As you all may know, 90% of December was above normal and after the New Year hit, we've undergone a long overdue pattern shift. This has resulted in a pullback in temperatures with readings below normal the past few days. It's rather remarkable, we've only dropped below 20° once this season. Something that hasn't been achieved this far into the winter season since 1932. We've also only seen a high below 32° twice this season (Dec 7 and Jan 4) so far. Statistically, January is the coldest month of the year and on average we see 11 days with highs below 32° and 25 days with lows below 32°. Some may also wonder if any month of the year has seen all it's day's below 32°. It's only happened one time over the past 150 years and that was in January 1977.
As far as snow is concerned, it is lacking pretty badly. We saw 0.5" in November and only trace amounts in December along with trace amounts so far this January to date. Ranks as the 4th least snowiest season's to date and least snowiest in nearly 40 years. Season is running 8" below normal but we will have plenty of time to make up those numbers in the months ahead. No snow year has seen less than 5.5" in Indianapolis and measurable snow has been recorded as late as the end of May. Snowfall records date back 138 years to 1884.
TODAY'S WEATHER
We saw a morning low of 21° which makes for the 6th coldest morning of the season. This is actually pretty close to where we should be for this time of the year though just 1° below normal. Temperatures saw a bit of a boost today thanks in part to both morning sunshine and a shift in winds to the South. We climbed 20° to a (preliminary) high of 41° which was 5° above normal. The 35° temperature reading at nearly 1:00 PM put an end to a 52 consecutive hour streak below freezing.
TONIGHT
Winds will continue to be breezy but radiational cooling will not occur overnight with a blanketed cloud cover overhead. Temperatures are likely to remain above or at freezing through sunrise tomorrow. Readings will be between 32°-39°.
WEDNESDAY
After starting in the 30s, a frontal passage will drop temperatures in the 20s for the afternoon and evening. Clouds will likely continue to remain in place but despite the gloomy skies, no precipitation is expected to occur. Wind chill temps will likely be in the teens for the afternoon and evening. .
THURSDAY
In wake of the the frontal passage on Wednesday, temperatures will start in the teens and with clouds continuing to hang overhead, very little warming will occur throughout the day. Expect a high in the lower 20s. A passing disturbance will bring snow showers across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. At this distance it appears, Indianapolis may be too far North out of the path as it traverses the region. Should this system track a little farther North, we could get some snow out of this but it would likely be on the light side considering Indianapolis would be on the very Northern edge of this system. Some refinement to the forecast will be necessary over the next 36 hours as it develops. For now, the best timing for snow in the state will be sometime from 6:00 AM to 9:00 PM. Again, due to the complexity of this snow storm, there is some uncertainties with accumulation at this time. As a result, putting out a projected snow total forecast from this system would be premature until tomorrow.
FRIDAY
The core of the polar blast will bring temperature readings at it's coldest so far this season. We are expected to be in the single digits in the morning with sub zero wind chills. Something that hasn't occured for 320 days (Feb 19: High 22 Low 7). Diminishing cloud cover may allow a few peaks of sunshine to greet us when sunrise occurs at 8:06 AM. Though Friday may be brighter, this will not aid temperatures in recovering quickly. We may still only see a high in the upper teens or lower 20s which is nearly 15° below normal.
SATURDAY to SUNDAY
The cold air mass from the past 64 hours will finally begin to ease up and thanks to a wind shift, temperatures are unlikely to drop much Friday night into Saturday morning. Conditions will be rather calm so this should allow significant warming to occur. We'll go from a morning low in the upper teens to a high in the lower 40s. Clouds will refill the sky again as we go into afternoon and evening hours. This will keep temperatures up for Sunday morning. The added gulf moisture in the atmosphere will cause an increased chance for precipitation late Saturday into Sunday. This may push out ahead of a cold front so rain will be the primary threat with the chance of mixing to occur late in the day Sunday as temperatures begin to fall.
NEXT WEEK
The week starts out dry but cold with morning lows in the teens and highs in the 20s. Sunshine looks probable for both days. At this distance, it appears temperatures will slightly warm to seasonal levels for the remainder of the week. Modeling data is hinting at more wintry precipitation for Wednesday and Thursday that will require monitoring in the days ahead.
MOON CYCLE
New Year, New Moon? Fittingly we just crossed past the new moon phase on Monday that will reach peak illumination on Monday, January 17, at 6:51 PM EST. The full moon will rise in the Northeastern horizon after sunset that evening. This moon is most commonly referred to as the Wolf Moon but can also be referred to by a large array of other names in different tribes and cultures around the world. Just to name a few, they include; Center Moon, Frost Exploding Moon, Greetings Moon, and Spirit Moon.
No comments:
Post a Comment