Winter 2014-15 Forecast

Forecasting the weather is not as easy as it sounds. There are constant changes in the weather patterns and supercomputers used to forecast the weather spit out well over a trillion calculations per second. Which is the right way? Your guess is just as good as mine. This is why I typically go off an AVERAGE number of data that it not too high or too low. Since its evident that the almighty El Nino pattern that was spoken to exist this winter didn't exactly materialize pretty much means a few things:
1) We will not have a dry and warm winter
2) We will see a winter with conditions favorable for normal to below normal temperatures and possibly normal to above normal snowfall

This year, I compiled a list of the all the years since 1950 where we had a weak el nino winter or a neutral winter (a winter that does not favor a el nino or la nina pattern), or also "analog" years. Analog years are years that have seen a similar trend to this year. This year we've challenged cold temperature records we've haven't seen since 1980, but most recently 2009. I factored those two year's observations when making out my forecast.
It is impossible to accurately predict each snow event and how much will fall. I mostly comprised this winter weather forecast by simply AVERAGING these following 28 years. Historical data can give an indication as to what we can generally expect in the immediate future.

2013-14:
December - Avg Temp 29.9 | Precip 4.44" | Snow: 8.8"
January - Avg Temp 20.1 | Precip 2.34" | Snow: 26.9"
February - Avg Temp 22.3 | Precip 2.45" | Snow: 16.5"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 24.1 | Precip 9.23" | Snow: 52.2

2012-13
December - Avg Temp 38.4 | Precip 2.58 | Snow: 14.8"
January - Avg Temp 29.9 | Precip 5.51" | Snow: 2.4"
February - Avg Temp 30.9 | Precip 2.27" | Snow: 2.6"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 33 | Precip 10.36" | Snow: 19.8"

2009-10:
December - Avg Temp 31.1 | Precip 3.30 | Snow: 7.7"
January - Avg Temp 24.6 | Precip 1.22" | Snow: 7.8"
February - Avg Temp 26.0 | Precip 0.97" | Snow: 17.5"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 27.2 | Precip 5.49" | Snow: 33"

2006-07:
December - Avg Temp 38.7 | Precip 5.24 | Snow: 0.9"
January - Avg Temp 32.5 | Precip 4.41" | Snow: 5.8"
February - Avg Temp 19.7 | Precip 2.77" | Snow: 18.2"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 30.3 | Precip 12.42 | Snow: 24.9"

2004-05:
December - Avg Temp 31.8 | Precip 1.95 | Snow: 13.1"
January - Avg Temp 30.7 | Precip 9.39" | Snow: 10.7"
February - Avg Temp 36.3 | Precip 2.59" | Snow: 2.5"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 32.9 | Precip 13.93" | Snow: 26.3"

2003-04:
December - Avg Temp 34.4 | Precip 3.48" | Snow: 4.8"
January - Avg Temp 25.2 | Precip 4.65" | Snow: 10"
February - Avg Temp 32.1 | Precip 0.77" | Snow: 1.8"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 30.6 | Precip 8.9" | Snow: 16.6"

2001-02:
December - Avg Temp 38.1 | Precip 3.01" | Snow: 0.7"
January - Avg Temp 35.1 | Precip 2.48" | Snow: 4.6"
February - Avg Temp 35.6 | Precip 1.67" | Snow: 4.8"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 36.3 | Precip 7.16" | Snow: 10.1"

1996-97:
December - Avg Temp 34.4 | Precip 2.75" | Snow: 14.6"
January - Avg Temp 24.3 | Precip 4.47" | Snow: 12.9"
February - Avg Temp 35.9 | Precip 3.92" | Snow: 3.1"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 31.5 | Precip 11.14" | Snow: 30.6"

1993-94:
December - Avg Temp 32.4 | Precip 2.18" | Snow: 5.6"
January - Avg Temp 21.8 | Precip 2.68" | Snow: 14"
February - Avg Temp 29.6 | Precip 1.39" | Snow: 3.9"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 27.9 | Precip 6.25" | Snow: 23.5"

1992-93:
December - Avg Temp 33.3 | Precip 1.89" | Snow: 3.7"
January - Avg Temp 31.6 | Precip 3.29" | Snow: 3.1"
February - Avg Temp 27.4 | Precip 2.31" | Snow: 17.2"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 30.8 | Precip 7.49" | Snow: 24"

1990-91:
December - Avg Temp 34.6 | Precip 7.72" | Snow: 9.6"
January - Avg Temp 26.9 | Precip 1.59" | Snow: 5.4"
February - Avg Temp 35.3 | Precip 1.94" | Snow: 2.4"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 32.3 | Precip 11.25" | Snow: 17.4"

1989-90:
December - Avg Temp 18.7 | Precip 1.90" | Snow: 8.2"
January - Avg Temp 37.3 | Precip 1.79" | Snow: 4.1"
February - Avg Temp 37.6 | Precip 5.17" | Snow: 2.5"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 31.2 | Precip 8.86" | Snow: 14.8"

1981-82:
December - Avg Temp 27.7 | Precip 3.40" | Snow: 15.6"
January - Avg Temp 20.1 | Precip 5.64" | Snow: 21.8"
February - Avg Temp 26.4 | precip 1.62" | Snow: 13.6"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 24.7 | Precip 10.66" | Snow: 51"

1980-81:
December - Avg Temp 31.8 | Precip 0.78" | Snow: 2.1"
January - Avg Temp 23.4 | Precip 0.36" | Snow: 3.9"
February - Avg Temp 33 | Precip 2.88" | Snow: 7.2"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 29.4 | Precip 4.02" | Snow: 13.2"

1979-80:
December - Avg Temp 34.8 | Precip 2.57" | Snow: 0.2"
January - Avg Temp 28.5" | Precip 1.67" | Snow: 5"
February - Avg Temp 22.5" | Precip 1.84" | Snow: 14.5"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 28.6" | Precip 6.08" | Snow: 19.7"

1978-79:
December - Avg Temp 34.3 | Precip 4.03" | Snow: 0.7"
January - Avg Temp 17.9 | Precip 3.24" | Snow: 19.1"
February - Avg Temp 18.8 | Precip 2.86" | Snow: 18"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 23.7 | Precip 10.13" | Snow: 37.8"

1977-78:
December - Avg Temp 29.2 | Precip 4.31" | snow: 15.2"
January - Avg Temp 18.2 | Precip 3.80" | Snow: 30.6"
February - Avg Temp 17.8 | Precip 0.36" | Snow: 3.9"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 21.7 | Precip 8.47" | Snow: 49.7"

1976-77:
December - Avg Temp 24.5 | Precip 0.45" | Snow: 3.1"
January - Avg Temp 10.2 | Precip 1.50" | Snow: 20.9"
February - Avg Temp 28.1 | Precip 3.62" | Snow: 3.6"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 20.9 | Precip 5.57| | Snow: 27.6"

1969-70:
December - Avg Temp 28.1 | Precip 2.04" | Snow: 12.9"
January - Avg Temp 17.9 | Precip 1.17" | Snow: 7.8"
February - Avg Temp 28.6 | Precip 1.86" | Snow: 9.2"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 24.9 | Precip 5.07" | Snow: 29.9"

1967-68:
December - Avg Temp 33.7 | Precip 4.92" | Snow: 3.5"
January - Avg Temp 25.1 | Precip 2.96" | Snow: 17"
February - Avg Temp 26.4 | Precip 1.51" | Snow: 1.1"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 28.4 | Precip 9.39" | Snow: 21.6"

1966-67:
December - Avg Temp 32.7 | Precip 5.23" | Snow: 3.3"
January - Avg Temp 32.6 | Precip 1.81" | Snow: 2.4"
February - Avg Temp 27.7 | Precip 1.84" | Snow: 8.1"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 31 | Precip 8.88" | Snow: 12.8"

1962-63:
December - Avg Temp 25.4 | Precip 1.09" | Snow: 6.1"
January - Avg Temp 19.5 | Precip 1.15" | Snow: 9"
February - Avg Temp 21.1 | Precip 0.58" | Snow: 6.8"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 22 | Precip 2.82" | Snow 21.9"

1961-62:
December - Avg Temp 29 | Precip 3.05" | Snow: 6.2"
January - Avg Temp 23.7 | Precip 4.58" | Snow: 5.1"
February - Avg Temp 30.6 | Precip 2.27" | Snow: 14.0"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 27.8 | Precip 9.9" | Snow: 25.3"

1960-61:
December - Avg Temp 24.5 | Precip 1.88" | Snow: 6.2"
January - Avg Temp 23.6 | Precip 1.22" | Snow: 3.6"
February - Avg Temp 34 | Precip 3.15" | Snow: 14.3"
DEC - FEB - Avg Temp 27.4 | Precip 6.25" | Snow: 24.1"

1959-60:
December - Avg Temp 35.9 | Precip 2.90" | Snow: 2.8"
January - Avg Temp 31.8 | Precip 2.35" | Snow: NONE
February - Avg Temp 28.1 | precip 3.28" | Snow: 9.2"
DEC - FEB - Avg Temp 31.9 | Precip 8.53" | Snow: 12"

1958-59:
December - Avg Temp 24.2 | Precip 0.47" | Snow: 1.4"
January - Avg Temp 24.9 | Precip 4.68" | Snow: 5.2"
February - Avg Temp 31.6 | Precip 3.22" | Snow: 1"
DEC - FEB - Avg Temp 26.9 | Precip 8.37" | Snow: 7.6"

1953-54:
December - Avg Temp 32.8 | Precip 2.42" | Snow: 4.2"
January - Avg Temp 30.8 | Precip 3.40" | Snow: 5.7"
February - Avg Temp 40 | Precip 2.64" | Snow: 1.6"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 34.5| Precip 8.46" | Snow: 11.5"

1952-53:
December - Avg Temp 34.8 | Precip 3.01" | Snow: 6.9"
January - Avg Temp 32.8 | Precip 2.57" | Snow: 4.5"
February - Avg Temp 35.6 | Precip 1.93" | Snow: 0.3"
DEC-FEB - Avg Temp 34.4 | Precip 7.51" | Snow: 11.7"


What are some of the factors that go into a weather pattern?
1) PNA (Pacific North-American Pattern): A positive PNA means a ridge has set up or will set up along the Western U.S. which acts as a steering mechanism for colder and stormier weather to be driven towards the Eastern U.S.
2) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation): A negative NAO means conditions are or will be favorable for stormy weather. A blocking high will be situated North in Greenland and the Jet Stream will buckle down pulling cold air with it. The colder air can interact with low pressure systems than can be stuck for days clogging up the patterns in the Eastern half of the U.S. All this means is storms can spin up bring ABOVE NORMAL snowfall to the Eastern U.S. depending on how potent this storm systems are and how long these storms hang around.
3) AO (Arctic Oscillation): A negative AO simply means cold air. This is typically associated with a negative NAO where cold air North is pulled south.
4) JET STREAM: There are two jet streams that runs across the continent that both control which way the air and storms moves. The polar jet is responsible for cold air while the tropical jet is responsible for warm air. Typically, the southern jet will go further south in the winter keeping the warmer air further south, as the polar jet will also do the same bringing frequent arctic air intrusions to the nation. Sometimes these two jet streams can merge together producing some monster storm systems. This is what happened, most famously recognized, during the 1977-78 winter season causing blizzard-like conditions.

HERE IS MY WINTER FORECAST:

DECEMBER 2014
	AVG TEMP	PRECIP	SNOW
Avg Weak El Nino	31.4	2.96"	6.5"
Normal	31.6	3.17"	6.9"
MY F'CAST	30.9	2.82"	4.9"
JANUARY 2015
	AVG TEMP	PRECIP	SNOW
Avg Weak El Nino	25.8	3.07"	9.6"
Normal	28.1	2.66"	8.6"
MY F'CAST	23.8	3.25"	17.5"
FEBRUARY 2015
	AVG TEMP	PRECIP	SNOW
Avg Weak El Nino	29.3	2.27"	7.8"
Normal	32.1	2.32"	6.5"
MY F'CAST	27.3	2.56"	12.3"
DEC-FEB 2014-15 WINTER SUMMARY
	AVG TEMP	PRECIP	SNOW
Avg Weak El Nino	28.8	8.30"	23.9"
Normal	30.6	8.15"	22.0"
MY F'CAST	27.3	8.63"	34.7"