Wednesday, June 27, 2012

And the Heat Wave Begins

Good Evening! I come with nothing but bad news. I'm starting to sound like a broken record. Hot and Dry sums up the past 2 months and no improvements are in sight. We climbed back to the 90s this afternoon. Highs temps looks to stay above the 90° mark for most of the next 10 days. The summer sizzle is on and over the next week we'll not only be seeing the hottest weather in 24 years but also challenging record high temperatures, some of which set back in the Dust Bowl years in the 1930s.

June 2012
Temperatures are finishing slightly above normal this month. The month started 10° below normal. But a stretch of hot days in the middle lingering into the end of the month ironed the temperatures out. As of yesterday, we've recorded 21 consecutive days with temps 80° and above. In the middle of that, we recorded 4 consecutive days with temps 90° and above. So far this month we've recorded one day with a high temp in the 60s (June 1st), 4 in the 70s, 13 in 80s, and 8 days in the 90s. This makes the average high 85°. For low temps, we've recorded one morning in the 40s (June 2nd), 10 days in the 50s, 10 in the 60s, and 5 in the 70s. This make the average low 62°, which puts the average monthly temp at 73°.
As for precipitation, we are well below were we should be. Right now running nearly 4" below normal for the month and over" below normal for the year in Indianapolis. We WILL very well finish as not only the driest June on Record but driest month EVER in Indianapolis Weather History since record keeping began in 1870. The Driest June on Record was set back in 1988 with 0.36". March 1910 holds the driest month ever with 0.07". Right now, we stand at 0.05".

Rainfall Deficit Around the State
Location Year to Date Precipitation (through June 27) Departure from Average June Precipitation
(through June 27)
Departure from Average
Indianapolis 15.11 -  6.11 0.05 -3.77
Lafayette 11.06 -  6.66 0.31 -3.39
Muncie 12.94 -  6.83 0.70 -3.50
Terre Haute 12.53 -  9.94 0.23 -3.80
Bloomington 11.95 -12.35 0.20 -4.21
Shelbyville 13.10 -  8.72 0.05 -3.99
Indy - Eagle Creek 13.15 -  7.66 0.01 -3.99


Drought Analysis

Today marked the 23rd consecutive day without measurable rainfall at Indianapolis International Airport. Indy hasn't recorded any measurable rainfall since June 4th and this has been quite a concern this month. With lack of rain, lawns are browning out and water levels in lakes, rivers, and/or seas are declining. If this dry pattern continues, and the heat continues to sizzle many cities in the state will be under water restrictions. Be Conservative and don't water your lawn during the day when the water will evaporate. Instead water before sunrise or after sunset. Watch your shower usage time. With the increased risk for fires, firefighters will need an ample amount of water supply. For tips on Water Conservation click HERE.

Persistent Dryness+Hot Temps+Low Relative Humidity+Moderate Winds=Wildfires

I've seen many reports of fires this month to due to improperly disposed cigarettes butts. Do NOT throw them out your vehicles window or flick them on the ground. Also, don't go heavy on the mulch. Mulch fires has also been on the list. The smallest spark can really get a fire going. In fact, friction from a blown tire on a semi that made contact with the grass sparked up three large brush fires along a stretch of about two or three miles on Interstate 69 back on June 8th near the Madison/Hamilton County line. Here's the story from FOX 59 Indianapolis, IN.


Burn Ban
As dry conditions continue to persist, many more counties are being shaded in red or orange to the burn ban map. Last Monday Morning, I looked at it and we were at 20. Wednesday it was up to 34. Before the weekend up to 48. Sunday,54. Monday Afternoon, 56. Now this Wednesday Evening the number has risen to 72. There are 92 counties in the state so this equates to 78% of the state being under a burn ban. This means campfires, bonfires, burning leaves or trash, and the use of fireworks are all prohibited. With the upcoming holiday I will note that by state law, fireworks cannot be banned from usuage during certain times between June 29th-July 9th. For more details visit my blog July 4th Fireworks Safety Tips.

Warnings, Advisories, & Alerts

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY MANY HOOSERS HAVE EVER SEEN IN
THEIR LIFE. HIGHS COULD REACH 106 IN SOME PLACES...AND AT LEAST
MAKE IT TO 102.

* IMPACTS: WATCH OUT FOR HEAT STROKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR
LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER.

PETS WILL NEED PLENTY OF WATER AND SHOULD NOT BE LEFT IN CARS.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...EXTREME FIRE DANGER THURSDAY...

.HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 105 DEGREES WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-280315-
/O.CON.KIND.FW.W.0002.120628T1500Z-120629T0100Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
305 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 CARROLL...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 028 WARREN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 029 TIPPECANOE...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 030 CLINTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 031 HOWARD...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 035 FOUNTAIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 MONTGOMERY...
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 037 BOONE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 038 TIPTON...
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040
MADISON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 DELAWARE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE
042 RANDOLPH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 043 VERMILLION...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 044 PARKE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 045 PUTNAM...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 046 HENDRICKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 MARION...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 048 HANCOCK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 HENRY...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 051 VIGO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 052 CLAY...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 053 OWEN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 054 MORGAN...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 JOHNSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 SHELBY...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 057 RUSH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 060 SULLIVAN...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 061 GREENE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 062 MONROE...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 063 BROWN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 BARTHOLOMEW...
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 065 DECATUR...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 067 KNOX...
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 068 DAVIESS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 069 MARTIN...
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 070 LAWRENCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 071 JACKSON
AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 072 JENNINGS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 90S.

* LIGHTNING...NONE.

* IMPACTS...MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA ARE ALREADY
UNDER BURN BANS DUE TO THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday & Friday
Outside Furnace Heat In Store For Thursday and Friday Afternoon As A Large Ridge of High Pressure Expands into Indiana. Humidity will slowly creep up but still remain relatively low under sunny skies and a brisk southwest wind. The threat for an elevated fire danger has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Red Flag Warning (info above) which might be extended into the weekend as well. Also a knozone action day has been declared for Thursday Afternoon.
I'm forecasting a high of 102° for Thursday & 100° Friday.
THURSDAY RECORD HIGH 101° (1934)-----------------FRIDAY RECORD HIGH 100° (1934)

I'm forecasting a temperature of 79° for Friday Morning Low And 77° for Saturday Morning Low
Warmest Low Temp Records: Friday AM-79° (1881).....Saturday AM-80° (1972)

Weekend
Weekend rain chances are pretty slim to none. The heat will continue to sizzle and the sun will contine to shine.
I'm forecasting a high of 97° for Saturday & 99° for Sunday.
SATURDAY RECORD HIGH 97° (1933)------------------SUNDAY RECORD HIGH 97° (1970)

I'm forecasting a temperature of 77° for Sunday Morning Low and 76° for Monday Morning Low.
Warmest Low Temp Records: Sunday AM-81° (1872).......Monday AM-78° (1872)

Next Week
The heat wiil continue to prevail especially for the first half of the week. Mid to upper 90s expected pretty much until the holiday. May get into the low 90s at the end of the next work week. Rain chances are still pretty nill.

June 2012 Temperature Data
Actual Avg High----84.6°. This is 2.6°above the normal avg high of 82° for June.
Actual Avg Low-----61.9°. This is near the normal monthly avg low of 62° for June.
Actual Avg Temp---73.2°. This is 1.2° above the normal monthly avg temp of 72° for June.

Precipitation Data
Precip Since JUN 27---NONE. This is 3.77" below the normal 3.82" for June 1-27th.
Precip Since JUN 1----0.05". This is 4.20" below the monthly normal 4.25" for June.
Precip Since MAR 1----10.25". This is 5.99" below the normal 16.24" for Mar 1-Jun 27.
Precip Since JAN 1----15.11". This is 6.11" below the normal 21.22" for Jan 1-Jun 27.

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