If you can remember back in earlier blog in March, I stated that the summer months might trend cooler than last year. Even though we finished March 15° above normal this was not an indication of what was to come this summer. However, we are only in the first month of meteorological summer and astronomical summer doesn't begin until June 20th. The weather pattern could take a 180° turn. Scorching hot temps and below normal precipitation could very well make up our July Forecast but right now I can't promise that. In fact, this time around, I'm not making any definitive predications for the next month at this time. Since January, I have made predictions for the next month about mid way through the current month. Really, the spring and summer months are pretty hard to predict but I can tell you two things. It will be warm and it will be sunny.
Of course, July is the hottest month of year averaging a high of 85° and a low of nearly 66° with an avg temp of 75°. But how do I know that July will be sunny? On average, we record 20 days out of 31 days of the month with either clear & sunny or partly sunny sky conditions. This makes about 65% of the months days sunny while the other 35% of the days to be cloudy or wet, averaging nearly 4.60" of rainfall. Granted, predictions can't entirely be based upon statistics, I thought I would atleast share these facts with you for fun.
Back to the present day, high temps reached the mid 80s at 6pm. High pressure continues to push East and our forecast will continue to feature clear and sunny skies for the next few days. Temperatures will be on the increase as our winds will shift to a more southwesterly air flow and humidity will slowly creep back up to uncomfortable levels. Back to the 90s we go!
So far this year we have recorded 4 days in the 90s and we'll probably double that to 8 more before the months out. We are looking at daily chances of rain next week but I got to tell you some of these chances are pretty low and actually some areas in the state may go almost the entire week again without recording a single raindrop. Lets hope that doesn't happen but lastest computer runs are continuing to support that theory. Between 0.10"-0.25" for the next 7 days and maybe half an inch to finish the month. Pretty pathetic numbers, I'm really hoping that mother nature can surprise us with a pretty heavy downpour because we need it.
As dry conditions continues to persist in Indiana this adds to an increased risk for wildfires. A combination of low relative humidity levels, dry vegetation, warm temperatures, and moderate winds stirs up the perfect recipe for these to produce. If we neglect to dispose of cigarette buds properly, and burn leaves or trash, this consequently can get a fire going and these can spread pretty fast. Right now, I think of the grass or fields as a bunch of pieces of paper doused with lighter fluid. You light that with a match and your asking for trouble. Even the smallest little spark is enough to do the damage. Also, 4th of July is coming up and lighting fireworks and firing up the grill can also be a pretty good hazard as well. Hey, these wildfires can get out of control so I cannot stress this enough, please be careful this summer!
Here's a look at the recent drought map for Indiana released Today.
You now notice more counties have been added and much of the state is abnormally dry. Indianapolis is nearly 2" below normal in precipitation for the month and again over 4" for the year. Bloomington, IN is now more than 10" below normal this year, Terre Haute's deficit is surpassing 9".
Indianapolis is heading into the top ten driest June. That's as along as we finish with less than 1.45" which looks to be the case since we are headed into a heat wave that could leave us with many more dry days ahead. With 16 days left in the month, its going to be a challenge for June 2012 to finish as the driest June on record. The record is 0.36" set back in 1988. We have 0.05" so its still possible. The 2nd driest June is 0.91" so if we don't make it at #1 we can easily beat the #2 spot. The record of all time driest month is March 1910 with 0.07", we're challenging that record as well. The longest stretch of (consecutive) dry days on record is 39 which began on August 14, 1908 and ended on September 22, 1908. This occured nearly 104 years ago.
10 Day Detailed Outlook
Tonight-Clear & Comfortable. Low Humidity. Low 60.
Friday-Sunny & Warmer. Knozone Action Day. High 88.
Friday PM-Clear Skies. Low 66.
Saturday-Hot, Sunny, & Humid. High 92.
Saturday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 69.
Sunday-Partly Cloudy. Some Sunshine. High 86.
Sunday PM-Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers/T'Storms. Low 69.
Monday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of Showers/T'Storms. High 89.
Monday PM-Partly to Mostly Clear. Low 69.
Tuesday-Partly Sunny. Hot & Humid. High 93.
Tuesday PM-Mostly Clear. Low 71.
Wednesday-Partly Sunny. Hot & Humid. High 91.
Wednesday-Partly Cloudy. Low 70.
Thursday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of Showers/T'Storms. High 88.
Thursday PM-Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers/T'Storms. Low 68.
Friday-More Clouds than Sun. Chance of Showers/T'Storms. High 85.
Friday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 67.
Saturday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 86.
Saturday-Partly Cloudy. Low 66.
Sunday-Mostly Sunny. High 83.
Sunday PM-Clear & Cooler. Low 62.
June 2012 Temperature Data
Actual Avg High----79.5°. This is 2.5° below the normal monthly avg high of 82° for June.
Actual Avg Low-----57.2°. This is 4.8° below the normal monthly avg low of 62° for June.
Actual Avg Temp---68.3°. This is 3.7° below the normal monthly avg temp of 72° for June.
Precipitation Data
Precip Since JUN 1---0.05". This is 4.20" below the normal 4.25" for June.
Precip Since MAR 1---10.25". This is 3.93" below the normal 14.18" for Mar 1-Jun 13.
Precip Since JAN 1----15.11". This is 4.14" below the normal 19.25" for Jan 1-Jun 13.
Snowfall Data
Snowfall Since JUN 1-----NONE
Snowfall Since MAR 1-----0.7"
Snowfall Since JAN 1------7.5"
Snowfall Since NOV 1-----9.8"
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