Storm Chances Going Up, Hottest Temps So Far This Year

Good Morning! There is so much to go over I don't know where to begin. First off, welcome to April! We are done with the first 7, or 8 days rather, and overall its been a dry and semi-below normal first week. April 7th ended 1" behind precipitation (rain) for the 1st week and 3.5° below normal for the week. Here's the chart for the first weeks temperature observations. No precipitation was recorded.

DATE OF MONTH	OBSERVED HIGH	AVERAGE HIGH	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	OBSERVED LOW	AVERAGE LOW	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	ACTUAL AVG TEMP	NORMAL AVG TEMP	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
APR 1st	46	58	-12	29	38	-9	38	48	-10
APR 2nd	45	59	-14	24	38	-14	35	48	-13
APR 3rd	48	59	-11	25	39	-14	37	49	-12
APR 4th	57	59	-2	34	39	-5	46	49	-3
APR 5th	59	60	-1	34	39	-5	47	50	-3
APR 6th	71	60	+11	39	40	-1	55	50	+5
APR 7th	74	61	+13	56	40	+16	65	50	+15
APR 8th	74	61	+13	56	40	+16	65	50	+15

Our first 70° day came on Saturday. We actually hit 71. This was the warmest day since our last 70 on November 10th. This was a 146 day span. Last year, the span was 119 days (November 14th, 2011-March 12th, 2012). Even warmer Sunday and Monday. The high was 74°. That was the warmest temperature since October 25th when we hit 76! Its been 164 days since the temp has been 75 or above. Its been 207 days since we last hit 80 (September 13th) and going even warmer, its been 226 days since the last 90. That was on August 25th. Shall I dare? Yes, I forgot one more...TRIPLE DIGITS! Last one of those was back in July on the 25th, 257 days ago! We are approaching our average date for our 1st 80 which is April 20th. Models do not currently show that this will happen by then. More details later in the blog.



A stationary boundary is positioned overhead. This means much of the Central & Northern portions of the state is the zone for Isolated Thunderstorms anytime of the day, really this afternoon & evening. Those south of the boundary we'll likely stay dry. Much of the state is encompassed in a warm zone. All eyes are set out to the west where a low and cold front will sweep west to east from the Plains into the Ohio Valley Region over the next 72 hours. Mondays storm reports totals to 4 tornadoes, 25 wind, & 37 hail events.



There's going to be some Isolated Thunderstorms spread amongst several states today across the midwest region but tomorrow a storm will bring the threat for severe weather to Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana & much of the Ohio Valley Region for again Wednesday & even Thursday. Impacts of this storm hits areas of Eastern U.S. Thursday & Friday for places like Alabama, Georgia, Florida Panhandle, Pennsylvania, perhaps the Virginians (including West Virginia) and Carolinians. This looks to come in as a squall line of thunderstorms. There's always atleast a 1% chance for a tornado to form with any thunderstorm. SPC has place Indiana under a slight risk for severe weather which shaded yellow. The risk of straight line damaging winds, heavy downpours, vivid lightning and Isolated Tornadoes are all in play here. The risk for hail is minimal but possible.



Also, here's a look at the total projected rainfall by Thursday Night.



For all of your Indiana Severe Weather needs, turn to storms chasers BAM CHASE TEAM (Brian, Amanda, Michael) You can follow them on twitter @BAM_Chase and on Facebook at BAM Chase LLC. You can also visit their webpage at www.bamchase.net. You can choose to become a premium member for daily in depth forecasts & video discussions. Also Live HD video stream of chases. Cost are available on 3 different affordable payment plans. (1) $15 for 3 month subscription (2) $30 for 6 month subscription (3) $50 for yearly subscription which offers a $10 savings. For more information & registration, click HERE


This has been one tough week to forecast but it finally appears things are becoming more clear. Again, we'll stay warm Today and Wednesday. Thursday is rather difficult. We'll have nearly steady temperatures for the first half of the day then temperatures look to fall back in the afternoon. Here's a general idea of what the GFS, Euro, & NAM models are saying for Thursdays temps. At the bottom, I've thrown in my prediction on where I think temps will go.

MODEL	12AM	4AM	8AM	12PM	4PM	8PM	12AM
EURO	65	63	62	66	68	63	49
GFS	63	62	62	64	61	56	48
NAM	66	65	63	64	59	55	43
MY TAKE	66	63	61	62	59	53	45

Some more fine tuning will needs to go into that. I want to wait til Wednesday to see where things will go but realistically the passing of a cold front Thursday Morning should drop temps back not really go up. Long Trusted Euro is going from about 62 at 8am up to 68 by 4pm. These are one of times I actually don't agree with the solution they spit out. I'm favoring NAM model for Thursday. I think that seems the closest to what may happen.

Severe Thunderstorms aren't the only thing hitting the U.S. this week. The Weather Channel has named another winter storm, yes this means SNOW! Winter Storm Walda dropping snow for parts of the Western U.S. in Wyoming, Utah, the Dakotas, and Western parts of Nebraska. This April winter storm is also impacting flight operations at Denver International Airport where over 200 flights have already been cancelled. The changes are already occuring. Denver's temperature went from 72 Monday afternoon to 15 this Tuesday morning. Thats a 57-degree drop in 17 hours! Remarkable!
Snow totals can came in as high as 2 feet in the vicinity of Colorado! Denver is expecting 8"-12". The storm will track to the Northeast impacting the Twin Cities (Minneapolis) and later Wisconsin & Northern parts of Michigan (in its weakened state).



Looking ahead to next week, GFS model primarily keeps a below normal weather pattern from Thursday out to most of the rest of the month. Whereas the European Model comes in just slightly a little bit warmer but has a 30° temperature spread between Northern Indiana in the 40s, to Southern Indiana in the 70s. Here's a look at the Euro for Tuesday 17th. By the way, GFS has Central and Northern Parts of Indiana in the 50s with 60s in Southern Indiana. I suspect Indianapolis will either be in the upper 50s or perhaps low 60s.



Arctic Oscillation, cold weather indicator (seen below), starts its trend into the negative April 11th and stays there until the 15th and begins to climb back into the positive. Based off this, you can say that from April 11th-15th we'll likely be below normal. So next it looks like we'll likely start off cool but its possible we may finish warmer! We'll watch changes and update.


As for precipitation next week, we have a shot on Sunday and Wednesday. I'll talk about those chances later in future blog.

One last thing I want to talk about is the return of Allergy Season. Yes, Pollen Count is back and on the rise. It extended out til about October last year. Each year, getting worse too! 20% increase by 2020 is expected. Lately except this year, Spring is arriving earlier & the winters are becoming more milder. This all spells bad news for the easily enabled sneezers. Few tips; Wash your linen regularly, shower everyday, take the necessary allergy medication, and if you can, stay indoors from about 6am-10am. This is when pollen counts are at its highest in the day. For starts, tree pollen is the main concern now here in the Midwest. In May to July its grass pollen, and from the end of July to September its ragweed. Once we get our first freeze that usually puts an end to the pollen and also decreases mold count. Indianapolis is ranked 59 out of the top 100 worst cities for allergies. The Indianapolis Star has an article on allergies. You can read the article by clicking on the articles title, Spring's arrival has dark side for those who suffer from allergies
Allergy Forecast is expected to be high today with the rising temps but rain ramps up late Wednesday and Thursday which will ease up the pollen count.


***EXCLUSIVE 8 DAY OUTLOOK***
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING SEASONAL!
AVG HIGH: 61 | AVG LOW: 41

APR. 9	APR. 10	APR. 11	APR. 12	APR. 13	APR. 14	APR. 15	APR. 16
TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY
SCT'D STORM SOME SUN	PM T'STORM	AM T'STORMS	PARTLY SUNNY	PARTLY SUNNY	CLOUDY SOME SUN?	CHANCE OF RAIN	CHANCE OF RAIN
	HALF INCH	INCH POSSIBLE	COOLER	CHILLY	WARMER	MILD	MILD
77	77	66↓	44	53	68	67	60
62	61	38	32	38	50	46	44