Coldest Week of Season Coming

The Warm start to the weekend is ending. Polar Plunge comes early next week which will be the coldest in 2 years. More Details Below.


Before I get into the forecast i'd like to go over the numbers for the month so far.

DATE	HIGH	LOW	PRECIP	SNOW	SPECIAL NOTES
JAN 1	31	14	0.01	0.3"	This Was The Last Time We Saw Measurable Snowfall
JAN 2	22	5	NONE	NONE	(1) Coldest Day of Month & Season So Far (2) Coldest Morning since -1° on Feb. 10, 2011 (3) Coldest Afternoon since 19° on Jan. 19, 2012
JAN 3	30	10	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 4	29	18	NONE	NONE
JAN 5	38	18	0.01"	TRACE
JAN 6	35	25	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 7	36	16	NONE	NONE
JAN 8	43	23	NONE	NONE
JAN 9	48	31	0.10"	NONE
JAN 10	43	29	0.09"	NONE
JAN 11	57	43	1.09"	NONE
JAN 12	64	46	1.28"	NONE	(1) Warmest Day of Month (2) Record Rainfall beats previous record of 1.19" in 1930
JAN 13	56	22	1.27"	NONE	5 Day Rainfall Total 3.83"
JAN 14	23	16	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 15	30	19	NONE	NONE
JAN 16	33	23	NONE	NONE
JAN 17	40	21	NONE	NONE
JAN 18	40	19	NONE	NONE

-Average High is 38.8°. This is 3.6°: above normal.
-Average Low is 22.1°. This is 1.6° above normal.
-Average Temperature (combo of high and low) is 30.4°. This 2.4° above normal.
-The months precipitation amount is 3.85". This is 2.22" above normal for the period of January 1st-18th. The average amount for the entire month is 2.66". Right now, we have 1.19" above normal for the entire month.
-The months snowfall amount is 0.3". This is 4.6" below normal for the period of January 1st-18th. The average amount for the entire month is 8.6". Right now, we are 8.3" below normal for the entire month. If the month ended today, it would be the 9th least snowiest January on record.

Yesterday's Observations My forecasted high was 40. The actual high was 40. The average high is 35. The high was 5° above normal.
My forecasted low was 21. The actual low was 19. The average low is 20. The low was 1° below normal.
Overall, the average temperature yesterday was 30°. This day finished 2° above normal.
We did have plenty of sunshine with very little clouds. The winds was a bit breezy topping 23 mph with a gust speed topping 31.

Today
There was plenty of warmth and sunshine this afternoon. We had a high of 53° after a morning low of 37°. Winds continue to be on the breezy side with speeds between 20-25mph and gusts up to 30mph.
The average high for today is 35, while the average low again is 20. Temperatures were running about 17-18° above normal today.



TONIGHT
Temperatures will begin to slip back after sunset but we'll still be in the warm sector before an approaching cold front passes. We should be around the mid, if not upper 30s around midnight. This will be the high for Sunday. We will continue to keep the breeze throughout the overnight and Sunday daytime hours.

SUNDAY
Early in the morning the first of 2 cold fronts will move through the city. Temperatures will fall back to the low 20s by 7am. Temperatures will likely struggle to rebound. We will be under a mixture of sunshine. Temperatures will only go up a few degrees, not much though. I don't buy into the theory of going back towards 30 in the afternoon but if we had more sunshine and far less clouds, it certainly can be possible. I think temperatures will be in the mid 20s tomorrow afternoon.
Sunday night, temperatures fall back into the low teens.


MONDAY
As the polar vortex dips south, much bitterly cold air will come in. This will pack a big punch. A polar front will move through Monday morning bringing the coldest temperatures to the city in years. It'll be a struggle to get in the 20s. So far the coolest afternoon high is 22° back on January 2nd. We won't have a lot of moisture to work with but we can certainly squeeze out some pesky snow showers. I don't it will accumulate bit IF so, then it would certainly be very light accumulations.

TUESDAY
Tuesday Morning, temperatures plunge below the 5° low we had back on January 2nd. We'll have the coldest morning of the season since February 10, 2011 when the thermometer dipped subzero to -1°. Right now, temperatures look to flirt with that temperatures but I am going with 0° but could end up a degree or two warmer or colder. We are expecting calm winds but the slighest breeze could put the wind chill up towards -15°. I don't think afternoon temperatures will be in the single digits Tuesday, I say we reach the low teens. The last time we had an afternoon high in the single digits was 7#176; on Feburary 15, 2009. For those wondering, the record for the lowest high temperature that day is 10° originally recorded in 1889 and later again in 1930.

WEDS-FRI
For the rest of the week, temperatures won't be too much warmer but I will say the second half of the week will be warmer than the first half of the week. Most of the week though, will be below normal. There is some uncertainty as to what we could be dealing with for Thursday and Friday. Could be rain, snow, or both. Could even lead to some accumulating snowfall. For now, I called it a light wintry mix. This should become more clear in the coming days.

Snowfall is something that is hard to come by this month. We've only picked up 0.3" of snow this month and that was on 1 day, New Years Day! We did have 4 other days where we did pick up trace amounts but if the month ended now this would be the 9th least snowiest January on record. Typically, January is supposed to be the #1 most snowiest month of the year. We should be sitting at 4.9" right now. Looking at the next week, we aren't looking at any significant snow systems. We may very well finish the month with below normal snowfall. However, a season as a whole (since December 1), we are still 3.3" of snow above normal. The average snowfall amount for the entire month of January is 8.6". On January 31st, the total snowfall since October 1st should be 16.6". Right now, we've picked up 15.3" (0.2" in November, 14.8" in December, 0.3" in January so far).
Lack of snow not for just Indiana but much of the midwest, has our (midwest) region with a current snow coverage at 6.9%. This is down 70.2% since January 1st when 77.1% of the midwest region was covered in snow. For the rest of the U.S. as a nation, the current snow coverage is at 39.1%. This is down 27.5% from the 66.6% coverage we had on New Years Day.

UPCOMING...

The upcoming weather pattern will become tricky. First off, there are some concerns as to where temperatures will be for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Also, it looks like we'll have some moisture to work with that will get a few raindrops or snowflakes going on those days. I think we'll start with some rain on Thursday, a wintry mix early Friday morning, changing to snow for the rest of Friday. I can't really talk numbers here. Some fine tuning will need to be done over the days, so this forecast will be more clear so you know what your dealing with. Wouldn't hurt to prepare yourself for a few inches. Not a real big monster but something that cannot and will not go ignored. All meteorologists will likely talk about this storm here in the Ohio Valley all week.
Also, due to stratospheric warming, we may be cold for the remainder of the month. This could also lead into the first part of February as well. We are starting to get a taste of it now. I will go into more details in an upcoming blog. Standby for further developments.

DID YOU KNOW
Did you know we are now up to 208 consecutive days without a U.S tornado fatality. Every day is a new record. The previous record span was 197 days ending February 28, 1987.


INDIANA WEATHER HISTORY
This weekend in Indiana Weather History, New Whiteland set an all time state record low temperature of -36° on January 19, 1994. Also, on January 20, 1985, the temperatures dipped back to -22° which resulted in freezing and bursting pipes.

***7 DAY OUTLOOK***

JAN. 20	JAN. 21	JAN. 22	JAN. 23	JAN. 24	JAN. 25	JAN. 26
SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNEDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY	FLURRIES?	CLOUDS/SUN FLURRIES?	MOSTLY SUNNY	WINTRY MIX?	WINTRY MIX?	CLOUDY SOME SUN?
	ARCTIC	BLAST		ACCUM.	SNOWFALL?
37	18	13	23	33	27	19
12	0	8	15	20	10	4