Rain Tonight, Summer Heat Mid Week

Here's a LIVE look at radar. Depending on when your viewing this, conditions may vary from what I have written here.



Severe Weather Potential is a NO GO!
The rain/storms passing through Indiana don't have a history of severe weather reports as it passed through Illinois. At best, we COULD see a heavy downpour and a few flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder BUT damaging winds, hail, or tornadoes SHOULD NOT be expected. I'd expect shower/weak storm chances throughout the overnight hours ending in the morning. Not only is severe weather chances slim to none tonight but for Monday as well.
Here's a look at the SPC Day 1 (left) and Day 2 (right) convective outlooks for severe weather. Day 1 is for Sunday Evening/Overnight and Day 2 is for ALL day Monday.



HOW MUCH RAIN?
Rainfall totals will vary throughout the state. If all the dynamics is setup in the atmosphere to support it, some communities could see over an inch of rain. For Indianapolis, we are expecting anywhere in between 0.75"-1" by Tuesday morning. Here's a comparison of various models runs today between the GFS & NAM models on precipitation for Monday & Tuesday. You can see most are favoring about an inch total of precipitation. The 12z European model run came in with 0.83". 18z GFS says 0.95" and 18z NAM says 0.69".



Here's a look back at the observations over the first 8 days
JUNE 1: High 76 Low 62 Precip 0.76"
JUNE 2: High 71 Low 56 Precip Trace
JUNE 3: High 68 Low 48 Precip None
JUNE 4: High 76 Low 52 Precip None
JUNE 5: High 81 Low 58 Precip None
JUNE 6: High 79 Low 63 Precip Trace
JUNE 7: High 74 Low 61 Precip None
JUNE 8: High 78 Low 60 Precip None
The average high is 75 and the average low is 57. Average temp off 66 comes out 2° below normal.
From this point on the average high should be above 80 and the average low should be above 60.


Monday, there will be some gaps of dry weather but there could be some scattered thunderstorms across the state especially with the peak heating of the day. Conditions are expected to dry up Tuesday and Wednesday and the heat is expected to return with highs into the 80s for a good portion of the next 7-10 days. We could be challenging our first 90° day of 2013 as well on Wednesday. I have yet to add that date to the following chart below. Your looking at an 11 year history of first 70, 80, and 90° days of each year and the official temperature observed on that day.

YEAR	FIRST 70° DATE	70° TEMP RECORDED	FIRST 80° DATE	80° TEMP RECORDED	FIRST 90° DATE	90° TEMP RECORDED
2013	APRIL 06	71°	APRIL 09	81°	????	????
2012	MARCH 12	71°	MARCH 14	81°	MAY 26	90°
2011	MARCH 17	74°	APRIL 10	83°	MAY 30	90°
2010	MARCH 10	72°	APRIL 1	82°	JUNE 11	90°
2009	MARCH 06	70°	APRIL 24	84°	JUNE 19	91°
2008	APRIL 07	71°	APRIL 23	82°	JUNE 08	90°
2007	MARCH 14	77°	MARCH 13	80°	JUNE 07	90°
2006	MARCH 12	70°	APRIL 13	82°	JULY 02	90°
2005	MARCH 30	77°	APRIL 10	80°	JUNE 05	90°
2004	MARCH 24	70°	APRIL 17	82°	N/A	N/A
2003	MARCH 16	74°	APRIL 15	81°	JULY 03	90°

Todays official high of 80° marked the 14th 80° day of the year. Here's some more information on the heat of 2013 so far. Nothing too extraordinary compared to the last 2 summers.



We are getting into what is called a "Rim of Fire" or "Ring of Fire" weather pattern setup. I posted this image below in my last blog.



There's some uncertainty regarding the timing and the track but with this type of setup it could put Indiana in a path for a mesoscale convective system (severe storm system) Wednesday Night into Thursday. Rainfall totals from this system is already coming in at 0.75"-1.25" from this system. I'm not going to say this will occur but we could even be talking of a potential "Derecho". Think of "Derechos" as a tornado without the rotation. They are straight line windstorms that can do damage similar to an EF-1 tornado with winds 60mph-100mph. Indiana and other nearby states in the midwest averages 1 derecho per year. These have occurred in over the past few years. The summer time is the most favorable time of the year for them to occur.



More details on this should become available as the pattern emerges. This will all be dependent on whether we'll actually be under that dome of hot air as well. If so, this will keep us capped off from storm development. Here's an illustration that better explains what "capped" means.



***8 DAY WEATHER FORECAST***

JUNE 9	JUNE 10	JUNE 11	JUNE 12	JUNE 13	JUNE 14	JUNE 15	JUNE 16
MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY
SCT'D STORMS	PARTLY SUNNY	SUNNY PM T'STORM?	CHANCE OF STORMS	PARTLY SUNNY	PARTLY SUNNY	CHANCE OF STORMS	CHANCE OF STORMS
DAMP	WARMER	HOT!!	MILD	MILD	MILD	MILD	MILD
75	83	89	78	80	81	83	86
63	70	70	59	61	72	65	69