Winter Storm Looms

We are now entering the last week of Fall as Winter officially kicks off on Thursday, December 22 at 4:48 PM EST.

As you may have heard by now, fittingly so, a winter storm (picture below) will arrive towards the latter part of the week. This storm has sparked up a lot of curiousity and debate on all social media platforms. In today's world, we have supercomputers that run trillions of calculations a day. This allows meteorologists to use this data and inform the general public via weather forecasts on the upcoming weather pattern well ahead of time. You may ask, with all this data, why aren't the forecasts from all sources, the same?
When there is such variability in modeling data especially in the long term range, it's trickier to nail down which causes the wide difference in forecasts. While the general specifics may be correct, it's the smallest of details that is impossible to pinpoint way too far advance.

Here are a few things to consider:
(1) We know there is a storm but we don't know how strong of a storm it will be. The severity of the storm will impact total precipitation numbers.
(2) We know it will be warm enough for all modes of precipitation to be in play but we don't know the exact times each mode of precipitation will fall.
(3) We know the general direction the storm may take, region-wise, but we don't know the path down to the exact street, county, or city this storm will take.
(4) We know the rough estimates of time in days the storm will pass but we don't know the exact speed the storm will take down to the exact hour and minute.

Keeping all these things in mind, what we do know is, a winter storm traversing past the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions will bring both rain and snow to parts of Indiana on Thursday. Expectation is, for rain or mixing (on Thursday) to make the transition to all snow by Friday. We do not know the exact time that transition will be made, at this distance. The more the rain, the lower the snow totals. Due to a blocking pattern, cold arctic air, will quickly spill into the region. Again, we do not know the exact time this transition will happen. We know this cold plunge will spill in either late Thursday or sometime on Friday, perhaps early in the day. Since we have a general consensus from modeling data, that this will happen (the availibility of both moisture and cold air), we know there will be a period of all snow. Since we don't know how long snow may linger on Friday or its intensity, which can't be too much longer as it's expected to be wrapped up before or by daybreak Saturday, this makes it harder to pinpoint accurate accumulation totals. Regardless to what those totals may be, there is also the concern of heavy winds. Forecast wind gusts may exceed 40 mph on Friday. The smallest accumulation can cause blowing and drifting snow which could be blizzard-like. Snow does not need to be falling from the sky for it to be blizzard-like. Not saying this is an official blizzard but it could have characteristics of one. (Hope you read that carefully).

The weather models that meteorologist use is just a tool to help give guidance to the upcoming weather pattern. A weather forecast is simply just a prediction and meteorologist have no control over what happens or doesn't happen. At the end of the day, mother nature will do what it wants regardless to what the forecast says. There is no way to predict that with 100% accuracy.

Do not let this winter storm catch you off guard. There are so many ways to prepare now. All storms disrupt travel both on the ground and in the air. The timing of this upcoming winter storm is not ideal for holiday travelers. Given the details of this storm, at this distance, we know roads conditions will be very poor and possibly even unpassable in some locations. Also, planes will not be able to easily fly in these conditions. Check with INDOT on the latest for road conditions and check with airlines for delays and cancellations. When driving, make sure your vehicle is equipped to handle the conditions present at the time of travel. Faster drivers may be able to handle the terrain with the correct vehicle but there will be some slower drivers that can't. Regardless, it's always safe practice to slow down, increase the distance between your car and the car in front of you (do not cut somebody off) and give yourself, double the normal time to make the trip.
When flying, make sure you have an understanding of your airline's guidelines, in terms of re-booking or cancelling. Some airlines may not be able to offer a cash refund depending on the type of airline ticket purchased. If possible, try to book a flight to a different destination nearby.

Another tip, which goes out to panic buyers; do not hesitate to buy your milk and bread, in advance. If you didn't know, both milk and bread can be stored in the freezer for up to 6 months, without lost of taste.

Here is a look at the temperature forecast from this afternoon's run of the National Blend of Models. As you can see, we may drop to the single digits with potential of going below zero. Some locations may experience dangerous wind chills that exceed -20°F during the holiday weekend. Make sure you are layered up. Frostbite can settle in to exposed skin within a matter of minutes. FYI: 80% of body heat is loss through the head. It's wise to also wear some form of head covering.