Storms Ending Overnight, Pleasant Cooler Weekend Ahead

Good Evening! Its been a wet month. Drought conditions have shown small improvement but as I stated before in previous blogs, one week or two weeks are just not good enough. As long as we are in the negative, EVERY DAY that is dry helps contribute to drought conditions worsening. We still need another few weeks of consistent regular rainfall to help alleviate the dry pattern that was persistent for much of May, all of June and July. CPC has released their weekly drought analysis this morning. Here's the latest drought map, updated deficit chart, and how this weeks drought analysis compares to last weeks analysis.

	This Week	Last Week	Difference
Abnormally Dry	100%	100%	UNCHANGED
Moderate Drought	98.16%	100%	-1.84%
Severe Drought	81.43%	89.75%	-8.32%
Extreme Drought	46.30%	63.56%	-22.26%
Except. Drought	16.63%	25.00%	-8.37%

Rainfall Deficit Around the State

Location	Year to Date Precipitation (through Aug. 15)	Departure from Average	Precip since June 1	Departure from Average
Indianapolis	20.18	-  7.52	5.12	-5.18
Evansville	17.04	-12.34	5.66	-3.48
Lafayette	13.53**	-10.17	2.78	-6.90
Muncie	17.73	-  8.45	5.49	-5.12
Terre Haute	13.83**	-15.35	1.53	-9.21
Bloomington	13.88**	-17.35	2.13	-9.21
Shelbyville	15.82	-12.43	2.77	-7.70
Ft. Wayne	17.83	-7.19	7.48	-2.74
South Bend	22.50	-  0.87	11.20	+1.55
Indy - Eagle Creek	19.07	-7.80	5.93	-4.13

**Precipitation not available on some days since January 1.


Here's the list of days where precipitation has fallen since May 1st:
1) May 1st------1.48"
2) May 4th------Trace
3) May 6th------Trace
4) May 7th------0.48"
5) May 8th------0.01"
6) May 9th------0.13"
7) May 21st-----0.10"
8) May 29th-----0.36"
9) May 31st------0.14"
1) June 1st-------Trace Amounts
2) June 2nd------0.03"
3) June 3rd-------Trace Amounts
4) June 4th-------0.02"
5) June 11th-----Trace Amounts
6) June 29th-----0.04"
7) June 30th----Trace Amounts
8) July 1st--------Trace Amounts
9) July 8th-------Trace Amounts
10) July 14th----Trace Amounts
11) July 18th----0.40"
12) July 19th----0.28"
13) July 20th----Trace Amounts
14) July 24th----Trace Amounts
15) July 27th----0.15"
16) July 31st----Trace Amounts
17) Aug. 4th----0.25"
18) Aug. 5th----1.26"
19) Aug. 8th----0.94"
20) Aug. 9th----1.47"
21) Aug. 10th---Trace Amounts
22) Aug. 13th---0.28"
If you do the math (well...I've done it for you) than you can see we've picked up 7.82" since May 1st, 5.12" since June 1st, 4.29" since July 1st, and 4.20" since August 1st. Now 18 out of the past 107 days have been recorded with measurable rainfall. Measurable Rainfall is anything 0.01" or higher (Trace Amounts aren't measurable).

With much getting some drought relief and rising water levels, a handful of Indiana counties, mainly the Nortthern half of Indiana, have lifted their burn bans. At the end of June, 85 out of 92 counties were under a burn ban. The number has now dropped to 39. That means now 42% of the state is under a burn ban. Some counties that have recently dropped within the past week are Boone, Carroll, Clinton, Daviess, Decatur, Delaware, Fountain, Franklin, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, Jasper, Knox, Montgomery, Pike, Rush, Union, Warren, and Wayne Counties.
Marion County in Indianapolis reports that burn bans and water bans will continue to remain in effect. Water levels need to rise 6"-12" before entertaining the idea of lifting the bans. Also, remember, non-professional fireworks display is still prohibited until December 31st.
Here's the burn ban map which was last updated around 4PM.



August 2012
High Temperature/Low Temperature/Precipitation
Aug 1----91/65/NONE
Aug 2----97/62/NONE
Aug 3----93/73/NONE
Aug 4----94/74/0.25"
Aug 5----88/70/1.26"
Aug 6----89/65/NONE
Aug 7----95/65/NONE
Aug 8----98/69/0.94"
Aug 9----87/66/1.47"
Aug 10--77/63/Trace
Aug 11--79/60/NONE
Aug 12--83/58/NONE
Aug 13--82/66/0.28"
Aug 14--80/64/NONE
Aug 15--86/61/NONE

The average high for this August is 87.9° with a average low of 65.4°. This puts the average monthly temp at 76.7°.
This months precipiation exceeds 4". This is well above normal. The normal monthly precipitation amount is 3.13" for August.
We are half way through the month and we've lost 32 mins 2 secs of daylight since August 1. The days continue to get shorter.

Well a Powerful Cold Front is sweeping past the state tonight. This is bringing us well needed rain with some under a gusty thunderstorm. These are actually pre-frontal storms. This should begin to diminish around or after midnight once the front actually passes.

On the back side of this system, the temperatures will tumble. A Greenland Block is pushing Cooler Air Southbound. Some areas in the upper midwest and midwest could see Record Low Temperatures in August. Here's how close we'll be in Indianapolis, within 5°:
Saturday Morning Low-Forecasted: 52°||RECORD: 48° set in 1963
Sunday Morning Low---Forecasted: 54°||RECORD: 50° set in 1896
Monday Morning Low---Forecasted: 55°||RECORD: 50° set in 1897



The weekend will be dry & sunny but cooler with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s around the state. Mid to upper 70s south.


Upcoming.....
The North Atlantic Oscillation is in pulses. It goes positive and negative bringing temperature swings up and down. Like a tug-of-war contest their will be warms days followed by cool days back to warms days on a repetitive cycle. Their is an indication that some heat will try to return for the final days of the month but don't be fooled, don't expect a major heat wave to return. At this point, we can write the heart of the summer heat off. I will note though the latest 100° day was recorded September 15, 1939 (100°) and the latest 90° day was recorded October 8, 2007 (91°). I'm not saying their won't be a hot day. I'm saying the heat will not be as persistent meaning their won't be consecutive weeks of relentless heat.

10 DAY DETAILED OUTLOOK
>
Tonight-Showers/T'Storms. Winds Shift from SW to NW. Low 64

Friday-Sunny & Pleasant. Not as wam. High 77 .
Sunrise-6:59AM | Sunset-8:37PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 38 MIN 23 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 19 SECS
Friday PM-Clear & Cooler. Low 52

Saturday-Sunny & Pleasant. High 76.
Sunrise-7:00AM | Sunset-8:36PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 36 MIN 3 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 20 SECS
Saturday PM-Mostly Clear. Cool. Low 54.

Sunday-Sunny & Pleasant. High 76.
Sunrise-7:01AM | Sunset-8:35PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 33 MIN 41 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 21 SECS
Sunday PM-Mostly Clear & Cool. Low 55.

Monday-Sunny. Becoming Warmer. High 81.
Sunrise-7:02AM | Sunset-8:33PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 31 MIN 19 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 22 SECS
Monday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 59.

Tuesday-Sunny & Warm. High 84.
Sunrise-7:03AM | Sunset-8:32PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 28 MIN 56 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 23 SECS
Tuesday PM-Clear. Not as Cool. Low 62.

Wednesday-Sunny & Hot. High 92.
Sunrise-7:04AM | Sunset-8:30PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 26 MIN 32 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 23 SECS
Wednesday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 66.

Thursday-Sunny & Hot. High 90.
Sunrise-7:05AM | Sunset-8:29PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 24 MIN 7 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 24 SECS
Thursday PM-Mostly Cloudy. Chance of T'Storm. Low 68.

Friday-Mix Sun & Clouds. Chance of AM Shower/T'Storm. High 88.
Sunrise-7:06AM | Sunset-8:27PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 21 MIN 42 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 25 SECS
Friday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 67.

Saturday-Partly Sunny. High 91.
Sunrise-7:07AM | Sunset-8:26PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 19 MIN 15 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 26 SECS
Saturday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 65.

Sunday-Partly Sunny. High 86.
Sunrise-7:07AM | Sunset-8:24PM | Duration of Day-13 HR 16 MIN 49 SECS | Daylight Lost-2 MIN 26 SECS
Sunday PM-Clear Skies. Low 63.