This mild spell is a product of dry soils. September received less than 2" of rain [89% of the total rain for the month fell on one day - Sep 27] making it a sub-par month for precipitation, ranking as the 39th driest (September) on record. 4 out of the last 5 September finished below normal. October has slightly improved on September's rainfall numbers but we are still running almost 2.5" below normal for the season and over 5" for the year. Over 91% of the state is abnormally dry with over 63% of the state in a moderate drought. A new map will be issued on Thursday that may show equally, if not worse, conditions.
Weekend Ended on a Cold Note But Week is Already Seeing Fast Improvements
Ridging has expanded across our region allowing a quick turn around in temps from a departing trough. We saw the temps drop from a high on 68 Saturday afternoon to only 58 on Sunday and the low dropped from 47 on Sunday morning to 39 on Monday. Those numbers jumped back up to a Tuesday morning low of 48 and a high of 78. That high of 78 was only 3° shy of the record of 81 set in 1963. The average low and high for this time of the year is 43 / 62 so the day was overall 10° above normal.
TUESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY
Clouds have returned and the extra blanket will keep temps up in the upper 50s & lower 60s across Central Indiana to start the day on Wednesay. While some moisture will inject in, it will have some difficulty on reaching lower levels of the atmosphere as it tries to combat drier air at the surface. Any rain that can make its way down on Wednesday will be on the very light side (i.e. sprinkles). Winds will pick back up again gusting to 20-30 mph in the afternoon. As one wave departs, setting up for optimal dry conditions Wednesday night, another wave will trail behind for Thursday and Friday. Again, these may not bring any meaningful precipitation to our area but still worth keeping changes for scattered showers in the forecast. Temperatures will continue to hover in the lower 60s for morning lows and middle to upper 70s for afternoon highs. If we can somehow muster any sunshine any of these days, I wouldn't completely rule out lower 80s which would be in record breaking territory. These could be beyond reach though.
End of Month Cold Blast Looms
The pattern will start to break down with a stalled frontal boundary over the weekend. Waves are likely to ride the front into Indiana finally bringing a greater threat for a period of showers to our forecast area. We'll still likely be on the warm side of the front for Saturday but as we lose our grip on the warmth we'll likely cool to a high in the 60s breaking the string of 70s from this week. Rain cooled air will continue for Sunday as well. As this trough continues to deepen, we'll continue to see the temperature drop more and more each day to close out the month. Still working out the kinks with how long moisture lasts and when it will be essentially be "cut-off". If we do have any lingering moisture around by Tuesday, it will be cold enough to produce either a few flurries or a wintry precipitation mix. Precipitation or not, it will be a rather miserable Halloween with chilly air temperatures and a freezing wind chill factor. Drier but chilly conditions are likely to open the first week of November.
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As we get ready to close out the month of October and enter November, we are now overdue for our first freeze of the season. If we don't hit 32 on October 31, it will marked the 6th time in over 30 years, we've seen the first occurrence arrive November 1 or later, which only makes up about 26% of years on record this late in year. I have a complete list of first fall freeze in a previous post. Click HERE for more information.
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