Saturday, September 29, 2012

Dry Now, Rain Chances Return Later

Today we'll be under a mixture of some clouds and sunshine. Highs will continue to stay into the upper 60s, low 70s for the next few days. Rain chances return Monday Night into Tuesday. Temperatures will warm up to the mid to upper 70s for Wednesday and Thursday before the pattern changes to much cooler air next weekend.
SEPTEMBER 2012
This month will be remembered for its rain and cool temperatures. We started off wet, and mild. We picked nearly 2" of rain from what was left of Hurricane Issac on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. We had a 5 day average high temperature of nearly 85° for September 3-7. The two highest temperatures of the month occured during the first week, 88° on the 4th and 87° on the 6th. On the 7th, Indianapolis picked up 2.71" of rain. This marked a record for the date. This beat the previous record of 1.19" set back in 1942. This put the months total rainfall at 4.69" ALL in the first seven days of the month. This first week was the 4th wettest start to a September in 9 years.
A more drier pattern started on the 9th lasting through the 16th. During these 8 days, we only picked up 0.05" before picking up 0.42" on the 17th. A BIG dip in the jet stream ushered in some very chilly air that brought us our first 60° high and 40° low of the season on the 17th. The coolest day of the month was on the 23rd when we had our lowest high of 63° and coolest low of 39°. These are the coolest temperatures the city has seen since late spring (April-May-June). Only 12 days (43%) this month have been above normal, while 16 days (57%) have been below normal. 16 out the past 21 days have been below normal. Here's the observations for the month:
Sept 1--82/75/0.38" <---------Remnants from Hurricane Isaac
Sept 2--77/72/1.53" <---------Remnants from Hurricane Isaac
Sept 3--82/71/0.01" <---------Remnants from Hurricane Isaac
Sept 4--88/72/Trace Amounts
Sept 5--83/66/0.06"
Sept 6--87/64/NONE
Sept 7--83/66/2.71" <--------Record Rainfall for the Date. Previous Record 1.19" set in 1942.
Sept 8--73/56/0.24"
Sept 9--75/54/NONE
Sept 10-76/52/NONE
Sept 11-78/56/NONE
Sept 12-83/57/NONE
Sept 13-81/66/NONE
Sept 14-70/56/0.05"
Sept 15-74/50/NONE
Sept 16-78/54/NONE
Sept 17-72/57/0.42"
Sept 18-66/48/Trace Amounts
Sept 19-68/42/NONE
Sept 20-68/51/NONE
Sept 21-67/48/1.32"
Sept 22-63/43/NONE <-------Coolest High since June 1 (61°)
Sept 23-63/39/NONE <-------Coolest Low since April 27 (35°)
Sept 24-67/39/NONE
Sept 25-66/53/0.10"
Sept 26-72/63/0.10"
Sept 27-72/57/0.81"
Sept 28-72/57/Trace Amounts
The avg high for the month is 74.5° and the avg low is 56.6°. The avg monthly temperature for this Setember so far is 65.5°. The avg monthly temp should normally be 69.9° so we will certainly finish the month below normal. If you take you look back every month this year has finished above normal. In fact, you'll have to go back to last September when the month finished below normal. This will mean now, 3 out of the past 22 months will have finished below normal.
In terms of precipitation, the months tally is up to 7.73". Very unlikely we"ll add any more. We average 3.12" during this month so looks like we finish 4.61" above normal.
The years rainfall total is up to 30.22". This is still 2.02" behind the normal 32.24". This still keeps us in a moderate drought and we look to stay dry for the next few days. The average rainfall from Today through Tuesday is 0.53". Tuesdays is the cutoff date for next weeks drought analysis. That map will be released on Thursday at 8:30am. By then our years deficit could be up to 2.44" and they may potentially keep us in that moderate drought category. Here's the most recent map below:


I've updated the latest deficit chart below

Location Year to Date Precipitation
(through Sept. 28)
Departure from Average Precip since Sept 1 Departure from Average
Indianapolis 30.22 -  2.02 7.73 +4.82
Evansville 25.57 -  8.19 7.60 +4.76
Lafayette 21.34 -  6.68 3.93 +1.46
Terre Haute 21.73 -12.75 4.19 +0.99
Muncie 24.56 -  6.13 5.64 +2.86
Bloomington 23.68 -12.59 7.38 +4.30
Shelbyville 22.67 -10.55 5.95 +3.01
Ft. Wayne 22.47 -  6.99 3.61 +0.99
South Bend 26.61 -  1.98 2.03 -1.29
Indy - Eagle Creek 29.26 -  1.46 7.13 +5.06
NOTE: Precipitation not available on some days since January 1 in Lafeyette, Terre Haute, and Bloomington.



UPCOMING...
The Full Harvest Moon comes out tonight. Some may have gotten a very small glimpse at it this morning. Its generally the first full moon after the autumnal equinox. In some years it can occur in October but in others, as early as the day of the autumnal equinox. Its then called "Super Harvest Moon". The Harvest Moon is supposedly bigger and even brighter than other full moons.The brain actually perceives it to be bigger and reddish in color since this is a low hanging moon. This is a good time for farmers to work late on thir harvesting chores. One interesting fact, there are some cultures that require those who's birthday is around the Harvest Moon to provide a feast for the community. The next full moon is October 29th. This one is the full Hunter's Moon.




The warm up that I told you about 2 weeks ago has almost disappeared. There is a low pressure system to the South that will move into the state Monday Night.


This will bring us rain chances for the first few days of October. The chances start Monday Night, continue on Tuesday, and end Wednesday Morning. I think these will virtually be scattered showers. Tuesday looks to be the best chance for showers especially in the morning and afternoon hours. These will keep temps lower than originally thought. If these showers get out a little earlier, may need to bump Wednesday high up a few degrees from the low 70s now to mid 70s then. We'll dry out for Thursday with temps pushing the upper 70s by a BIG cool down is coming our way. We could see our first 50° high for the seaason. Also, we'll be flirting with freezing temps on Next Monday Morning. We'll update any changes as the day gets closer.

***10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK***


SEPT. 29 SEPT. 30 OCT. 1 OCT. 2 OCT. 3 OCT. 4 OCT. 5 OCT. 6 OCT. 7 OCT. 9
TODAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY

Mix of

Mostly

Partly

Partly

AM-Rain

Mix of Sun

Partly

Mostly

Sunny

Mostly
Clouds & Sunny Sunny Cloudy w/ PM-Sun & Clouds Sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny
Sunshine PM-Rain? Chance of Rain? Chance of Rain? COOLER WEATHER PATTERN
71 69 69 68 72 77 73 60 57 58
50                50 49 50 50 55 54 42 37 34 36





OCTOBER 2012
I might not have another blog up tomorrow, so I'd like to go over some averages and things to expect in October.
The average high temperature decreases from 71° on the 1st to 60° on the 31st.
The average low temperature decrease from 50° on the 1st to 41° on the 31st
The average daily temperature decreases from 60° on the 1st to 50° on the 31st
The average monthly temperature is 55°
The average months precipitation is 3.12"
The average months snowfall is 0.40"
The sun continues to rise later from 7:41 AM on the 1st to 8:13 AM on the 31st
The sun continues to set earlier from 7.26 PM on the 1st to 6.43PM on the 31st
Daylight hours decrease a total of 1hr 14 mins 47 secs
October is generally ranked as the 4th Most Sunniest Month of the Year
During this month the average first frost is October 7 (36° or lower)
During this month the average first freeze is October 16 (32° or lower)
During this month the average first hard freeze is October 30 (28° or lower)
During this month in Indiana History, we recorded the earliest first snowfall day on record on October 18, 1989 (0.20"). Then the day after a record 9.30" of snow fell in Indianapolis.
Highest High Temperature on Record: 91° on October 8, 2007
Lowest Low Temperature on Record: 20° on October 20, 1981
Last year, we had our first frost on the 21st, and first freeze on the 30th. We finished with a average high of 66°, average low of 45°, and average monthly temperature of 55.7°. The total precipitation for the month was 2.82". October 2011 finished with above normal temperatures (barely) but below normal precipitation. 13 days (42%) were below normal while 15 days (48%) were above normal. There were 3 days (10%) with an average daily temperature at normal values.
Here's the latest October Outlooks issued from the Climate Prediction Center. They are calling for Above Normal Temperatures but Below Normal Precipitation.

No comments:

Post a Comment