Cool Weekend Ahead

Dry Now, Becoming Wet Later


Good Thursday To All! The drought map were released this morning and the latest analysis from CPC indicates very little change over the past 7 days. On the image below to the left shows the drought map for last week. The image on the right is the drought map for this week. There was only a 1% drop with the ongoing Severe Drought in Southern Indiana. Indianapolis remains in a deficit of over 3" for the year. More Details Below.

	This Week	Last Week	Difference
Abnormally Dry	100%	100%	UNCHANGED
Moderate Drought	88.38%	88.32%	+0.06%
Severe Drought	25.61%	26.83%	-1.22%

A weak drought began in May in Indianapolis. We average 5.05" of rain during this month but only picked up 2.70". Thats 2.35" below normal. Then in June we only picked up 0.09". We average 4.25" for the month finishing 4.16" below normal. July got a little better but still was pretty sparse as we only picked up 0.83". Thats 3.72" below the normal months average of 4.55". The pattern began to change when August rolled around. On August 3, the rainfall deficit for the year was 10.55" (below normal). A more active weather pattern brought 6.51" of beneficial rain to the city for August. This ended the month with a deficit of 6.84" for the year. August finished with 3.38" above normal precipitation (rainfall) for the month.
Then Tropical Depression #9 formed down in the Atlantic. Winds picked up and became a Tropical Storm, later strengthening into a what was best knowns as Hurricane Isaac. As it moves it way across land it downgraded back into a depression. This tropical systems moved past the state to kick off September bringing us a 3 day total of 1.92" (SEPT. 1-2-3). After a few days of recovery a even stronger low pressure system swept past the state. This storm system brought 2.71" of rain on September 7th marking a record rainfall for the date. Adding another 0.24" on the 8th brought the 2 day rainfall total to 2.95". By that time, the months rain total added up to 4.93". It doesn't stop there.
We picked up 0.05" on the 14th and then 0.42" on the 17th. This finally brings the current months total to 5.40" so far. This is 2.28" above the normal months avg of 3.12". As of 3pm this afternoon, the deficit is down to 3.49" for the year. We should be sitting at 31.38" for the year but so far the years total is at 27.89". This continues to keep us in a moderate drought until we get another heavy soaker.

3 Day Detailed Forecast
We got a mixture of some sunshine and clouds this afternoon. This didn't bump our temps up higher than yesterdays official high of 68°. Even under a southerly air flow. The official high for today was once again 68° after a morning low of 51°. This marks the 7th straight day below normal. Tonight, the clouds will pick up in coverage with lows down in the mid-to-low 50s. It will be a semi-mild night but normal. The average low is 54°.
Tomorrow, the clouds will rule the day. There will be the possibility of some morning showers but the bulk of tomorrows rain will be closer to the afternoon hours. Cold Front #1 will sweep past the state tomorrow as well. We are expecting quite a bit of rain with most averaging about a half inch to three quarters of an inch. Can't rule out a few pockets of 1" totals. This mostly will keep temperatures down in the afternoon. How far temps get will really be dependent on when rain arrives. I don't think we'll make it to the 70s or it'll be a struggle. I am going with a high anywhere between 65°-68°. From past experiences, the rainy days tend to lean more towards lower temperature observations than that forecasted. In this case, most local weather stations are forecasting 70.
For Example, back on August 17th the forecasted high was 89°. The official high was 82° under cloudy skies and 0.78" of rain. Then again, on September 1st. The forecasted high was 90°. Remnants of Isaac brought us 0.38" that day with a much lower official high of 82°. Finally, earlier this week on Monday, the forecasted high was 78°. Cloud cover kept temps down and we picked up 0.42" of rain leading to a official high of 72°. This seems to be a recent trend.
On Saturday, it will be a drier day, we'll be under a mixture of some clouds and sunshine. The winds will pick up and it will be another day with highs in the mid 60s.

Temperatures Fall as Fall Begins

Another Cold Front will ride the northwest flow of the jet stream and enter Indiana on Saturday Evening. This will drive Sunday Morning lows into the low 40s again. Some areas will drop into the 30s once again. Temperatures are higher here in the city due to the "Heat Island Effect". With the heavy population and other environmental factors, this keeps our temps up about 5°.
This potent cold front could keep temps from topping the 60s on Sunday. The average high for Sunday is 75°. Most will be anywhere from 15° to as much as 20° below normal. This will also drive Monday morning lows into the upper 30s here in the city. Some areas away from the city could flirt with freeze levels near 32-33°. Much of the state can expect some Monday Morning Frost.
Temperatures will be up and down over the next month. There will be warm days, there will be cool nights. This is a typical pattern during this time of year as we transition from summer to fall. We only have one more full day of summer and it ends on a wet note. Astronomical Fall begins this Saturday Morning.


Here's a another look at my (updated) list of "Chilling" Facts:

• Last Subzero Low-February 10, 2011 (-1°)
• Last Single Digit Low-February 9, 2011 (7°)
• Last low temp in teens-February 13, 2012 (18°)
• Last low temp in 20s-April 11, 2012 (29°)
• Last low temp in 30s-April 27, 2012 (35°)
• Last low temp in 40s-September 19, 2012 (42°)
• Last high temp in the 50s-April 28, 2012 (52°)
• Last high temp in the 40s-March 9, 2012 (45°)
• Last high temp in the 30s-March 3, 2012 (38°)
• Last high temp in the 20s-February 11, 2012 (25°)
• Last high temp in the teens-February 13, 2012 (19°)
• Last single digit high-February 15, 2009 (7°)
• Last Subzero High-January 18, 1994 (-4°)
• Earliest First Freeze-September 30, 1899 (30°) & 1993 (33°)
• Latest First Freeze 32° or lower-November 8, 1956
• Latest First Hard Freeze 28° or lower-December 3, 2004
• Avg First Frost-October 7 (36° or lower)
• Avg First Freeze-October 16(32° or lower)
• Avg First Hard Freeze-October 30(28° or lower)
• Last years First Freeze-October 30, 2011 (31°:)
• Last years First Hard Freeze-November 11, 2011 (27°)
• Avg First Snowfall-November 19 (0.01 or higher)
• Earliest First Snowfall (0.01 or higher)-October 18, 1989
• Last years First Snowfall (0.01 or higher)-November 29, 2011 (0.2")

***7 Day Extended Forecast***

	Fall Begins 10:49AM	Colts vs Jaguars @ 1PM
SEPT. 21	SEPT. 22	SEPT. 23	SEPT. 24	SEPT. 25	SEPT. 26	SEPT. 27
FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY
AM-Partly Cloudy	Mixed Sun	Mostly	Mixed Sun	Scattered	Scattered	AM-T'Storms
PM-Showers	& Clouds	Sunny	& Clouds	T'Storms	T'Storms	PM-Sunny
	CHILLY	NIGHTS	AM FROST?	WARMER
67	65	59	65	74	72	75
54                52	43	39	46	54	55	55

SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE DATA (Sept. 1-19)
Actual Avg High---77.7°. This is 0.3° below the normal 78°.
Actutal Avg Low---59.7°. This is 3.7° above the normal 56°.
Actual Avg Temp---68.7°. This is 1.2° above the normal 67°.

SEPTEMBER 2012 PRECIPITATION DATA**
Precip Since Sept 1----5.40". This is +2.28" from normal.
Precip Since Aug. 1----11.91". This is +5.66" from normal.
Precip Since Jul. 1----12.74". This is +1.94" from normal.
Precip Since Jan. 1----27.89". This is -3.49" from normal.
**-The information in this section is current as of 08:00PM on September 20th.