again.

WEDNESDAY: Skies will be clear and sunny but still remaining a little on the chilly side. We'll warm from the middle 20s in the morning to an afternoon high in the middle 40s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies and cold. Low temps in the upper 20s. Wind Chills in the lower 20s.

THURSDAY: Sunny and turning warmer. High in the upper 40s or lower 50s.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy skies and not as cold but low temps near freezing in the lower to middle 30s.

***EXTENDED OUTLOOK***

Warmer Temps Are On Borrowed Time

We are reaching the midpoint of Autumn and it has been a rather mild start so far with 61% of the days normal to above normal since September 1st. The average temperature for the month of September was 69.9°, finishing 2.1° above normal, tying it for the 33rd warmest on record. This remarkably makes September the 8th year out of the past 9, the month finished above normal. October to date is running a degree day above normal, on average. The high of 78 for October 24 marked the 10th time to reach 70+ for the month with addditional opportunites to add to the tally for the rest of the week. This is on par with most other recent years as we typically average about 12 days 70+ for the month.
This mild spell is a product of dry soils. September received less than 2" of rain [89% of the total rain for the month fell on one day - Sep 27] making it a sub-par month for precipitation, ranking as the 39th driest (September) on record. 4 out of the last 5 September finished below normal. October has slightly improved on September's rainfall numbers but we are still running almost 2.5" below normal for the season and over 5" for the year. Over 91% of the state is abnormally dry with over 63% of the state in a moderate drought. A new map will be issued on Thursday that may show equally, if not worse, conditions.

Weekend Ended on a Cold Note But Week is Already Seeing Fast Improvements
Ridging has expanded across our region allowing a quick turn around in temps from a departing trough. We saw the temps drop from a high on 68 Saturday afternoon to only 58 on Sunday and the low dropped from 47 on Sunday morning to 39 on Monday. Those numbers jumped back up to a Tuesday morning low of 48 and a high of 78. That high of 78 was only 3° shy of the record of 81 set in 1963. The average low and high for this time of the year is 43 / 62 so the day was overall 10° above normal.

TUESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY
Clouds have returned and the extra blanket will keep temps up in the upper 50s & lower 60s across Central Indiana to start the day on Wednesay. While some moisture will inject in, it will have some difficulty on reaching lower levels of the atmosphere as it tries to combat drier air at the surface. Any rain that can make its way down on Wednesday will be on the very light side (i.e. sprinkles). Winds will pick back up again gusting to 20-30 mph in the afternoon. As one wave departs, setting up for optimal dry conditions Wednesday night, another wave will trail behind for Thursday and Friday. Again, these may not bring any meaningful precipitation to our area but still worth keeping changes for scattered showers in the forecast. Temperatures will continue to hover in the lower 60s for morning lows and middle to upper 70s for afternoon highs. If we can somehow muster any sunshine any of these days, I wouldn't completely rule out lower 80s which would be in record breaking territory. These could be beyond reach though.

End of Month Cold Blast Looms
The pattern will start to break down with a stalled frontal boundary over the weekend. Waves are likely to ride the front into Indiana finally bringing a greater threat for a period of showers to our forecast area. We'll still likely be on the warm side of the front for Saturday but as we lose our grip on the warmth we'll likely cool to a high in the 60s breaking the string of 70s from this week. Rain cooled air will continue for Sunday as well. As this trough continues to deepen, we'll continue to see the temperature drop more and more each day to close out the month. Still working out the kinks with how long moisture lasts and when it will be essentially be "cut-off". If we do have any lingering moisture around by Tuesday, it will be cold enough to produce either a few flurries or a wintry precipitation mix. Precipitation or not, it will be a rather miserable Halloween with chilly air temperatures and a freezing wind chill factor. Drier but chilly conditions are likely to open the first week of November.


As we get ready to close out the month of October and enter November, we are now overdue for our first freeze of the season. If we don't hit 32 on October 31, it will marked the 6th time in over 30 years, we've seen the first occurrence arrive November 1 or later, which only makes up about 26% of years on record this late in year. I have a complete list of first fall freeze in a previous post. Click HERE for more information.

1st Fall Freeze Dates (2013-2022) 2022:    Oct 19 2021:    Nov 03 2020:    Oct 16 2019:    Oct 31 2018:    Oct 21 2017:    Oct 29 2016:    Nov 12 2015:    Oct 18 2014:    Nov 01 2013:    Oct 22 Average 1st Fall Freeze October 17 Earliest 1st Fall Freeze September 30, 1899 September 30, 1993 Latest 1st Fall Freeze November 27, 1902

Days Since Our Last Freeze 184 Days Date of Our Last Freeze: A p r i l   2 4

***EXTENDED OUTLOOK***

Autumn Continues but Summer Warmth Holds

Fall is that you? The autumnal equinox occured at 2:50 AM the Saturday morning of September 23 but summer has continued to stay beyond its welcome by more than 10 days and its not entirely a bad thing. A change in seasons at this time of the year brings rapidly falling temperatures, windy and cloudier / foggy days, and less daylight. Before we dive into that, let's recap some quick summer stats for 2023.

15 - # of days temp reached 90+ (first occurrence on June 2 and last occurence on September 5)
94 - hottest temp of 2023, which was reached on August 24
80 - dewpoint temp on August 25, 2023 was the highest since August 3, 2010
78 - the highest low temperature of 2023 occurred on August 24 and was the highest low since July 6, 2022. Additionally, it bested the previous record for the date of 77 set in 1936.
8 - the longest consecutive days with a trace or more of precipitation in the summer was recorded from June 29 to July 6
1.59" - the wettest day of the summer occurred on July 8 and helped contibuted to the 28th wettest July on record with a total of 6.06"
43% - the percentage of days that were both above and below normal for the months of June, July, and August totaling 86%, the remaining 14% (or 6 days) were at normal climatological levels. If you add in September and October (to date) the values come out to 64 days (or 51%) above normal, 54 days (or 43%) below normal, and 7 days (or 6%) at normal.
70 - highest wind gust speed (mph) of the year occurred on the afternoon of June 29 from a decaying derecho. Marked the highest gust speed since Apr 8, 2020
108 - the number of days (thru Oct 3) the temperature reached 80+ that first began on Apr 4 (average is around 100 days annually) - most is 131 days in 2007 & 2010
163 - the number of days (thru Oct 3) the temperature reached 70+ that first began on Feb 22 (average is around 160 days annually) - most is 186 in 2010
0 - the number of days the low temp dropped below 50 (beginning in June). This is the 4th consecutive year all 3 months (Jun-Aug) saw all of its days at 50+. This has also happened 7 out of the past 8 years. September also failed to drop below 50 which makes 2023 the 3rd year on record all 4 calendar months were 50+. The other 2 years were 2008 and 1925.


OCTOBER OPENS WITH LATE JULY and AUGUST-LIKE TEMPERATURES
The temperature on Sunday and Monday reached 84 and 85, respectively. These readings are the climatological averages for the first half of August. Additionally, the temperature on Tuesday reached a reading of 86° which is more typical for July. Another reading of 85+ is expected for Wednesday. These numbers are remarkably warm and there are only a few other handful of October days to reach this level of warmth or hotter. How many times has the temperature reached 85+ in October? We have had 96 out of a possible 4684 days since 1871 to reach temps ranging from 85 to 92, in the month of October. Only 6 of those days were 90+ with the last occurence happening on October 8, 2007. There was one year, the last 80+ degree reading occurred the following month on November 1, 1950. While we aren't exactly setting record temperatures, 2023 is in the top 2% for one of the warmest starts to Autumn.

Temperatures will begin a cooling process soon. Here's a look back at the last time we saw some cold numbers:

Last Occurrence	Low Temp	High Temp
below 70°	10/3/2023	6/12/2023
below 60°	10/1/2023	5/2/2023
below 50°	5/26/2023	5/1/2023
below 40°	5/3/2023	3/19/2023
below 30°	4/24/2023(NOTE)	3/18/2023
below 20°	3/19/2023	12/25/2022
below 10°	12/25/2022	12/23/2022
below 0°	12/23/2022	1/18/1994

NOTE: April 24, 2023 also marks the date of our last Spring Freeze


SUNSHINE AND WARMTH TO GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
Wednesday will start off with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s across Indianapolis. Skies will generally be mostly clear so expect sunshine to greet us at sunrise, which now occurs a few minutes before 8:00 AM at this time of the year. Bright conditions and breezy winds should help boost temps back into the middle 80s for highs. We will see an increase of clouds that will mix down which may inhibit temps from reaching levels any higher than the 84°-87° range. Once the sun sets shortly after 7:00 PM, we may very well say goodbye to 80° warmth for the remainder of the year. Also of note, our streak of above normal warmth will reach 15 consecutive days with readings as much as 15 degrees above normal. Dry air will continue to hold during the overnight hours with temps likely only dropping into the mid 60s but the atmosphere may become more saturated on Thursday. A weakening cold front associated with a surface low passing to our North, could ignite a few light showers across the area anytime after sunrise Thursday. This will be the first of a few signals to a pattern change of dramatically cooler temperatures to wrap the week and enter the weekend. Scattered showers may continue Thursday afternoon and evening and ease up to only isolated or spotty chances for Friday and Saturday, where another cold front is poised to pass. Given breezy conditions, in tandem with cooler weather sliding in this may result in a WIND CHILL FACTOR! You may want to dress appropriately as it may feel cooler than it actually is, which is usually the case when the coldest air of the season ushers in. Some areas, likely away from city (urban heat island effect), will see frost on Sunday morning depending on how quickly winds subside. Frost forms when there is a break in clouds, light winds, and temps below 40. This criteria could also be met in some areas on Monday.

After the weekend, another dry streak emerges with more sunny weather that may help temps to quickly moderate to seasonal levels with lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in the middle to upper 60s for much of the next week. A few 70s in some locales are possible but the transition in seasons will be hard to hold onto any meaningful prolonged periods of warmth. More cold jabs are likely in the weeks ahead.

Complete history of first 70, 80, and 90 degrees dates in Indianapolis

UPDATED ON JUNE 3

Spring has Sprung and we will continue to welcome in warmer weather over the next few weeks and months. We have already reached 70+ on multiple occasions this year, but when do we expect to reach 80s and 90s? It has been nearly 200 days since we last saw a temperature 80+ when 93° was recorded on September 21. 2022. We typically see 80s in April and 90s by June but there has few occasions where 80s did not arrive until the first week of June and the first 90 in September. In 2004, we failed to go above 89° the entire year. This is the only year on record for this to happen.
NOTE: On April 4, the temperatures reached 80° for the first time of 2023. At the time this blog was originally posted we did not reach 90+ yet for 2023 but we did eventually meet the threshold on June 2.

70+ have been recorded between Jan 11-Dec 12 (Average first 70 is Mar 17 while avg last 70 is Nov 3)
80+ have been recorded between Mar 8-Nov 1 (Average first 80 is Apr 21 while avg last 80 is Oct 7)
90+ have been recorded between Apr 24-Oct 8 (Average first 90 is Jun 14 while avg last 90 is Sep 1)
100+ have been recorded between Jun 2-Sep 15. We don't see them as often but they have occurred 72 times over the past 152 years and our last occurence was nearly 12 years ago. For a complete history of dates, I have added them below at the end.

YEAR      FIRST 70° DATE 70° TEMP RECORDED FIRST 80° DATE 80° TEMP RECORDED FIRST 90° DATE 90° TEMP RECORDED 2023 Feb 2 71° Apr 4 80° Jun 2 90#176; 2022 Mar 5 77° Apr 23 84° Jun 13 91° 2021 Mar 10 71° Apr 27 82° Jun 11 91° 2020 Mar 28 74° May 2 82° Jun 19 90° 2019 Mar 13 71° Apr 11 81° Jun 29 90° 2018 Feb 20 77° May 1 81° May 27 91° 2017 Feb 23 70° Apr 14 80° Jun 12 90° 2016 Feb 20 72° Apr 17 80° Jun 11 92° 2015 Mar 16 74° Apr 9 80° Jun 10 90° 2014 Apr 10 74° Apr 7 83° Aug 25 90° 2013 Apr 06 71° Apr 09 81° Jul 16 96° 2012 Mar 12 71° Mar 14 81° May 26 90° 2011 Mar 17 74° Apr 10 83° May 30 90° 2010 Mar 10 72° Apr 1 82° Jun 11 90° 2009 Mar 06 70° Apr 24 84° Jun 19 91° 2008 Apr 07 71° Apr 23 82° Jun 08 90° 2007 Mar 14 77° Mar 13 80° Jun 07 90° 2006 Mar 12 70° Apr 13 82° Jun 02 90° 2005 Mar 30 77° Apr 10 80° Jun 05 90° 2004 Mar 24 70° Apr 17 82° No 90s Recorded 2003 Mar 16 74° Apr 15 81° Jul 03 90° 2002 Mar 8 73° Apr 15 84° Jun 4 90° 2001 Apr 5 74° Apr 7 83° Jun 14 90° 2000 Feb 23 71° May 5 81° Aug 9 90° 1999 Feb 11 75° May 4 80° Jun 8 92° 1998 Mar 26 76° Mar 29 80° Jun 24 90° 1997 Mar 21 77° Apr 30 80° Jul 2 90° 1996 Feb 27 73° May 9 82° Jun 28 90° 1995 Mar 12 70° May 9 80° Jun 18 90° 1994 Mar 23 77° Apr 18 80° May 23 90° 1993 Mar 30 72° May 7 80° Jul 3 90° 1992 Mar 2 74° May 1 83° Jun 17 92° 1991 Mar 21 75° May 11 83° Jun 2 90° 1990 Mar 11 77° Apr 23 81° Jul 4 93° 1989 Mar 14 72° Apr 25 83° Jun 23 90° 1988 Mar 23 73° May 5 84° May 31 93° 1987 Mar 7 73° Apr 20 82° May 29 90° 1986 Mar 9 71° Mar 30 82° Jun 20 91° 1985 Feb 23 70° Apr 18 81° May 31 90° 1984 Apr 25 76° Apr 26 83° Jun 12 92° 1983 Mar 3 74° Jun 5 80° Jun 23 90° 1982 Mar 16 77° Apr 15 80° Jul 5 90° 1981 Mar 28 77° Mar 31 85° Jun 14 91° 1980 Apr 18 70° Apr 22 85° Jun 26 90° 1979 Mar 18 74° May 2 80° Aug 6 91° 1978 Mar 31 80° Mar 31 80° May 27 90° 1977 Mar 11 70° Apr 10 83° May 19 90° 1976 Mar 1 71° Apr 15 81° Jun 14 90° 1975 Mar 21 74° May 18 83° Jun 20 91° 1974 Mar 2 72° Mar 8 80° Jul 2 90° 1973 Mar 6 75° May 9 80° Jun 11 90° 1972 Feb 29 74° Apr 18 80° May 25 90° 1971 Mar 31 73° Apr 12 81° Jun 25 91° 1970 Apr 8 76° Apr 29 83° Jun 17 92° 1969 Mar 18 71° Apr 17 80° May 29 90° 1968 Mar 19 71° May 2 83° Jun 9 91° 1967 Jan 24 70° Mar 30 80° May 25 90° 1966  Mar 11 70° Apr 18 80° Jun 9 91° 1965 Apr 6 73° Apr 21 81° May 24 90° 1964 Mar 24 73° Apr 17 81° Jun 8 90° 1963 Mar 24 70° Mar 29 80° Jun 7 91° 1962 Mar 29 73° Apr 25 80° May 17 90° 1961 Mar 27 73° May 13 81° Jul 30 91° 1960 Mar 27 70° Apr 20 81° Sep 1 91° 1959 Mar 24 71° Apr 25 80° May 5 90° 1958 Apr 15 70° Apr 18 82° Jul 4 90° 1957 Mar 13 73° Apr 19 82° Jun 16 91° 1956 Mar 5 75° Apr 27 83° Jun 10 91° 1955 Apr 1 70° May 2 81° Jul 3 93° 1954 Feb 15 72° Apr 7 81° Jun 9 90° 1953 Mar 21 77° Apr 9 82° May 25 90° 1952 Mar 30 72° Apr 20 80° May 5 92° 1951 Mar 6 70° Apr 25 83° Jun 1 93° 1950 Jan 25 71° May 4 83° Jun 26 90° 1949 Mar 21 72° May 3 86° Jun 3 90° 1948 Mar 19 70° Apr 19 81° Jun 4 90° 1947 Apr 5 78° May 12 80° Jun 30 90° 1946 Mar 5 70° Apr 1 80° Jun 11 90° 1945 Mar 16 79° Apr 10 80° Jun 28 90° 1944 Mar 15 73° May 10 80° Jun 4 90° 1943 Mar 30 76° May 5 85° Jun 12 90° 1942 Mar 16 75° Apr 16 81° Apr 30 90° 1941 Apr 8 73° Apr 12 83° May 20 90° 1940 Mar 17 73° Apr 3 82° Jun 5 91° 1939 Mar 23 80° Mar 23 80° May 23 92° 1938 Mar 21 77° Apr 15 80° Jul 7 91° 1937 Apr 13 70° Apr 17 83° May 30 91° 1936 Mar 30 73° May 1 81° May 9 90° 1935 Mar 15 74° Apr 26 84° Jun 29 93° 1934 Mar 17 72° May 2 81° May 31 94° 1933 Mar 13 70° Apr 30 81° Jun 6 96° 1932 Feb 10 73° May 4 82° Jun 30 90° 1931 Apr 8 78° Apr 16 80° Jun 12 90° 1930 Mar 16 70° Apr 10 84° Jun 23 96° 1929 Mar 14 70° Mar 24 83° Jun 18 90° 1928 Mar 23 77° May 2 80° Jul 3 90° 1927 Mar 16 72° Apr 19 83° Jun 29 94° 1926 Mar 24 74° Apr 30 81° Jun 13 91° 1925 Mar 7 74° Apr 13 81° Apr 24 90° 1924 Apr 13 74° Apr 16 82° Jun 19 93° 1923 Apr 7 70° May 1 80° Jun 17 90° 1922 Feb 22 70° May 9 85° Jun 15 90° 1921 Mar 15 76° Apr 6 80° May 20 90° 1920 Mar 27 70° May 23 85° Jun 10 90° 1919 Mar 25 72° Apr 9 81° May 29 90° 1918 Mar 5 72° May 4 82° May 31 90° 1917 Mar 11 71° Apr 18 82° Jun 26 92° 1916 Mar 24 74° May 6 80° Jul 2 91° 1915 Apr 5 70° Apr 19 80° Jul 13 90° 1914 Apr 16 70° Apr 18 82° May 26 90° 1913 Mar 14 71° May 1 80° Jun 6 90° 1912 Mar 31 72° May 2 80° Jul 15 91° 1911 Mar 21 71° May 9 84° May 25 92° 1910 Mar 22 75° Mar 23 80° Jun 18 90° 1909 Apr 5 75° May 5 82° Jul 1 90° 1908 Mar 26 73° May 14 81° Jun 21 90° 1907 Mar 19 77° Mar 21 82° Jun 20 92° 1906 Jan 20 70° Apr 26 80° Jun 28 90° 1905 Mar 17 70° Apr 28 80° Jun 17 91° 1904 Mar 24 73° May 7 81° Jul 16 90° 1903 Mar 18 76° May 9 80° Jul 1 90° 1902 Apr 21 84° Apr 21 84° Jun 12 93° 1901 Mar 24 70° Apr 28 80° Jun 11 90° 1900 Apr 6 70° Apr 29 80° May 16 90° 1899 Mar 11 70° Apr 13 80° Jun 4 90° 1898 Mar 15 70° May 1 83° Jun 7 91° 1897 Apr 21 73° Apr 28 81° Jun 14 90° 1896 Feb 27 70° Apr 11 84° May 8 90° 1895 Mar 27 74° May 29 82° May 5 90° 1894 Mar 5 71° May 20 81° Jun 3 90° 1893 Mar 13 71° Apr 7 80° Jun 19 93° 1892 Apr 1 74° Apr 27 82° Jun 12 91° 1891 Apr 9 71° Apr 17 84° Jun 14 91° 1890 Jan 11 70° May 22 84° Jun 21 90° 1889 Mar 15 71° Apr 11 80° May 10 90° 1888 Apr 1 79° Apr 28 83° Jun 14 90° 1887 Mar 2 70° Apr 11 80° Jun 16 91° 1886 Mar 18 76° Apr 23 84° Jul 4 91° 1885 Apr 5 70° May 16 82° Jun 7 90° 1884 Mar 22 70° Apr 30 80° Jun 21 91° 1883 Feb 16 72° Apr 14 85° Jul 2 90° 1882 Mar 18 70° Apr 4 80° Jun 22 92° 1881 Apr 17 72° May 7 80° Jun 16 92° 1880 Mar 4 70° Apr 18 83° Jun 11 90° 1879 Mar 8 74° Apr 23 81° Jun 24 91° 1878 Mar 9 72° Apr 21 80° Jun 28 91° 1877 Mar 31 73° Apr 23 80° Jul 4 90° 1876 Mar 6 72° May 15 81° Jun 11 90° 1875 Mar 14 75° May 7 81° Jun 23 91° 1874 Mar 17 72° May 8 80° Jun 4 90° 1873 Apr 3 76° Apr 5 81° Jun 3 90° 1872 Apr 7 72° Apr 25 80° Jun 19 91° 1871  First Year Weather Recording Keeping Began - 100% of the Year's Data Was Not Recorded  Earliest 1-11-1890 70° 3-8-1974 80° 4-24-1925 90° Average Mar 17 N/A Apr 21 N/A June 14 N/A Latest 4-25-1984 76° 6-5-1983 80° 9-1-1960 91°

A complete list of 100° dates:

• 2012-07-25: 103°
• 2012-07-23: 102°
• 2012-07-17: 101°
• 2012-07-07: 105°
• 2012-07-06: 105°
• 2012-07-05: 103°
• 2012-07-04: 102°
• 2012-06-29: 103°
• 2012-06-28: 104°
• 2011-09-03: 100°
• 2011-07-21: 100°
• 1988-08-16: 102°
• 1988-07-15: 103°
• 1988-07-09: 100°
• 1988-07:08: 101°
• 1988-06-25: 102°
• 1980-07-15: 100°
• 1954-09-05: 100°
• 1954-07-18: 100°
• 1954-07-14: 104°
• 1954-06-26: 102°
• 1953-09-02: 100°
• 1953-09-01: 100°
• 1953-06-20: 100°
• 1952-07-28: 100°
• 1941-07-29: 100°
• 1940-07-30: 103°
• 1939-09-15: 100°  THIS IS THE LATEST DAY IN A YEAR FOR A 100° OCCURRENCE
• 1939-09-14: 100°
• 1936-08-22: 101°
• 1936-08-21: 100°
• 1936-08-19: 100°
• 1936-07-15: 103°
• 1936-07-14: 106°
• 1936-07-13: 103°
• 1936-07-12: 103°
• 1936-07-11: 104°
• 1936-07-10: 105°
• 1936-07-09: 103°
• 1936-07-08: 104°
• 1936-07-07: 101°
• 1934-07-25: 105°
• 1934-07-24: 105°
• 1934-07-23: 102°
• 1934-07-22: 103°
• 1934-07-21: 106°  THIS DATE IS SHARED WITH July 22, 1901 AS THE HOTTEST TEMP EVER RECORDED IN INDIANAPOLIS WEATHER HISTORY
• 1934-07-20: 103°
• 1934-06-29: 100°
• 1934-06-28: 101°
• 1934-06-27: 100°
• 1934-06-02: 100°  THIS IS THE EARLIEST DAY IN A YEAR FOR A 100° OCCURRENCE
• 1930-07-28: 101°
• 1930-07-20: 100°
• 1930-07-12: 100°
• 1918-08-05: 103°
• 1916-07-28: 100°
• 1916-07-27: 100°
• 1914-07-12: 100°
• 1913-07-13: 102°
• 1911-07-04: 103°
• 1911-07-03: 100°
• 1901-07-24: 101°
• 1901-07-22: 106°  THIS DATE IS SHARED WITH July 21, 1934 AS THE HOTTEST TEMP EVER RECORDED IN INDIANAPOLIS WEATHER HISTORY
• 1901-07-21: 100°
• 1895-08-16: 100°
• 1895-06-03: 100°
• 1887-07-30: 101°
• 1887-07-18: 100°
• 1887-07-13: 100°
• 1881-08-12: 101°
• 1881-07:11: 100°
• 1881-07:10: 101°

Winter Storm Looms

We are now entering the last week of Fall as Winter officially kicks off on Thursday, December 22 at 4:48 PM EST.

As you may have heard by now, fittingly so, a winter storm (picture below) will arrive towards the latter part of the week. This storm has sparked up a lot of curiousity and debate on all social media platforms. In today's world, we have supercomputers that run trillions of calculations a day. This allows meteorologists to use this data and inform the general public via weather forecasts on the upcoming weather pattern well ahead of time. You may ask, with all this data, why aren't the forecasts from all sources, the same?
When there is such variability in modeling data especially in the long term range, it's trickier to nail down which causes the wide difference in forecasts. While the general specifics may be correct, it's the smallest of details that is impossible to pinpoint way too far advance.

Here are a few things to consider:
(1) We know there is a storm but we don't know how strong of a storm it will be. The severity of the storm will impact total precipitation numbers.
(2) We know it will be warm enough for all modes of precipitation to be in play but we don't know the exact times each mode of precipitation will fall.
(3) We know the general direction the storm may take, region-wise, but we don't know the path down to the exact street, county, or city this storm will take.
(4) We know the rough estimates of time in days the storm will pass but we don't know the exact speed the storm will take down to the exact hour and minute.

Keeping all these things in mind, what we do know is, a winter storm traversing past the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions will bring both rain and snow to parts of Indiana on Thursday. Expectation is, for rain or mixing (on Thursday) to make the transition to all snow by Friday. We do not know the exact time that transition will be made, at this distance. The more the rain, the lower the snow totals. Due to a blocking pattern, cold arctic air, will quickly spill into the region. Again, we do not know the exact time this transition will happen. We know this cold plunge will spill in either late Thursday or sometime on Friday, perhaps early in the day. Since we have a general consensus from modeling data, that this will happen (the availibility of both moisture and cold air), we know there will be a period of all snow. Since we don't know how long snow may linger on Friday or its intensity, which can't be too much longer as it's expected to be wrapped up before or by daybreak Saturday, this makes it harder to pinpoint accurate accumulation totals. Regardless to what those totals may be, there is also the concern of heavy winds. Forecast wind gusts may exceed 40 mph on Friday. The smallest accumulation can cause blowing and drifting snow which could be blizzard-like. Snow does not need to be falling from the sky for it to be blizzard-like. Not saying this is an official blizzard but it could have characteristics of one. (Hope you read that carefully).

The weather models that meteorologist use is just a tool to help give guidance to the upcoming weather pattern. A weather forecast is simply just a prediction and meteorologist have no control over what happens or doesn't happen. At the end of the day, mother nature will do what it wants regardless to what the forecast says. There is no way to predict that with 100% accuracy.

Do not let this winter storm catch you off guard. There are so many ways to prepare now. All storms disrupt travel both on the ground and in the air. The timing of this upcoming winter storm is not ideal for holiday travelers. Given the details of this storm, at this distance, we know roads conditions will be very poor and possibly even unpassable in some locations. Also, planes will not be able to easily fly in these conditions. Check with INDOT on the latest for road conditions and check with airlines for delays and cancellations. When driving, make sure your vehicle is equipped to handle the conditions present at the time of travel. Faster drivers may be able to handle the terrain with the correct vehicle but there will be some slower drivers that can't. Regardless, it's always safe practice to slow down, increase the distance between your car and the car in front of you (do not cut somebody off) and give yourself, double the normal time to make the trip.
When flying, make sure you have an understanding of your airline's guidelines, in terms of re-booking or cancelling. Some airlines may not be able to offer a cash refund depending on the type of airline ticket purchased. If possible, try to book a flight to a different destination nearby.

Another tip, which goes out to panic buyers; do not hesitate to buy your milk and bread, in advance. If you didn't know, both milk and bread can be stored in the freezer for up to 6 months, without lost of taste.

Here is a look at the temperature forecast from this afternoon's run of the National Blend of Models. As you can see, we may drop to the single digits with potential of going below zero. Some locations may experience dangerous wind chills that exceed -20°F during the holiday weekend. Make sure you are layered up. Frostbite can settle in to exposed skin within a matter of minutes. FYI: 80% of body heat is loss through the head. It's wise to also wear some form of head covering.

Cold Start To The Week

FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY, OCTOBER 17 at 10:00 PM EDT until TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18 at 10:00 AM EDT

COLD BLAST ARRIVES ON MONDAY
October's temperatures, thus far, is trending below normal. Warm days have been few and far between. We did reach 69° on Sunday, which was three degrees above normal, but a much colder air mass is overspreading the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. A cold front passed Sunday evening that dropped temperatures over 30° to a Monday morning low of 37°. In wake of this frontal passage, temperatures will take a weak diurnal curve for the 48 hour time period of 8:00 AM Monday to 8:00 AM Wednesday. This November-like chill has prompted NWS to issue a Freeze Warning for Monday night into Tuesday and we will likely end our run of 33+ degree temperatures that has extended 181 days (April 20-October 17). This ranks as the 26th longest growing season since 1943.

Though this morning, started off chilly, we saw a mixture of sunshine and clouds and increasing winds. Winds gusts of 25-35 mph will be continue to be possible this afternoon. Temperatures continue to warm from the upper 30s this morning to middle to upper 40s this afternoon. There is a chance the high temperature may fail to reach 50 for the first time since April 18. If so, it will also mark the coldest high for a October 17 in 74 years. (NOTE: The temperature at the start of the calendar day was 48°, assuming we do not reach 48+ again for the afternoon, this will be recorded as our official maximum temperature for today).

INDY TO SEE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON?
A low level pressure trough will generature a few lake enhanced snow showers that will get pulled far enough to have some minimal impacts to Central Indiana. Though we are not expecting any accumulation, it could reduce visibility. Since there isn't a lot of moisture being injected, this will not last very long. The best chance will be anytime tonight between 10:00 PM to 5:00 AM. Could see it also mix with rain as well given temps will be hovering in the lower to middle 30s during these few hours. The last time we had measurable snow was on April 18th. If you are traveling overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, be sure to watch out for some slick spots.

FORECAST LOWS FOR TUESDAY AM	FORECAST LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AM
FORECAST SURFACE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS THROUGH DAY 2.5	48-HOUR FORECAST RADAR FROM 8AM MONDAY to 8AM TUESDAY

COLD AIR FADES, WARMER AIR INVADE
The cold open to the week will not persist all the way through to the weekend. As high pressure slides in, skies will continue to brighten for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and allow slightly warmer temperatures to move in. It won't be much but it will help us just enough to get back towards the 50s. We will get on the backside of high pressure for Thursday and Friday and with a southwesterly air flow, this will aid temperatures in reaching 55+ for highs to wrap up the week. We should reach middle to upper 60s on Friday. By the weekend, a warm front will boost temps back into the 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. Gusty winds will continue to mix in. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny Skies seems feasible each afternoon from Tuesday to Sunday with no additional precipitation.

FORECAST HIGH FOR TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18	FORECAST HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19	FORECAST HIGH FOR THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20
FORECAST HIGH FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 21	FORECAST HIGH FOR SATURDAY, OCTOBER 22	FORECAST HIGH FOR SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23

ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTS
We generally don't think of a drought in colder months but so far we have only received 0.02" of rain thus far this month. October 2022 is quickly rising in the ranks to the top as one of the most driest for the first 17 days for any month of October on record. 5th driest since 1943. This dry pattern goes a little farther back to the last week of September. This is the 4th driest September 25 - October 17 in 65 years. Drier periods of weather can periodically lead to elevated fire danger when coupled with low relative humidity and increased winds. Keep close eye on the forecast in the days ahead for future "Red Flag Warning" headlines.

***8 DAY WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18 AND ENDING TUESDAY, OCTOBER 25***