Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Some Wet and Dry Days Ahead

The wet days are briefly taking a very short break. We finally dried out today after picking up a 3 day rainfall total of 1.92" at Indy Airport from what was leftover from Isaac. I told you guys in a previous blog and on my twitter page that typically we do see about 2" on avg from remnants of tropical systems.
Well, we had some morning fog to contend with but once it burned off we were rewarded with plenty of warmth & sunshine for the afternoon. As of 5PM, the high temperature was 88° with heat indices in the 90s. Dew Points still pretty high in the low 70s so it did make it feel pretty sticky today. Its not that your body sweats more but its the fact that humdity in the atmosphere isn't all that conducive to evaporation. Evaporation is your bodys way of cooling you off. We'll probably stay humid for the next few days but there is a cold front headed our way. This will usher in a cooler brand of air. We could go 3-4 consecutive days below 80. For some away from the city weekend temps could fail to reach 70s Saturday, particularly North. As I've stated in previous blogs in each September over the past 10 years Indianapolis has recorded a high temperature in the 60s. Also, in 8 of those, we've recorded a 40° low temperature. There were no 40s in 2008 and 2009.

1) 2011: September 6th-High of 68°
              September 15th-Low of 46°

2) 2010: September 26th-High of 65°

              September 4th-Low of 48°

3) 2009: September 25th-High of 67°

4) 2008: September 15th-High of 67°

5) 2007: September 15th-High of 64°

              September 12th-Low of 49°

6) 2006: September 13th-High of 66°
              September 19th-Low of 47°

7) 2005: September 29th-High 65°
                                          Low 46°

8) 2004: September 29th- High 68°
                                           Low 48°

9) 2003: September 19th-High 68°
                                          Low 48°

10)2002: September 22nd- High 66°
                                             Low 48°
With the much needed weekend rainfall, we continue to see even more of a dent in the deficit. Not only are our numbers getting closer to where they should be for the year but also reservoir levels are on the rise. This is bringing up stir for debate on whether watering restrictions/bans should be lifted and it will be lifted tomorrow afternoon.
"I am pleased to lift the water ban with the strong word of caution that residents continue to be judicious in their water use," said Mayor Ballard. "Despite recent heavy rains, it falls upon everyone to work together and follow Citizens' voluntary conservation recommendations to keep demand low."
We do pretty much have daily chances for rain over the next 5 days but not all are complete washouts & some may not see a drop but for others, their could be quite a big gusher. Saturday looks to be the wettest day.

Rainfall Deficit Around the State
Location Year to Date Precipitation
(through Sept. 3)
Departure from Average Precip since Sept 1 Departure from Average
Indianapolis 24.41 -  5.22 1.92 +1.62
Evansville 20.90 -10.31 2.93 +2.64
Lafayette 19.05** -  6.76 1.64 +1.38
Terre Haute 18.57** -13.11 1.03 +0.63
Muncie 19.66 -  8.56 0.74 +0.43
Bloomington 18.33** -15.16 2.03 +1.73
Shelbyville 17.81 -12.77 1.09 +0.79
Ft. Wayne 19.67 -  7.47 0.81 +0.51
South Bend 24.58 -  1.05 TRACE -0.36
Indy - Eagle Creek 22.88 -  5.01 1.75 +1.51
**Precipitation not available on some days since January 1.


Here's the list of days where precipitation has fallen since May 1st:
1) May 1st------1.48"
2) May 4th------Trace
3) May 6th------Trace
4) May 7th------0.48"
5) May 8th------0.01"
6) May 9th------0.13"
7) May 21st-----0.10"
8) May 29th-----0.36"
9) May 31st------0.14"
1) June 1st-------Trace Amounts
2) June 2nd------0.03"
3) June 3rd-------Trace Amounts
4) June 4th-------0.02"
5) June 11th-----Trace Amounts
6) June 29th-----0.04"
7) June 30th----Trace Amounts
8) July 1st--------Trace Amounts
9) July 8th-------Trace Amounts
10) July 14th----Trace Amounts
11) July 18th----0.40"
12) July 19th----0.28"
13) July 20th----Trace Amounts
14) July 24th----Trace Amounts
15) July 27th----0.15"
16) July 31st----Trace Amounts
17) Aug. 4th----0.25"
18) Aug. 5th----1.26"
19) Aug. 8th----0.94"
20) Aug. 9th----1.47"
21) Aug. 10th---Trace Amounts
22) Aug. 13th---0.28"
23) Aug. 16th---0.78"
24) Aug. 17th---0.06"
25) Aug. 27th---1.47"
26) Aug. 31st---Trace Amounts
27) Sept. 1st---0.38"
28) Sept. 2nd---1.53"
29) Sept. 3rd---0.01"
If you do the math (well...I've done it for you) than you can see we've picked up 12.05" since May 1st, 9.35" since June 1st, 8.52" since July 1st, 8.43" since August 1st, and 1.92" since September 1st. Now 24 out of the past 127 days have been recorded with measurable rainfall. Measurable Rainfall is anything 0.01" or higher (Trace Amounts aren't measurable).
We should stay dry tonight and all day tomorrow but tomorrow evening there is the threat for severe weather. SPC has put Indiana in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. This really goes for NW Indiana & Upper Great Lakes Region which includes Chicago along with most of Illinois. This could possibly hangout into the Thursday Morning. We should dry out & see more sunshine (Thursday Afternoon) before more weekend chances for rain arrives along with cooler temperatures.



10 Day Total Precipitation Numbers are over 3 inches!! I think this are coming off pretty heavy. I expect this number to come down but I think we should only squeeze out maybe an inch. Most of these rain chances are weak. I think Saturday is our best shot at rain along with some on Wednesday Night.



METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST)
Meteorological summer has ended and it went down as the 5th warmest summer on record. It started off hot & dry. We had a avg temp of 74.6° for the month of June and only 0.09" of rain. The avg temp of July was 84° with 0.83" of rain. The warmest high temperature in June was 104° on June 28th and the coolest low was 48° on June 2nd (the last day the city saw 40s).
The warmest high temperature in July was 105° on both July 6th and 7th (1° away from the tying the record for all time highest temperature in Indy, 106°). The coolest low temperature was 61° on July 21st.
Then August rolled around and the tables turned. We recorded 13 consecutive days with an avg daily temp at or below normal (84°), which started August 9th and ended on the 13th. August finished with a avg temp of 74.9°. The warmest high temperature for August was 98° on August 8th. The coolest low temperature was 54° on Aug. 18th.
The August cool off had dropped Summer 2012 from being the #1 warmest on record to the 5th warmest on record.
Out of the seasons 92 days; 69 days were above normal (75%), 4 days were normal(4.3%), and the remaining 19 days were below normal(20.7%). The average high for this season is 89.4° with an avg low of 66.2°. This put the avg summer temperature at 77.8° which is about 5° above normal. 19 out of the past 21 months have been above normal (since Dec 2010). Top Five Warmest Summers:

1) 1874---78.6°
2) 1936---78.5°
3) 1934---78.2°
4) 2010---78.1°
5) 2012---77.8°

Currently, we sit at 51 days with temps 90+ for the year. We need 7 more to tie the record of 58 set in 1983 and 8 more days to break it. At this point it doesn't look like we will reach this historic record.
I've taken a look back 5 years and in September we've had no more than 5 days with temps 90+. We had 5 in 2007 and 2010. 4 last year and 3 in 2008. There was none in 2009.
                                                                                SEPTEMBER
                                                                                2011: 99° on 1st & 2nd. 100° on 3rd. 92° on 13th.
                                                                                2010: 91° on 1st & 13th, 90° on 6th, 96° on 21st, 94° on 23rd.
                                                                                2008: 91° on 1st 7 3rd. 93° on 2nd.
                                                                                2007: 91° on 3rd, 94° on 2nd, 96° on 3rd, 90° on 23rd, & 92° on 24th.

This pretty much averages out to 2-3 days. Also, while I'm talking about record heat, the record for most 100° days in a year is 12 set back in 1936. We stand at 9 this year. That will likely stand tall. This is Record Position #3.
Here's the Monthly Observations for January 2012-August 2012:

Month
of
Year
AVG.
High
Temp.
AVG.
Low
Temp.
AVG.
Monthly
Temp.
Precip Snowfall
JANUARY 41.9° 29.5° 33.7° 3.48" 4.40"
FEBRUARY 45.5° 29.1° 37.3° 1.38" 2.20"
MARCH 67.1° 46.1° 56.6° 4.14" 0.70"
APRIL 65.2° 43.8° 54.5° 3.36" NONE
MAY 79.6° 58.0° 68.8° 2.70" NONE
JUNE 86.4° 62.7° 74.5° 0.09" NONE
JULY 95.6° 72.3° 84° 0.83" NONE
AUGUST 86.1° 63.6° 74.9° 6.51" NONE
JAN-AUG 70.9° 52° 61.5° 22.49" 7.30"

***10 DAY FORECAST***

SEPT. 5 SEPT. 6 SEPT. 7 SEPT. 8 SEPT. 9 SEPT. 10 SEPT. 11 SEPT. 12 SEPT. 13 SEPT. 14
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY

Partly

Sunny

Chance of

Showers &

Chance of

Sunny

Partly

Partly

Sunny

Sunny
Sunny T'Storms T'Storms T'Storms Cloudy Cloudy
WET COOLER WEATHER PATTERN
89 84 81 70 73 76 82 82 80 83
70 67 64 55 53 57 59 58 56 59





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