Warming Trend Ahead

Good Evening! A Wonderful and pleasant Wednesday coming to a close. I hope you have been enjoying the comfortable cool weather. High pressure takes the wheel for the next few days as the Omega blocking pattern continues to move East. Some weather changes are in store over the next week to two weeks. The first change comes in on Thursday when temperatures begin to creep back above the seasonal 80° mark, going above normal. Much of the past 9 days starting with the day after Memorial Day, have been below 80° running as much as 12° below normal (this on May 1st). Thursday is where we begin to get underneath the hot section of the blocking pattern. The 2nd change is the rise in humidity over the weekend which could occur as early as late Saturday afternoon. This will make way for an uncomfortable Sunday outdoors. As the blocking pattern begins to break up we'll begin to add chances of rain in the forecast after this upcoming above normal hot & sunny weekend. But I gotta tell you I don't see any complete washouts for next week. A cold front will come through Monday bringing in some much needed rain in the evening which looks to continue on Tuesday but then dry out for the week. I will however consider, possibly a pop up shower for Wednesday as well. Our temps are expected to drop from near 90s Saturday & Sunday to possibly upper 70s and low 80s for the next work week. These are just a few changes to come. Beyond the 7 day outlook we'll start with seasonal & near seasonal temps but I think once again another warmup is in store. We simply cannot get locked into a wet weather pattern and the next 6-10 days looks pretty dry. GFS models spitting out less than 1.5" over the next 2 weeks. I will monitor this and continue to update.
Speaking of lack of rain, that is one thing really standing out with Indiana's weather. Bloomington now more than 9 inches below normal for the year. Terre Haute more than 7 inches. Here in Indianapolis, rainfall deficit has now topped 3 inches below normal.
I've complied a list of Indys rainfall totals for the past 5 June months and a list of Indy's last 5 least wettest months over the past 2 years.

Last 5 Most Driest Months
1. August 2010-0.37"
2. July 2011-0.47"
3. September 2010-0.56"
4. August 2011-1.11"
5. October 2010-1.32"
*We recorded 1.38" of precip in Feb. 2012 this year, our least wettest month this year so far.

Past 5 June Precip Totals
June 2011-5.76"
June 2010-9.73"
June 2009-6.60"
June 2008-8.00"
June 2007-2.22"

Hopefully, we'll begin to pickup some rainy days sometime soon. I haven't done too much research on the most rainest days but some have occurred within the past year. We picked up 3.06" back on April 19, 2011 and 2.10" back on September 25, 2011. Of course, it helps when rain is spread amongst several days rather then picking up a months total in one day. Last month, we picked up 1.48" on May 1st which made up nearly 55% of the months total (which was 2.70"). We recorded 22 dry days and 2 days recorded with trace amounts of precip so that leaves the remaining 1.22" of the months precip total to be spread amongst the other 6 days. Thats calculates out to a daily avg between 0.20" & 0.21" for those 6 days. Just cross your fingers and hope for rain relief, until then, you'll proably be on your own to water the lawn for atleast the next 7 days. May make an exception for Monday and Tuesday though, see where this rain takes us.

Here's a look back at the temp observations for the past 10 Days


**Todays Official High was 77 not 76**


10 Day Detailed Outlook

Tonight-Partly to Mostly Clear Skies. Low 55.

Thursday-Sunny & Seasonal. High 81.
Thursday PM-Clear. Low 58.

Friday-Sunny & Warmer. High 84.
Friday PM-Clear. Low 63.

Saturday-Sunny. Hot & Humid. High 88.
Saturday PM-Mostly Clear. Low 67.

Sunday-Sunny. Warmer. High 89.
Sunday PM-Clear. Low 68.

Monday-AM Sunshine w/ Increasing Clouds. High 85.
Monday PM-Chance of Showers/T'Storms Beginning Late Afternoon. Low 66.

Tuesday-Partly Cloudy. Chance of Showers/T'Storms. Not as Warm. High 79.
Tuesday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 64.

Wednesday-More Clouds than Sun. High 78.
Wednesday-Partly Cloudy. A Bit Cooler. Low 60.

Thursday-Partly Sunny & Seasonal. High 82.
Thursday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 62.

Friday-Sunny. A Bit Warmer. High 85.
Friday PM-Clear Skies. Low 64.

Saturday-Sunny& Warm. High 86.
Saturday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 64.

June 2012 Temperature Data
Actual Avg High----72.8°. This is 9.2° below the normal monthly avg high of 82° for June.
Actual Avg Low-----53.4°. This is 8.6° below the normal monthly avg low of 62° for June.
Actual Avg Temp---63.1°. This is 8.9° below the normal monthly avg temp of 72° for June.

Precipitation Data
Precip Since JUN 1---0.05". This is 4.20" below the normal 4.25" for June.
Precp Since MAR 1---10.25". This is 2.89" below the normal 13.14" for Mar 1-Jun 5.
Precip Since JAN 1----15.11". This is 3.11" below the normal 18.21" for Jan 1-Jun 5.

Snowfall Data
Snowfall Since JUN 1-----NONE
Snowfall Since MAR 1-----0.7"
Snowfall Since JAN 1------7.5"
Snowfall Since NOV 1-----9.8"