Drought Analysis
As dry conditions continue to be very persistent these past few months with less than an inch of rainfall, we've headed into one of the worst droughts in Indianapolis Weather History (since 1871) running now 10" below normal. Just as worse as the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. These abnormally dry conditions have prompted most of the state to issue burn bans and some areas have put out mandatory water bans to keep the water supply up. It will take months, maybe years to recover from a drought this extreme.
Check this out:
In 2010, during the Thanksgiving Holiday, portions of Southern Indiana received up to 6" of rainfall in about a 2-day period. The real kicker here is river flooding did not occur. This is after having a prolonged sretch of dry weather.
So what will it take to get out of a drought this extreme?
At this point the only way to recover from a drought with such severity right now is to receive regular weekly rainfall amounts over an inch for maybe 2-3 months straight. One 3" rainfall day here and there will NOT alleviate our problems. We need something continuous and consistent that will get deep down into the dried out soils. Remnants from a tropical storm would be GREAT! Right now, there's nothing to be foreseen worth mentioning. Just chances here and there. It will only continue to get worse for more weeks to come.
Check out this graphic from The Weather Channel. Read More On This HERE!
These drought conditions have sparked up numerous grass fires these past few months. Either from the weather or from stupidity. Burn bans are issued for a reason. Failure to comply can lead to fines or jail time but importantly, lead to serious injury or death. Do NOT throw cigarette buds out your car windows or flick them out on the ground. Also, in the near future, autumn will be rolling around and many will want to have campfires. I hate to tell you this but burn bans prohibits bonfires and campfires. DO NOT have them. Please be smart and watch those BBQ grills. Make Safety your #1 Priority. Its dangerous out there.
Well CPC issued its latest drought analysis Thursday Morning. The coverage of an Exceptional Drought (highest drought category) in Southwestern Indiana has increased to nearly 25%. Ironically, storms swept pass this area Thursday Evening and brung some much needed rainfall. They recorded 2.31" out at the Evansville Airport. You can only imagine how much of a impact this would have made for the entire state had this been a widespread system. Unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, it will take more than a one day of a heavy soaker to replenish the soils and grass sufficently.
The following is a breakdown for last week vs this weeks drought conditions and also the latest Drought Map issued from CPC (Thursday).
| This Week |
Last Week |
Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abnormally Dry |
100% | 100% | UNCHANGED |
| Moderate Drought |
99.59% | 99.59% | UNCHANGED |
| Severe Drought |
84.85% | 87.23% | -2.38% |
| Extreme Drought |
59.05% | 57.75% | +2.80% |
| Except. Drought |
24.26% | 18.67% | +5.59% |
Rainfall Deficit Around the State
| Location | Year to Date Precipitation (through Aug. 3) | Departure from Average | Precip since June 1 | Departure from Average |
| Indianapolis | 15.98 | - 10.55 | 0.92 | -8.21 |
| Evansville | 16.18 | -12.05 | 4.80 | -3.19 |
| Lafayette | 12.47** | - 9.96 | 1.72 | -6.69 |
| Muncie | 15.82 | - 9.13 | 3.58 | -5.80 |
| Terre Haute | 13.12** | -14.89 | 0.82 | -8.75 |
| Bloomington | 13.46** | -16.56 | 1.71 | -8.42 |
| Shelbyville | 13.76 | -13.42 | 0.71 | -8.69 |
| Ft. Wayne | 15.35 | -8.22 | 5.00 | -3.77 |
| South Bend | 19.32 | - 2.56 | 8.02 | -0.14 |
| Indy - Eagle Creek | 13.77 | -11.95 | 0.63 | -8.28 |
Here's the list of days where precipitation has fallen since May 1st:
1) May 1st-----1.48"
2) May 4th----Trace
3) May 6th----Trace
4) May 7th----0.48"
5) May 8th----0.01"
6) May 9th----0.13"
7) May 21st---0.10"
8) May 29th---0.36"
9) May 31st---0.14"
1) June 1st-----Trace Amounts
2) June 2nd----0.03"
3) June 3rd-----Trace Amounts
4) June 4th-----0.02"
5) June 11th---Trace Amounts
6) June 29th---0.04"
7) June 30th--Trace Amounts
8) July 1st------Trace Amounts
9) July 8th------Trace Amounts
10) July 14th---Trace Amounts
11) July 18th---0.40"
12) July 19th---0.28"
13) July 20th----Trace Amounts
14) July 24th----Trace Amounts
15) July 27th----0.15"
16) July 31st----Trace Amounts
As you can see we've picked up 3.62" since May 1st, 0.92" since June 1st, and 0.83" since July 1st. We've only had 13 out of the past 95 days with measurable rainfall. Pretty Pathetic! Measurable Rainfall is anything 0.01" or higher.
When the dew point temp rises this means there's more moisture in the atmosphere. This correlates to an uptick in the humidity. It gives to a sticky feeling making it feel uncomfortable outside. When this happens the atmosphere is not all that conducive to evaporation (way your body cools off), so you'll have to take it easy when engaged in outdoor activities.
Thursday, even though we had highs in the mid to upper 90s, these dew point temps were low. When that number is low it keeps the humidity down. When both of these are down the air is dry. When the air is dry this allowed the temps to take off and warm up 35° from a low of 62° to an afternoon high of 97°. Las Vegas and Palm Springs were more humid Thursday than Indianapolis. Typically, its dry and hot in the desert which almost makes this seem like a rare event. This changed on Friday. The temps did not cool off as low as wednesday and thursday morning. Again, we recorded 73° Friday Morning. Some added cloud cover prevented temps from going beyond 93° during the noon hour but we did still manange to stay dry.
For our Saturday Forecast we start off dry. It will be humid and we will see some sunshine early in the day. Morning Lows should bottom out in the Low 70s. It will heat up and we'll have a mixure of sun & clouds in the afternoon with highs again the low to mid 90s.
Then we shift our attention to an approaching cold front which could bring out a severe weather outbreak Saturday Night into Sunday Morning as a squall line of thunderstorms sweep past the state from the Northwest. This will bring some strong damaging winds and brief heavy downpours. Given a strong jet stream and wind shear, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out as well but with any thunderstorms, comes with a 1% probability of tornadoes to spin up. Doesn't mean there will be any. This should be a fairly quick event. It will not linger for a long period of time so don't expect rainfall totals out the world. Computer models are spitting out an average total of half an inch in Indianapolis.
The storms will pass Sunday and we'll clear and dry out with highs in the upper 80s.
There will be a wind shift back to the Northwest which means Monday Morning lows will dip to the low 60s, some areas will hit 50s away from the city. A northwest wind will make for a pleasant & sunny Monday with temps only reaching the mid 80s.
Next week, they'll be a combination of temps in the upper 80s and 90s with an isolated chance for rain on Tuesday but a better chance at the end of the week.
There is a signal of a big pattern shift for next weekend. We could have high temperature reading into the 70s. Thats something that hasn't been achieved since June 6th (77°). 850 millibar temperature map 240 hrs out shows the Eastern U.S. engulfed in cooler air while the heat migrates to the West. This could be good news for Indiana because this could allow for some much needed rain development but I will monitor and see how this will plays out as it becomes more clear in the coming days. Have A Good Weekend!
No comments:
Post a Comment