Snow and Cold Temperatures to Impact Indianapolis

INFORMATION IN THIS BLOG WAS GATHERED BEFORE 5PM. ANY UPDATES ON WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS BLOG AT THIS TIME
*NEARLY ALL INDIANA COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY
*THOSE COUNTIES IN NORTHERN INDIANA WILL BE UNDER A WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY

A winter storm will impact the Hoosier state beginning overnight Saturday Night continuing into Sunday and ending late Sunday Night. This storm system will have the potential of bringing snow in excess of 8" falling heavily at times. Visibility will significantly be reduced. Winds could potentially blow in excess of 30+ mph causing whiteout conditions and blowing and drifting snow. Indy Snow Force will be out and about doing their best to keep roads as clear as possible but weather conditions may make it impossible to keep up. Travel is highly discouraged and should only be limited to emergency travel only.

"We are requesting you not drive in the middle of the storm, I want to be very clear about this, if you are driving in the middle of the storm you put yourself in danger and our first responders in danger if they have to come rescue you."
-Department of Public Safety Director Troy Riggs.

If you feel travel is absolutely necessary, use extreme caution and expect a very slow travel on roads and give plenty of time to reach your destination. Be aware, there may be some road closures. Also, city officials are urging residents to avoid parking on streets, if possible, after 7pm Sunday as private contractors will plow residential streets if or when snow exceeds 6" by Sunday Night. Temperatures will drastically drop below zero Sunday Night and persist for several days. Frost Bite and Hypothermia will occur in a matter of minutes with wind chills -30° to -50°. If precautions are not taken, death can occur. If your power goes out or you can't get home, there are 17 Indy Parks community centers being converted into temporary warming shelters Monday and Tuesday. Here's a list of those shelters along with hours and contact information:



SPECIAL NOTES: Make sure your gas tank is full. Check on your elderly neighbors and make sure your pets are warm. Try to bring pets inside. Also, trash service has been suspended Monday and Tuesday in Marion Country. At this distance, trash collection should resume on Wednesday. Also when water freezes it expands. Its recommended to leave atleast one of your faucets dripping during extreme cold temperatures to prevent pipes from bursting.

Some light snow or flurries will be falling around or shortly after midnight. Those in Southern Indiana could see some rain. Accumulations by sunrise (8AM) may be between 1"-3". Here's simulated radar snapshots at 12AM tonight (left), and 9AM Sunday (center) from 12z 4k NAM model run. The image on the right is total accumulations from 12z Euro by 7AM Sunday.


You can see in the center image above that snow intensity is increasing in Western Indiana before sunrise reaching the city by sunrise. The greatest chance for heavy snow will be between 7AM-7PM. Below is simulated radar snapshots for 1PM, 6PM, and 10PM,respectively. Snow tapers off around 10pm. There may be some leftover flurries or light snow showers but little to no accumulations should be expected around that time.



Total snowfall accumulations around the state can be anywhere between 2" in far Southern Indiana to as high as 15" in some parts of Central Indiana. Here's total snowfall accumulations from 3 of the most used weather models, the GFS, European, and NAM. Something worth noting is, this is based of a 10:1 ratio. A higher ratio is likely meaning more snow may fall than depicted in the images below. The NAM model to the far right is snow depth by Monday AM.



Below is a look at raw data from 12z Euro, 12z GFS, and 12z NAM. Area highlighted green is liquid precipitation (QPF). Area highlighted red is temps (Celcuis). Here's a range of snow totals based on a 10:1 ratio to a 15:1 ratio for each of these 3 models:
EUROPEAN: 8.8"-13.2"
GFS: 6.6"-9.9"
NAM: 10.8"-16.2"
3 MODEL LOW TO HIGH: 6.6"-16.2"
3 MODEL AVG: 8.7"-13.1"


The average liquid amount between these 3 most used weather models is 0.87" so under a 10:1 ratio this would mean 8.7" of snow would fall but under a 15:1 ratio 13.1" would fall. So, 8"-13" is a suitable snowfall forecast for this winter storm event. The NAM model brings 16.2" of snow under a 15:1 ratio. Some areas in the state may see totals higher than 13 inches!!!

Here's some weather history info to keep in mind:

• The daily record snowfall amount on Sunday, Jan 5th is currently 3" set 37 years ago in 1977.
• The daily record snow depth amount on Sunday, Jan 5th is currently 11" set 18 years ago in 1996.
• The daily record snow depth amount on Monday, Jan 6th is currently 7" set 18 years ago in 1996 and later tied in 1999
• Only 5 times since weather records began in 1871 has 10" of snow fallen in 24 hrs:
  (1) Dec 30, 1895: 10" (2) Mar 19, 1906: 12.1" (3) Feb 16, 1910: 10" (4) Jan 15, 1965: 10.3" (5) Jan 26, 1978: 10.3"
• The last time we saw 8" of snow fall in one day was on January 28, 2009 (5 years ago)

The big story behind this winter storm is the wind and cold temps and we have the polar vortex to thank for that. Cold air that usually sits up in the Northern Hemisphere will drop into the Eastern U.S. Here's the breakdown on temps and winds chills that may even lead to potential record breaking temperatures:

SUNDAY MORNING: Temperatures will be in the low 30s or upper 20s. Winds will be light w/ "feels like" temps in the mid 20s.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Temperatures will be in the mid 20s. Winds gradually increase to 10mph-20mph. Wind Chills mid to low teens.
SUNDAY EVENING: Temperatures fall to low teens nearing single digits. NW Winds 15-25 mph. Wind Chills near or sub zero.
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT: Temperatures continue to fall to below zero. NW Winds 15-25 mph. Wind Chills -10° to -30°.
MONDAY MORNING: Temperatures are steady between -10° to -15°. Winds 15-25 mph. Wind Chill -25° to -45°.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Temperatures "Warm-up" to -10° to -5°. Winds 15-25 mph. Wind Chill -20° to -40°.
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT: Temperatures slowly fall back to -10° to -15°. Winds 15-25 mph. Wind Chill -25° to -45°.
TUESDAY MORNING: Temperatures are steady between -15° to -20°. Winds 10-20 mph. Wind Chill -35° to -50°.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Temperatures "warm-up" to -5° to 0°. Winds 5-15 mph. Wind chill -10° to -25°.
TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT: Temperatures slowly rise above zero. Winds becoming light 5-10 mph. Wind chill -5° to -15°.

Here are record temps we need to watch:
MONDAY: Record Low is -20° set 129 years ago in 1884. The record for lowest high temp is 1° also set in 1884.
TUESDAY: Record Low is -17° set 44 years ago in 1970. The record for lowest high temp is 0° also set in 1970.

These temperatures will be the coldest temperatures the city hasn't seen since January 19, 1994 when the coldest temperature (-27°) ever recorded in Indianapolis history occurred. I'm not going to beat around the bush. Those who don't take the weather serious over the next 72 hours will injure or kill themselves or others around them! Please take warnings seriously!

A FEW SPECIAL LINKS:
For weather information related to Northern counties of Indiana please refer to US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA. You can follow them on twitter at @NWSIWX and on Facebook at facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.NorthernIN.gov

For weather information related to Central & Southern counties of Indiana please refer to US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA. You can follow them on twitter at @NWSIndianapolis and on Facebook at facebook.com/pages/US-National-Weather-Service-Indianapolis-Indiana/207144502648963

For Weather information related to Eastern counties of Indiana near and into Ohio please refer to US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH. You can follow them on twitter at @NWSILN and on Facebook at facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WilmingtonOH.gov

For weather information related to the Tri-State area of SE Illinois, NE Missouri, NW Kentucky, and SW Indiana please refer to US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH, KENTUCKY. You can follow them on twitter at @NWSPaducah and on Facebook at facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Paducah.gov

Before heading out, residents should check the Indiana County Travel Advisory Map at http://www.in.gov/dhs/traveladvisory/. It’s updated with information from the county emergency management agencies and describes the conditions for a travel warning, watch, advisory and caution.

For road updates, please visit http://indot.carsprogram.org or call 800-261-ROAD. DO NOT call local law enforcement or 9-1-1 for road information. These lines need to be left open for emergency calls.

Many may need to be rescued during this winter storm event. Local Law Enforcement, Emergency Responders, and Towing Services may become overwhelmed. They will do their best to get to you ASAP! DO NOT PANIC AND PLEASE BE PATIENT! Make sure you have an emergency car and home kit ready in case you become stranded. For more information please visit http://www.ready.gov/winter-weather