Thursday, February 27, 2014

Cold End to February, Winter Storm Coming

Brace yourself! The relentless cold and snowy days are not letting up for the next 2 weeks. I've counted 47 times the high temp has failed to reach the freeze mark. Of those 47 times, 3 times were single digit highs. As for lows, we dropped below 10°, 29 times. Of those 29 times, we went sub zero 12 times. The average temp so far during this season is 24.1°. This about 6.5° below normal. It appears that we may end this winter as the 8th coldest winter on record (current ranking). Friday is the last day of meteorological winter. We had the 2nd most snowiest January on record and 9th snowiest February on record. We didn't just break the all time most snowiest winter record of 51". We shattered it (by over an inch)! This season's total snowfall record (Dec 1st-current) is now up to 52.2". This is 26.3" above the normal's season's amount of 25.9". That's a tad bit more than double the amount we should normally see.
For a snow year, we are currently ranked at #3 snowiest with 52.3". For this to be the most snowiest year, we still need another 6" of snow and we have an opportunity to top that list. More info on that later in the blog. Currently the most snowiest year is 1981-82 with 58.2" followed by 1977-78 with 57.9". Any snow we see in March will NOT be added towards the winter season snow total but will be added to the snow year snow total which doesn't end until June 30th. Snowfall records date back to 1884.

For your reference, I've compiled a list of links to winter weather write ups from the US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA below. You may click each link to be redirected to these write ups for more information.

12/08/2013   December 5-6 Snow Event Review
12/12/2013   Coldest Weather in Nearly 3 years
01/04/2014   December 2013 Climate Summary
01/06/2014   Snow amounts as of 7am January 6th
01/07/2014   Updated-Frigid Weather for Early January
01/10/2014   Review of January 5 Snow and Subsequent Cold
01/19/2014   January 18, 2014 Snowfall
01/22/2014   January 21 Snowfall and Winds
02/03/2014   January 2014 Climate Summary - Plenty of Snow and Cold
02/07/2014   February 4-5 Snow Event Review
02/07/2014   The Coldest January in more than 30 years at Indianapolis.
02/13/2014   First Time in 30 Years (Coldest Winter Season)
02/16/2014   February 14 2014 Snow Review
02/26/2014   Indianapolis Winter Snow Statistics (through 2/25)



Last weeks mild warm up came and gone. It was a nice little spring teaser with average temps ranging 3° to as much as 14° above normal from the 18th-22nd. Temperatures peaked on the 20th with a high of 62 associated with spring-like thunderstorm system. Additionally, a peak wind gust of 58 mph was recorded at Indianapolis International Airport. Highest wind gust reported for the station's weather recording site since the November 17th tornado outbreak (67 mph). It exceeded the 52 mph wind gust recorded on January 26th & 27th. The storm did spawn up 2 confirmed tornadoes in the state. One EF0 tornado in Rush county and an EF1 in Ripley county.
The weather has defaulted back to a Northwest flow pattern that has been dominate this winter season. We continue to count the days below freezing. We had an astonishing run earlier in the month of 278 consecutive hours below freezing (11.5 days). Longest streak in 4 years (early Jan 2010). As we've been getting deeper into this week, the temperatures have trended cooler than the warmer temperatures we saw over the past week and weekend. Check out my table on high and low temperatures over the past 7 days and how it differs from normal.

HIGH
TEMP
OBSERVED
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
LOW
TEMP
OBSERVED
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
AVERAGE
TEMP
OBSERVED
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
FEB 20 62 +20 34 +9 48 +14
FEB 21 42 -0 32 +7 47 +3
FEB 22 55 +12 30 +4 43 +9
FEB 23 36 -7 21 -5 29 -5
FEB 24 31 -12 18 -8 25 -10
FEB 25 26 -18 16 -11 21 -14
FEB 26 20 -24 4 -23 12 -24


Winds were up on Thursday preserving the winter chill but despite the bitter cold, many are enjoying what sunshine we have been getting. On Thursday, we saw winds 15-25 mph with wind gusts 30-40 mph which drove "feels-like" temps down sub zero. As the skies clear Thursday night, temperatures may drop down near zero. The record low is 2° set back in 1993. Some sunshine in the morning will give way to clouds in the afternoon and evening hours. A disturbance will come through the state late Friday night into early Saturday morning offering some measurable snow. It won't be a whole lot but an inch or two is possible in some locations. Just enough to coat the ground. All it takes is just a little bit to mess up the roads. Drive with caution. Temperatures will slowly be on the rise, potentially climbing above freezing on Saturday. In fact, some models are hinting at 40s on Saturday. It won't last long though as the next winter storm comes plowing through. Some of the latest modeling data is suggesting a wintry mix changes to all snow. Heavy snow will fall from Central Indiana pointing North while a wintry mix (rain, freezing, sleet) and snow will be possible for those south of I-70 and down in Southern Indiana. Its still a day or two too early to talk exact numbers but from what modeling data is showing a half foot to a foot of snow may be possible for anybody within the Central and Northern Indiana zone. Less than 5" of snow will be possible south but some ice accumulations could be a concern in some locations south of I-70. Along with the actual storm track, there may be a short kink in timing of this storm to work out but it appears like it will move in on Sunday and end early on Monday. This will not only impact roads but possibly cause school delays and closures. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED ON SUNDAY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN. EXPECT DELAYS IF YOUR TRAVELING THE ROADS ON SUNDAY AND EVEN ON MONDAY.
If this winter storm verifies there is a a few snowfall record that warrants attention. A daily snowfall record of 2" set March 2, 1943 is likely to be broken on Sunday. Also, we need to keep an eye on the daily snowfall record Monday of 3.4" set in 1912. Also, the snow depth record on Monday is 7" set back in 1960, could potentially be tied or broken. Depending on the timing of this system and cold air trailing behind it, we may also need to keep an eye on the snow depth record for Tuesday as well which is also 7" set in 1960.
After this winter storm plows through to kick off the first week of March, another arctic push of air will blow through potential driving temperatures down below zero on Tuesday morning. Afternoon temps may have a tough time getting out of the teens on Tuesday, March 4th. This cold blast may challenge record temperatures. Here's a list of records for the coldest low and coldest high temperatures for the 1st 7 days of March.

MAR 1 MAR 2 MAR 3 MAR 4 MAR 5 MAR 6 MAR 7
COLDEST
LOW
TEMP
-4
(1960)
-7
(1980)
-5
(1943)
2
(1873)
-1
(1978)
-6
(1960)
-1
(1943)
COLDEST
HIGH
TEMPS
17
(1980)
14
(1925)
13
(1943)
13
(1960)
18
(1960)
15
(1932)
15
(1943)


Here's some quick info on climate average and other info for March:
The high temperature increases from 45° on the 1st to 58° on the 31st
The low temperature increases from 28° on the 1st to 38° on the 31st
The average temperature increases from 37° on the 1st to 48° on the 31st
The coldest March on record is 26.2° set in 1960. The warmest March on record is 56.6° set in 2012.
March is the fastest warming month of the year as the angle of the sun gets higher.
The sun rises at 7:18am on the 1st. Due to the time change on March 9th, the sun actually rises a tad bit later by the 31st at 7:30am.
The sun sets at 6:37pm on the 1st. Due to the time change on March 9th, the sun sets later by the 31st at 8:08pm.
Overall, March gains 1 hr and 19 mins of daylight. One of the highest gains of the year.
The average precipitation amount is 3.56". The wettest March on record is in 1904 with 10.95". The driest is in 1910 with 0.07".
The average snowfall amount is 2.6". The most snowiest March on record is in 1906 with 30.4". Many years saw at the very least a trace a snow.
The average date for our 1st 70 is on March 17th. Only 6 times over the past 31 years and 2 times over the past 11 years, has a March not seen a 70° day in March. Here's my table of 1st 70, 80, and 90° of the year recorded since 2000. NOTE: In 2004, the temperature did not go above 89°.

YEAR FIRST
70°
DATE
70°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
80°
DATE
80°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
90°
DATE
90°
TEMP
RECORDED
2013 APRIL 06 71° APRIL 09 81° JULY 16th 96°
2012 MARCH 12 71° MARCH 14 81° MAY 26 90°
2011 MARCH 17 74° APRIL 10 83° MAY 30 90°
2010 MARCH 10 72° APRIL 1 82° JUNE 11 90°
2009 MARCH 06 70° APRIL 24 84° JUNE 19 91°
2008 APRIL 07 71° APRIL 23 82° JUNE 08 90°
2007 MARCH 14 77° MARCH 13 80° JUNE 07 90°
2006 MARCH 12 70° APRIL 13 82° JULY 02 90°
2005 MARCH 30 77° APRIL 10 80° JUNE 05 90°
2004 MARCH 24 70° APRIL 17 82° N/A N/A
2003 MARCH 16 74° APRIL 15 81° JULY 03 90°


What can we expect for the month of March? The 1st half of the month certainly appears to be below normal where temperatures are concerned. With upcoming storm, snowfall is likely to finish above normal while there is an equal chance for above, below, or normal precipitation. Here's the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).


***10 DAY OUTLOOK***


    MARK YOUR CALENDAR! DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGIN SUNDAY, MARCH 9th. SPRING CLOCKS FORWARD 1 HR AT 2AM

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