Wet Days Ahead

Good Afternoon! If you haven't already done so, enjoy the dry, sunny day because we have chances of rain over the next 10 days. A Canadian High Pressure brought us clear skies but a chilly morning low of 35°. Temps warming to high in upper 50s that could possibly top 60°.

As the evening progresses on, the clouds will increase and the shower chances will begin. It should hold off until after midnight. Most of Saturday will be wet, could see a few breaks in rain activity but remain cloudy. Rain totals for tomorrow could range 0.25"-0.75". Due to a weak cap that may be in place, that could stir up a few super cell storms. However, we do not expect severe storms. Expect plenty of lightning, and where these thunderstorms exist expect higher rain totals of an inch or more. The break in rain activity will mostly occur sometime between noon and 6pm. By 6pm, rain activity should pick back up and this could linger into the Sunday Daybreak hrs. This should begin to taper off between 6-9 AM West to East. Total Rain Amounts will vary around the State depending on intensity of this system. Looking at anywhere between 0.7-1.10" by Monday.

Sunday, after the rain exits the state around 9AM, the clouds should break a little and offer up some sunshine. Rest of Sunday and the first part of Monday looks dry but Monday night rain chances moves in. We are looking at rain totals of 1"-2" in Southern Indiana, 2-4", in Central Indiana, and up in Northern Indiana, they are looking at rain totals of 3" to as much as 5" over the next 7 days.

These rain chances will be locked in for much of the week and into next weekend. I see some healthy rainfall projections for next weekend w/ totals of more than 1" Monday Morning.

The total precipitation could total more than 4" to perhaps 5" for ALL of Indiana and much of Illinois.

Weekend tempertures looks to below normal but a warm up is lurking. By mid next week into next weekend temps will be running 5°-15° above normal. With an average temp of 70° to start the month of May, it appears temps will warm to upper 70s to perhaps a day in the mid 80s. With these disturbances and warmer temps we could be firing up some strong storms next week. At the moment I cannot tell you if these will be Severe or where they will hit in the Midwest and along the Ohio Valley. Thats why rain totals for next week will be high.

Currently, Indianapolis is below normal in precipitation by an inch and a quarter for the month. And a little less than an inch below normal for the year.
The temps are pretty much running normal for the month. We are running only 2° above the normal april avg temp of 53°. This could make this the 14th month above avg since Jan 2011. This means since then about 87.5% of our months have been above normal since then. About 65% (17 out of 25 days) of our daytime highs are above normal, whilst 35% (9 out of 26 days) of our daytime highs have been below normal.

As for the overnight lows, we are split 50/50. 13 days above normal lows temperaures and 13 below normal low temperatures recorded for the month.
This month we've had 6 days with highs in the 50s, 12 days in 60s, 7 days in 70s, and one day with a record high in 80s of 84° set back on April 3rd.
This month we've had 7 days with lows in 50s, 11 in 40s, 6 in 30s, and 1 day with a low in 20s of 29° recorded back on April 11th. This, so far, is our last freeze date this season. We were 1° above, recording 33° for the 12th.

We are 127° above normal this month. Last month we departed 507°. Based upon temperatures recorded this March and April and comparing to previous, we are undergoing a rare occurence. Typically temperatures are cooler in March than in April. But this year its the other way around. The last time temperatures in April were cooler than temperatures in March was back in 1907. Indiana Weather record keeping began in 1871. Since then, April 1907 and this April now have only been the two months recorded with a Warmer March followed by a Cooler April. More details HERE.

Here's my updated 10 day outlook:

Tonight-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. Low 45.

Saturday-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. High 59.
Saturday Night-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storm. Low 42.

Sunday-AM Showers/T'Storms ending early. Late AM/PM Mostly Sunny. High 62.
Sunday-Partly Cloudy. Low 45.

Monday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of Pop Up Thunderstorms. High 68.
Monday Night-Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. Low 52.

Tuesday-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. High 73.
Tuesday Night-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. Low 57

Wednesday-AM Early Showers. Late AM/ PM Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 79.
Wednesday-Partly Cloudy. Low 63

Thursday-AM Mixed Sun & Clouds. PM Showers/T'Storms., High 85.
Thursday-Showers/T'storms. Low 60

Friday-Cloudy. Scattered Showers. High 78.
Friday Night-Cloudy. Scattered Showers. Low 56.

Saturday-Showers/T'Storm. High 75.
Saturday Night-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. Low 54

Sunday-Showers/T'Storms. High 67.
Sunday Night-Showers/T'Storms. Low 49.

Monday-Showers/T'Storms. High 64.
Monday-Showers/T'Storms. Low 46.

Temperature Data
APR 2012 Avg High---66°
Average April High---63°
APR 2012 Avg Low----44°
Average April Low----43°
Avg APR 2012 Temp--55°
Average APR Temp---53°

Precipitation Data
Since APR 1---2.53"
Since MAR 1--6.67"
Since JAN 1---11.53"

Snowfall Data
Since APR 1----NONE
Since MAR 1---0.7"
Since JAN 1----7.5"
Since NOV 1---9.8"