We are coming up on the end of our 10th month of the year and so far October has been a mix of cold and warmth and clouds and sun. The bigger story this month is our snapped dry streak. We had a record astonishing run, where on any given day, less than 0.10" of precipitation fell, spanning 57 days from August 19 to October 14. This dry run has never lasted this long before. Well more than the 47 day dry run we had June 1, 2012-July 17, 2012. Despite the dry start to the month we have more than made up for the deficit. We have received more than 4" of rain this month mostly within a 10 day period. A final note worth mentioning so far this month, our first fall freeze occurred on October 16, which ended a 159 day stretch with temps 33+. This is actually one of our shorter spans of freeze free runs since 1997. Last year we went 212 days freeze free which was ranked as the 3rd longest stretch since 1943.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN IS COMING?
Well we had another round of rain yesterday evening, that puts our month's total at 4.18". The year's total is now up to 38.47" which is nearly 3.5" above normal but it is still nearly 1.5" below normal for the season. We are also a little behind last year's pace by 2". With the exception of light drizzle Tuesday morning, we are not expecting any additional rain to accumulate for today and most of tomorrow but remnants from Tropical Storm Zeta looks to arrive late Wednesday night persisting into Thursday. This has the potential to bring us another 1" or two to add on to what has been a wet period of weather over the past two weeks.
Temperatures over the past 84 hours have been suppressed due to the thick cloud cover, partially a byproduct of all the rain we have received in very little time. This moist boundary layer will slightly dry up as high pressure builds into the area this evening. Some breakage in the clouds will not only allow for even cooler air Wednesday morning but may finally offer up some sunshine for a brief period of time as well. With a brief break in the pattern and a shift in winds to a southerly flow Wednesday afternoon, we should see some warmer air advecting in causing the thermometer to rise towards the lower 60s in some spots. As Gulf moisture returns, clouds will thicken back up late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
WATCHING THE SOUTH! TROPICAL ACTIVITY HEADING NORTH!
Zeta crashed against the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday as a Category 1 Hurricane with sustained winds at 80 mph. It has since weakened a tad to Tropical Storm status but will later re-strengthen as it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today. Zeta will make landfall on the northern Gulf coast late Wednesday and track northeast into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. As previously mentioned, this will bring a plume of moisture across our region. This storm will interact with a secondary wave and the phasing will set up a period of widespread heavy rainfall across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley impacting a large portion of Indiana. We could see upwards to 2" of rain across Central Indiana with the heaviest focused along and south of I-70. Less than 1" for areas farther North of the metro area. Southern Indiana may receive the brunt of this disturbance bringing some pockets of 3"-4" of rain. Localized flooding is possible so be aware and use caution when traveling. Do NOT drive through flooded areas.
RAIN ENDS IN TIME FOR THE TRICK OR TREATERS!
With the combination of rain, clouds, cool temps, and brisk E/NE winds this will make for a very miserable Thursday. Don't fret! Conditions will begin to rapidly improve though as drier air begins to move in Thursday night into Friday as another area of high pressure tracks East. Clouds will also scatter but colder air will arrive to end the month. Frost and freeze risks are likely for Halloween morning (Saturday) but temperatures will quickly rebound towards the middle 50s under plenty of sunshine. There is another cold front that will pass on Sunday but I'm unsure at this time if this will be a dry front or bring us a weak shower chance. In wake of the frontal passage, temps will once again dip near freezing for Monday morning. Much warmer air will begin to move in for Days 8-14 (November 3-9) along with predominantly drier pattern.
One last final note, DST ends on Saturday night so clocks will roll back an hour. Due to the time change, this will make sunrise an hour earlier on Sunday but, in turn, sunset will also be an hour earlier.
Here is my latest extended forecast for October 27-November 3.
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