Mid Week Weather Update

Good Evening! Welcome to May! (I'm a day late). We started and ended April on a warm note and now we are opening May on the warm side as well. In this blog, I'll go over the data from April, the averages for May, what's ahead to finish the work week, whats in store for the weekend, give my thoughts for the month, and discuss where we stand in the season as we begin the last month of meteorological spring.

April 2012
During this month we recorded a record high of 84° set on April 3rd smashing a 66 year old record of 83° set back in 1946. Immediately after, we cooled down mid week recording highs in the 50s and 60s for 11 consecutive days for the period beginning April 4th and ending April 14. During this time period our overnight low averaged a temperature of 41°. We recorded our last freeze so far for the season on April 11th when the thermometer dipped to 29°. Then we warmed up for 6 days recording 60s and 70s beginning on April 15th and ending on April 20th. Then for April 21-24 we recorded a few below normal days in the mid to upper 50s and low 60s for the 24th. Not one but two 70 degree days were recorded for the 25th and 26th. Then another 3 cool below normal days recorded for 27th-29th before finishing on the 30th above normal 1 degree shy of 80.
The top 5 coldest mornings were April 10th (35°), 11th (29°), 12th (33°), 23th (35°), and 27th (35°). We finished the month with an average low temperature of 44°. Thats 1° above the normal avg low of 43°. 47% (14 of 30) of our overnight lows were above normal. 53% (16 of 30) of our overnight lows were below normal.
The top 5 warmest days were April 1st (76°), 3rd (84°), 15th (78°), 19th (75°), and 30th (79°). We finished the month with an average high temperature of 65°. Thats 2° above the normal average high of 63°. 60% (18 of 30) of our daytime highs were above normal and 40% (12 of 30) of our daytime highs were below normal. 
The average temperature for April is normally 53°. We finished with 54°, 1° above normal. This makes this the 14th of the past 16 months above normal. Also, in March the average temperature was 57°. This means we finished cooler in April and warmer in March, a very rare occurence. Record keeping began in 1871 but records are not available for April 1871. Starting April 1872, 140 years ago, 35 yrs had passed before we reached a year where an average temperature in March was warmer than April. This occured in 1907. Count another 105 yrs and reach 2012. This is the 2nd time on record April finishes cooler than March. Currently the average temperature should be 42 for March and 53 for April. The majority of March was spent with record setting highs in 70s and 80s in the Central and Eastern U.S. A large area of high pressure dominated the weather east of the Rocky Mountains which provided warm, southerly winds to push far North into Canada. This making the jet stream to position itself along the U.S/Canada border blocking any pools of cold air to enter into Pacific and Upper Midwest. This is what caused the dome of hot air to remain in the Central and Eastern U.S. for 2 weeks before a upper level low pushed East and brung in cooler air. For Indy, we closed March on the 30th below normal.
The precipitation amount for April was semi decent, but not as much as the nearly 4.5" we received in March. Our total precipitation for the month was 3.36". This amount was 0.45" below the normal 3.81" for April. So far this year we have picked up 12.36" since January 1st and 7.5" for the Spring Season. Currently, we are 0.01" above normal precipitation for the year, and 0.13" above normal precipitation for the season.
**Precip data is for the period January 1st-April 30th, 2012. Updated Precip totals later in this blog below

May Temperature/Precipitation/Snowfall Averages
During the month of May, the average high temperature increases from 68&;#176; on May 1st to 77° on May 31st. The warmest (record high temperature) day for this month fell on May 31, 1895 recording 96°.
The average low temperature increases from 48° on May 1st to 57° on May 31st. The coldest (record low temperature) day for this month fell on May 10, 1966 recording 28°.
Combining the average high temperature and average low temperature, the average temperature for the month comes out to be 63°.
The average precipitation for the month of May is 5.05". On average, this is supposedly the wettest month of the year.
Rare but not unlikely, we average a trace of snowfall during this month. The last occurence was 10 yrs ago in 2002.
The sunrise time on May 1st is 6:45 AM. The Sunset Time is 8:38 PM. Length of Day is 14 HRS 53 MINS.
The sunrise time on May 31st is 6:19 AM. The sunset time is 9:06PM. Length of Day is 15 HRS 37 MINS.
The Daylight Hours increase 44 mins during this month.

SAT-TUES
Temperatures began to build Sunday and Monday in 60s and 70s after we recorded high in the 50s for Friday and Saturday this past weekend. We had one off our coolest high temperatures on Saturday of 52° since March 9th when we only reached 45°. Saturday went down as the coolest day for April 2012 (in terms of daytime temperatures). We also picked up 0.33" of rain that day. This began a period of wet weather. Trace amounts picked up for Sunday, 0.5" for Monday, and 1.48" Tuesday. Over the past 7 days we have picked up 2.31" in the rain buckets. Strong Thunderstorms hit Indiana Tuesday which did result in ONE confirmed EF-1 tornado touchdown southeast of Crawfordsville near New Ross. This produced winds around 100 MPH hittting the ground at 7:36 PM traveling a half mile destroying homes, barns, trees, and power poles lasting approxiametely a minute. Three other reported tornadoes are currently being investigated. Will update when confirmed. During the hours of 7pm-8pm in Indianapolis, 0.71" of the total 1.48" that fell Tuesday eveing occured during this time. Storms continued to push Northeast exiting much of the state before midnight.

WEDS-FRI
The Jet Stream is flying North which will result in summerlike warmth engulfing pretty much the entire nation. Weather Channel Temperature Map below showed a large quantity of readings in the 80s and a few 90s eary Wednesday Evening shortly before 6pm. Dozens of cities looking to tie or break record high temperatures this week. In Indianapolis, the record temperature could either be tied or broken for Thursday Afternoon. The record high for this day is 86° set back 1959, 53 yrs ago.

As the summer heat continues to prevail for Thursday, weather conditions will remain dry and sunny but muggy. I think we may squeeze out a few peaks of sunshine early Friday Morning but clouds will be on the increase and showers/storm chances will begin to move in for Friday Afternoon. With the extra heat, this can add extra fuel to the fire. If any storms would get going than the heat may have added to an increased risk for severe storms for the weekend. Keep this in mind if you have made travel or outdoor activity plans. Fridays Highs should also record readings in 80s in Central Indiana.

Weekend
Storm Chances continue to remain in play for the weekend as well with highs in the low 80s. Some places in the state could only reach upper 70s for Sunday as the heat begins to slooooowly retreat. The entire weekend will not be a complete washout. Total precip amounts may add around half inch for Fri-Sun.

What's Ahead
Monday looks to end our rain chances as much of next week will dry out. Temperatures will slooooowly climb backwards as the week progresses. Lows 80s for Sunday. Upper 70s for Monday. Mid 70s for Tuesday. Low 70s for Wednesday and by Thursday we could be back into the upper 60s below normal. Some places may see 60s on Wednesday as well. We are in store for some cooler days ahead. I think we'll have a toss up of above normal days in the 70s and below normal days in the 60s. We'll probably finish the month below normal despite the above normal start to the month. I think we'll also be near normal in precipitation if not above (which is 5"). Below are graphics from NOAA displaying the Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for the Month. They are calling for an equal chance for above normal, below normal, and normal temperatures and precipitation.

As we head into the last month of Spring, I'd like to briefly go over NOAA outlook maps for the summer. Its already felt as if its been here for the past few months. A lot of people were wondering that a warm, above normal Spring would bring us a much warmer, above normal summer. This is not the case. Observations from one season does not have any correlation to the next.
According to the graphics below, temperatures and also precipitation are expected to be the same as May above for May-June-July.

I will say once we add August to the picture, temperatures for June-July-August will become just slightly above normal but I do not expect a scorching hot summer like last year. The effects of La Nina weather patttern is dissipating and El Nino weather pattern is beginning to shape up. This most likely means  temperatures will remain mostly normal for the next few months if not cooler. Winter 2011-2012 had us  fooled so lets try to take one month at a time. I cannot stress this enough, these are merely predictions.  Thats what weather is all about. It doesn't  matter if your fresh out of college or an expert meteorologist thats been in the weather business for 30 odd years. You cannot  accurately forecast months in advance but some do hold out to be true.  I give my opinions, do the observations and research, correct myself whereas needed, and take the weather from there. I steadily update on a consistent basis to provide the most accurate and reliable forecast essential to you. Bear with me, we'll finish Spring and  begin Summer soon. 

Temperature Data
Today's High------84
Today's Low-------63
May 1 High--------70
May 1 Low---------55
MAY 2012 AVG---68

Precipitation Data
Since MAY 1------1.48"
Since MAR 1------8.98"
Since JAN 1--------13.84"

Snowfall Data
Since MAY 1-----NONE
Since MAR 1-----0.7"
Since JAN 1------7.5"