Dry Now But Cold and Snowy Later

High Pressure is moving in and this will allow this stubborn cloud deck to dissipate. Expect plenty of sunshine for Saturday and early Sunday. With the loss of our blanket, morning low temperatures will return towards the freezing threshold. High temperatures will continue to be near or above normal in the upper 40s, lower 50s.

A surge of moisture will likely bring some rain into the forecast area for Sunday night.

This approaching low pressure system emerging from the South will interact with colder air filtering in from the Canada. This will not only allow for temperatures to be at it's coldest levels since February but also bring in our season's 1st accumulating snow event as well. While there is still more details to be worked out this storm system, there is no doubt that this will be enough to keep everyone on high alert across the region. It usually takes drivers on the road a little extra time to get acclimated to this type of weather during the first snow event so be sure to use extra caution on the roads. The idea, for now, is rain will fall first and begin it's transition into snow as temperatures fall. Early estimates at accumulations could range between 1"-3" across Central Indiana but I would imagine those numbers could come down with intial melting or even increase if the heavy band pivots into Central Indiana. Right now it favors a little bit more of an Eastern approach putting Ohio in the brunt of the storm. Because winter weather systems are so complex, it makes forecasting incredibly difficult. The question in matter of this storm system would be how the storm will track, how quickly will the cold temperatures and precipition phase with each and how fast the storm system moves. Location and timing is very important and will require monitoring in the days and hours ahead.

This storm system is expected to move out of the state allowing for drier conditions mid-week. Due to a shift in model guidance the last few runs and potentially drier air, I have raised forecast temperatures above what is considered normal for this time of the year but there are questions as to how much an approaching disturbance will impact temperatures. With the uncertainity of temperatures and precipitation type from the next system, I did go with a little bit of a cautioned approach by adding in a chance of either rain or snow and keeping each day's temperature spread relatively low. This will require updating in the day's ahead. Quick reminder, as winter approaches arctic intrusions will become more prevalent over the next few months and with it comes opportunities for snow and ice. Also, the average low temperatures is now below the 32° threshold and remains there until the middle of March.

My extended weather outlook for Saturday, November 28 to Sunday, December 6