Looks like another great sunny day in Indianapolis. Morning Fog has burning off and temps beginning to warm up to 50° after a cool morning start with low temp of 28°. Weekend also looks great. However, there is a cold front that will pass that will drop our temps to the low 40s for the weekend.
The third southern storm system for the week is brewing and will lift North that will impact the South and Southeastern parts of the midwest. This will bring snowfall to Southern Indiana. This system has the potential to drop anywhere from an inch to a half foot of snow. This system will move to the Northeast. I do believe the system will NOT effect Indy too much but the slightest lift north by atleast 50 miles or so could bring some light snow showers or flurry activity to Indianapolis. No accumulations would be expected here.
So since I'm on the topic of snow how does it measure up in Indianapolis? Well by this time last yr we had over 33" and should avg over 20" by now but we've only recorded 9.1". Thats good for the 9th least snowiest winter, thats if winter had ended today. Need 0.6" or less, but I'm pretty hesistant to believe we'll make the top 10,I'll tell you why in a second but here's a look at the Top 10 least snowy seasons in Indianapolis (see photo)
Enough snow talk for now. Lets talk the second half of February. Temps are warming back up but its normal. During this month the avg high increases from 37 on Feb 1st to 45 on Feb 28th or 29th (leap years). While the avg low increases from 21 on Feb 1st to 28 on Feb 28th or 29th. Instead of the quick moving west to east jet streams we saw for most of December and January its has become more wavier for the Feb and looks to continue for the next 2.5 wks. When this happens this spins up storms which could fall in the form of rain, snow, or both but a storm doesn't necessarily mean its significant. Five to seven storms are showing up to finish the month and open March but none significant, atleast not in Indianapolis. Also I have outlook maps for March, April, & May (seen below). Its too soon to talk summer but I'll thrown in a preview of what it looks like. These images can be found on the NWS Climate Prediction Center Page
March 2012 Temps
March 2012 Precip
As you can see during the month of March, temps and precip are expecting to be above normal, which has been the set up for most of the season. How has precip measured up this winter? So far this (meteorological)winter season (starting Dec 1, 2011) we've received close to 9.5" of rainfall (or frozen precip) to date. We should have 8.15" by the end of this month so we are over an inch above avg thus far.
March-Apr-May 2012 Temps
March-April-May 2012 Precip
As you can see temps & precip will continue to remain above avg for the next 3 months. But a pattern change looks to be in the works for the summer. How does a cooler summer sound? Sort of a relief from last year brutal scorching heat that not just set records for numerous cities and states but as a nation in whole. Here's the summer outlooks.
May-June-July Temps
May-June-July Precip
As you can see, temps and precip are expected to be normal. Excited?? Well by August and September its suppose to get above normal again so this means sort of a late summer heat dome will be in place. Just keep in mind that these are preliminary predictions. In no means will everything play out the way it should. Weather can be full of surprises.
Alright folks, time to wrap this up but before I can do that, as promised, I wanted to give you my take on March. I think we'll open up just a little on the cool side. Keep in mind the avg high is mid 40s. I'm thinkin upper 30s, low 40s. The first part will be a little stormy. This means a few rain or snow chances. Again, none significant. After that i expect most of March to be mild with brief artic air/snow instrusions for the late beginning to mid part of the month. This should fade to Mild and T'Stormy or Rain-like for the 2nd half or towards the ending part of the month. Let's just see how all this plays out. By the way, I did pretty good in January for my prediction for this month. I plan on continuing these predictions for the entire year. Keep an eye out, because I have more weather blogs to come.
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