Remnants of Isaac is still headed our way. It first formed back on August 21st from a tropical wave East of the Lesser Antilles. It made its trip through the Atlantic passing over Hispaniola and Cuba (killing 29 people) and heading into the Gulf Coast making the 1st lanfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana near the mouth of the Mississippi River. It made its 2nd landfall in Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Its headed its way Northwest passing through the Mississipp Valley.
According to Hurricane Hunters, Issac reached Hurricane status (CAT 1) on the 28th, 75 miles South-Southeast from the mouth of the Mississippi River. It later weakened to a tropical storm on the 29th as it passed through Louisiana. It was then later downgraded to a tropical depression on the 30th over Northern Louisiana.
This tropical system continued its path through Arkansas up to Missouri extending out to Illinois. This will begin to head East towards the Ohio Valley. This will pass through Illinois tonight and then track into Indiana and then Ohio over the Labor Day holiday weekend. So far this system has traveled around 3,000 miles and have killed atleast 5 in the Dominican Republic, 29 in Haiti, 3 in Louisiana, and 1 in Mississippi.
Indianapolis can expect a wet weekend but there will be some dry hours too. Here's my breakdown.
SATURDAY
The mornings hours we can expect some rain in the area. Could see a period of dry hours midday around lunch time but more rain could probably filter in during the evening hours. Rain can be expected at any time during the day. Rain totals should be around half an inch or less.
SUNDAY
Most the weekends rain will fall on this day. Heavy Downpours can be expected. Can't rule out some thunderstorm activity and possibly the threat for an isolated tornado. Flooding will be a concern. Rain totals could vary. Could see up to an inch and half for this day.
MONDAY
More downpours can be expected particularly in the morning hours and early afternoon hours. Rain chances should wind down in the late afternoon or early evening hours. Flooding will be a concern. Rain totals could vary. Could see up to an inch for this day.
I put the total amount of rain for the total weekend between 2"-4" of rain. Some could see more, some could see less. Tropical Systems are hard to forecast. The main thing to remember, it will rain but at times, there will be some dry hours.
We'll dry out for most of the remainder of the week. Another pattern change is in store to fall-like weather. We could see highs fall back below normal for next weekend.
SEPTEMBER
As we head into the new month I'd like to go over some averages and other statistics.
The average high decreases from 83° on the 1st to 72° on the 30th. While the average low decreases from 62° on the 1st to 50° on the 30th. The average daily temp decreases from 73° on the 1st to 61° on the 30th.
We average 3.12" of rainfall for the month.
Sunrise is at 7:13 AM on the 1st. This gradually rises later to 7:40 AM on the 30th.
Sunset is at 8:15 PM on the 1st. This gradually sets earlier to 7:28PM on the 30th.
We lose 1hr 16 min 46 secs of daylight during this month.
The Autumnal (Fall) Equinox occurs at 10:49 AM on September 22nd.
Nearly 65% of the months days are sunny. We average about 20 out of 30 days with sunshine making this the 2nd sunniest month of the year behind August. The latest 100° day on record occured this month on September 15, 1939.
The earliest first freeze date on record occured during this month in the years of 1889 and 1993 on the 30th.
I've taken a look back over the past 10 years and in September we've had no more than 5 days with temps 90+. We had 5 in 2002, 2007 and 2010. 4 last year and 3 in 2008. There was none in 2009, 2006, 2005, 2004, and 2003.
SEPTEMBER
2011: 99° on 1st & 2nd. 100° on 3rd. 92° on 13th.
2010: 91° on 1st & 13th, 90° on 6th, 96° on 21st, 94° on 23rd.
2008: 91° on 1st 7 3rd. 93° on 2nd.
2007: 91° on 3rd, 94° on 2nd, 96° on 3rd, 90° on 23rd, & 92° on 24th.
2002: 90° on 2nd, 91° on 9th & 10th, & 93° on the 7th & 8th.
Each of the past 10 Septembers have featured atleast one day with a high temperature in the 60s. 8 out of the past 10 Septembers have featured atleast one day with a low temperature in the 40s. There were no 40s recorded in the years of 2009 and 2008. Here I've listed the first day in September with a high in the 60s and a low in the 40s for the past 10 years from 2002-2011.
1) 2011: September 6th-High of 68°
September 15th-Low of 46°
2) 2010: September 26th-High of 65°
September 4th-Low of 48°
3) 2009: September 25th-High of 67°
4) 2008: September 15th-High of 67°
5) 2007: September 15th-High of 64°
September 12th-Low of 49°
6) 2006: September 13th-High of 66°
September 19th-Low of 47°
7) 2005: September 29th-High 65°
Low 46°
8) 2004: September 29th- High 68°
Low 48°
9) 2003: September 19th-High 68°
Low 48°
10)2002: September 22nd- High 66°
Low 48°
SEPTEMBER 2012 OUTLOOKS
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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its outlooks for September. They are calling for above normal temperatures and precipitation. With remnants from Isaac this will give us most, if not, all of our average monthly precipitation for September in the first few days of the month. So, I think we all can agree that we will finish once again with above normal precipitation.
Temperatures next month could be tricky. I think the first half of the month we'll deal mostly with near normal temperatures with a few days with below normal temperatures. Typically, mid month in September to late September we usually get a cool off. If you look above you see most of the time we've recorded 60° highs and 40° lows in the second half of the month. We've also recorded 90s during any time of the month. I don't think you can really be certain as to where temperatures will be for the second half of the month this early on. We kick of astronomical fall the 22nd. In the end, I believe the average temperature (the combination of the high and low temps) will be above normal. I think the highs and lows will be near normal to above normal for the month. Keep in mind, typically the average high and low decreases as the month goes on, just like any month in fall, you can expect some below normal cool days but I agree with CPC on this as well though. We should end with above nomral temps.
| SEPT. 1 | SEPT. 2 | SEPT. 3 | SEPT. 4 | SEPT. 5 | SEPT. 6 | SEPT. 7 | SEPT. 8 |
| SATURDAY | SUNDAY | LABOR DAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY | SATURDAY |
R E M N A |
N T S O F I |
S A A C |
MOSTLY |
SUNNY |
30% Chance |
P. Cloudy |
P. Cloudy |
| FLOODING | POSSIBLE | SUNNY | of Rain | C O O L E | R A I R | ||
| 84 | 80 | 85 | 87 | 87 | 86 | 79 | 81 |
| 70 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 68 | 63 | 56 | 59 |
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