We ended the month of June with 85 out of 92 counties in Indiana under some sort of a burn ban. Since then the number has been on a decline. On August 1, we had 67 counties under a burn, that number dropped to 21 counties as of 7AM Friday.
Here's the latest map.
I'm a day late. Yesterday, CPC released its weekly drought analysis and there were some improvements considering the wet month the state has had but 37% of the state is still in a Extreme Drought. This covers much of the Southern Half of the State, including Indianapolis. Still 81% of the state is in atleast a Severe Drought so everyone could still use a lot more rain.
| This Week |
Last Week |
Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abnormally Dry |
100% | 100% | UNCHANGED |
| Moderate Drought |
98.14% | 98.16% | -0.02% |
| Severe Drought |
81.48% | 81.43% | +0.05% |
| Extreme Drought |
37.09% | 46.30% | -9.21% |
| Except. Drought |
10.77% | 16.63% | -5.86% |
Rainfall Deficit Around the State
| Location | Year to Date Precipitation (through Aug. 23) | Departure from Average | Precip since June 1 | Departure from Average |
| Indianapolis | 21.02 | - 7.51 | 5.96 | -5.17 |
| Evansville | 17.84 | -12.34 | 6.46 | -3.48 |
| Lafayette | 14.92** | - 9.76 | 4.17 | -6.49 |
| Terre Haute | 16.23** | -13.86 | 3.93 | -7.72 |
| Muncie | 18.52 | - 8.52 | 6.28 | -5.19 |
| Bloomington | 15.77** | -16.39 | 4.02 | -8.25 |
| Shelbyville | 16.19 | -13.03 | 3.14 | -8.30 |
| Ft. Wayne | 18.06 | -7.88 | 7.71 | -3.43 |
| South Bend | 23.35 | - 0.97 | 12.05 | +1.45 |
| Indy - Eagle Creek | 20.17 | -7.54 | 7.03 | -3.87 |
Here's the list of days where precipitation has fallen since May 1st:
1) May 1st------1.48"
2) May 4th------Trace
3) May 6th------Trace
4) May 7th------0.48"
5) May 8th------0.01"
6) May 9th------0.13"
7) May 21st-----0.10"
8) May 29th-----0.36"
9) May 31st------0.14"
1) June 1st-------Trace Amounts
2) June 2nd------0.03"
3) June 3rd-------Trace Amounts
4) June 4th-------0.02"
5) June 11th-----Trace Amounts
6) June 29th-----0.04"
7) June 30th----Trace Amounts
8) July 1st--------Trace Amounts
9) July 8th-------Trace Amounts
10) July 14th----Trace Amounts
11) July 18th----0.40"
12) July 19th----0.28"
13) July 20th----Trace Amounts
14) July 24th----Trace Amounts
15) July 27th----0.15"
16) July 31st----Trace Amounts
17) Aug. 4th----0.25"
18) Aug. 5th----1.26"
19) Aug. 8th----0.94"
20) Aug. 9th----1.47"
21) Aug. 10th---Trace Amounts
22) Aug. 13th---0.28"
23) Aug. 16th---0.78"
24) Aug. 17th---0.06"
If you do the math (well...I've done it for you) than you can see we've picked up 8.66" since May 1st, 5.96" since June 1st, 5.13" since July 1st, and 5.04" since August 1st. Now 20 out of the past 115 days have been recorded with measurable rainfall. Measurable Rainfall is anything 0.01" or higher (Trace Amounts aren't measurable).
August 2012
High Temperature/Low Temperature/Precipitation
Aug 1----91/65/NONE
Aug 2----97/62/NONE
Aug 3----93/73/NONE
Aug 4----94/74/0.25"
Aug 5----88/70/1.26"
Aug 6----89/65/NONE
Aug 7----95/65/NONE
Aug 8----98/69/0.94"
Aug 9----87/66/1.47"
Aug 10--77/63/Trace
Aug 11--79/60/NONE
Aug 12--83/58/NONE
Aug 13--82/66/0.28"
Aug 14--80/64/NONE
Aug 15--86/61/NONE
Aug 16--82/65/0.78"
Aug 17--79/62/0.06"
Aug 18--78/54/NONE
Aug 19--79/59/NONE
Aug 20--81/56/NONE
Aug 21--81/58/NONE
Aug 22--85/59/NONE
Aug 23--88/61/NONE
The average high for this August is 85.7° with a average low of 63.3°. This puts the average monthly temp at 74.5°.
This months precipitation exceeds 5". This is well above normal. The normal monthly precipitation amount is 3.13" for August.
The days continue to get shorter. We've lost 48 mins 34 secs of daylight since August 1(ending 8/23).
8/1 Forecast:92 Actual:91
8/2 Forecast:98 Actual:97
8/3 Forecast:94 Actual:93
8/4 Forecast:94 Actual:94
8/5 Forecast:90 Actual:88
8/6 Forecast:89 Actual:89
8/7 Forecast:94 Actual:95
8/8 Forecast:95 Actual:98
8/9 Forecast:87 Actual:87
8/10 Forecast:79 Actual:77
8/11 Forecast:78 Actual:79
8/12 Forecast:82 Actual:83
8/13 Forecast:80 Actual:82
8/14 Forecast:80 Actual:80
8/15 Forecast:87 Actual:86
8/16 Forecast:89 Actual:82
8/17 Forecast:78 Actual:79
8/18 Forecast:78 Actual:78
8/19 Forecast:80 Actual:79
8/20 Forecast:80 Actual:81
8/21 Forecast:81 Actual:81
8/22 Forecast:86 Actual:85
8/23 Forecast:89 Acutal:88
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST)
Its been a warm summer, but with the recent cool off we've lost our status as the #1 hottest summer on record. We recorded 13 consecutive days with an avg daily temp at or below normal (84°), which started August 9th and ended on the 13th. This is the longest stretch since February 6th-19th, 2010. During that time, average daily temperatures ranged anywhere from 5 to 13 degrees below normal. That's when temps were in the single digits & teens for lows temps and 20s for highs.
We now only have 1 weeks left of meteorological summer and 4 weeks left of astronomical summer. About 75% (63 days) out of the past 84 days have been above normal. The average high for this season is 89.2° with an avg low of 66.1°. This puts the avg temperature this summer (Since June 1) at 77.7° which is about 5° above normal. This season is currently the 5th warmest summer on record. Here's the Top Five list:
2) 1936---78.5°
3) 1934---78.2°
4) 2010---78.1°
5) 2012---77.7°
6) 2011---77.6°
Currently, we sit at 49 days with temps 90+ for the year. We need 9 more to tie the record of 58 set in 1983 and 10 more days to break it. We have about 3 chances to inch closer to yet another historic event over the next 5 days.
FRIDAY
The humidity begins to creep up as much of the midwest will be basked in late summer heat but not too terrible. We are headed back to what may very well be our 50th day this year with a temp of atleast 90°. If you weren't able to see the city views from one of Indianapolis Tower Cams late yesterday afternoon, it wasn't all that much of a pretty view. We did have the sunshine, but the air looked very dirty. There was an air quality alert yesterday, this goes the same for today. More smog will be in the air, therefore, today has been declared another Knozone Action Day.
The sunshine continues on today. High temperatures for Central Indiana should range anywhere between 89°-92°. For tonight, the temperatures should fall back to the upper 60s under clear skies.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM | Sunset: 8:27 PM | Length of Day: 13h 21m 42s | Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: 2 MIN 25 SECS
SATURDAY
Another dry, hot, and sunny day. Might feel a little more humid outside than Friday. High Temperatures should again achieve the 90° mark. This could mark the 51st 90° day of the year.
For the evening, temperatures should fall back in the low 70s, upper 60s under mostly clear skies.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM | Sunset: 8:26 PM | Length of Day: 13h 19m 15s | Daylight Lost Since Friday: 2 MIN 26 SECS
SUNDAY
With the heat and humidity expected over the weekend this will destablize the atmosphere making it more conducive for thunderstorms to fire up. The sky will fill up with more clouds. We'll still have some sunshine too. Most storm activity will not arrive until late afternoon or in the evening hours. High temperatures again will flirt with low 90s. The storm threat will continue overnight into Monday. Sunday overnight lows will fall back into the low to mid 60s.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM | Sunset: 8:24 PM | Length of Day: 13h 16m 49s | Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: 2 MIN 26 SECS
NEXT WEEK
We'll start the work week off on Monday, with our best chance of rain for the week as a cold front passes. Could be a soggy day with hefty rainfall amounts depending on what track the low pressure takes. For now, I'll forecast a half inch up to an inch. This will be more clear later tomorrow afternoon. Temps get a brief thermal break into the low to mid 80s for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday but by Thursday temps are back in the upper 80s trying to make its run at another 90° day.
UPCOMING.....
Could see some late week rain chances going into the weekend. This would be remnants from Tropical Storm (soon-to-be? Hurricane) Isaac. This would be beneficial rain for the state if we were to get enough moisture from this system. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Not promised though. Otherwise, we could be looking at more resurgent heat. It doesn't look like summer is done just yet.
As I mentioned earlier, Indianapolis currently sits at 49 days for this year with temps 90+. The record is 58 set back in 1983.
How great are our chances of breaking that?
Well, we have 3 good chances Today, Tomorrow, and maybe even on Sunday as well. Most of next week looks like 80s. More heat is on the horizon though. I've taken a look back 5 years and in September we've had no more than 5 days with temps 90+. We had 5 in 2007 and 2010. 4 last year and 3 in 2008. There was none in 2009.
SEPTEMBER
2011: 99° on 1st & 2nd. 100° on 3rd. 92° on 13th.
2010: 91° on 1st & 13th, 90° on 6th, 96° on 21st, 94° on 23rd.
2008: 91° on 1st 7 3rd. 93° on 2nd.
2007: 91° on 3rd, 94° on 2nd, 96° on 3rd, 90° on 23rd, & 92° on 24th.
This pretty much averages out to 3 days. Considering, we could be heading back into the oven for a few days, I'll bump that up to 4 days next month. Adding that to 3 maybe 4 chances the rest of August that could put the total anywhere from 55 to 57 days. We'll see how this plays out though. The difference will come down to 1-3 days, so if we can manage to hold onto the heat that long then we could tie it, at best. We'll be close, but I think we'll fail to atleast break the record.
Also, while I'm talking about record heat, the record for most 100° days in a year is 12 set back in 1936. We stand at 9 this year.
TROPIC WATCH
First off, there is much attentiveness on Tropical Storm Isaac. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports at 11AM that it is strengthening as it travels WNW towards the southern coast of Hispaniola. Visible Satellite Imagery shows its characteristics with maximum sustained winds at 60 MPH.
CURRENT WATCHES & WARNINGS:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Although, this hasn't become completely organized, the path of this storm and its direct impact on the U.S. is still up for debate. Here's NHC's map of the storms path. There are favoring the trusted European Model.
Tropical Storm Joyce is Weakening and is now back to a Tropical Depression. Here's the short discussion from NHC:
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOYCE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE
REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2
WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT THE REMNANT LOW COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME.
| SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY | SATURDAY |
 HOT |
Partly |
T'Storm |
Partly |
Sunny |
Sunny |
Remnants of |
AM |
| Sunny | Cloudy | Isaac? | Rain? | ||||
| 93 | 90 | 84 | 85 | 87 | 88 | 87 | 88 |
| 71 | 66 | 61 | 65 | 68 | 67 | 67 | 69 |
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