Expect about the same for tomorrow (maybe a degree or two cooler) before a cold front comes through Monday evening which could bring the city the next rain chance. Whats interesting is, a few weeks ago models were showing a massive storm system for this week but that has now weakened dramatically. This could have had the potential to bring us heavy snow or heavy snow somewhere in the Central or Eastern U.S. This system didn't pan out but something is still there. Its just not much to make a ruckus about now.
The cold front that will pass through the state Monday evening will not only bring us some rain chances but maybe some snow or a light wintry mix. If your looking for huge accumulations this really isn't the event for that. In fact, a low that could bring up those chances looks to pass South which may impact Southern Indiana down towards Kentucky bypassing Northern and Central Indiana. Also, this system has sped up as well so really not a lot of time for this to become a big event either. Whatever we can squeeze out should only cause minor traffic issues for Tuesday morning. I think this system should get out well before sunrise. Could have some lingering clouds around but I think we'll also get some peaks of sunshine as well.
The cold front will have a negative impact on Tuesday Afternoon temps. We'll fail to get out of the 30s. We should be in the mid to upper 30s. After that, we'll get into a short-term quiet weather pattern. Not a lot of rain chances in the next 5 days. Also, a ridge may set up which could warm our temperatures up. Don't be fooled though, this will not be a HUGE warm up. We'll only get back up to the low to maybe mid 50s. Thats about it.
Next weekend, it looks like those rain chances will return along with the milder temperatures. I put a chance for rain on Friday in my 7 day at the end of the blog. Saturday looks cloudy and mostly dry with only a small weak chance for a pop shower. Probably the best day of the weekend for outdoor plans. More rain chances come in on Next Sunday and maybe even Monday too. Mild weather looks to hold on early next week.
From where we stand at now this is the 2nd driest November so far in the past 10 years and the driest since 2009 in Indianapolis. Since we picked up 0.26" of rain between the 20th and 23rd, this now bumps us out of the list as being one of the top 10 driest Novembers on Record. The average precipitation during the month of November is 3.70". Six out of the past 10 Novembers have finished with below normal precipitation.
2011-4.87"
2010-4.46"
2009-1.16"
2008-1.97"
2007-1.85"
2006-4.25"
2005-3.64"
2004-5.11"
2003-3.65"
2002-2.88"
FULL MOON
The full moon comes out on Wednesday, November 28th. This is known as the "Full Beaver Moon" or "Frost Moon". This is the time for hunters to set out traps before the water freezes over. Since this is the time of the year beavers are out gathering up their supply and preparing for the winter, hunter's utilize this time to hunt for the beavers to ensure they have fur to keep them warm for the cold season ahead.
Next month's moon comes out on Friday, December 28th. This is called the "Full Cold Moon".
AVERAGE DECEMBER CLIMATE NOTES
During the month of December the average high decreases from 44° on the 1st to 36&3176; on the 31st, while the average low decreases from 29° on the 1st to 21° on the 31st. We average 3.17" of rain or frozen precipitation and the average snowfall is 6.90".
Also, from December 1st-20th we lose about 12 minutes of daylight. The Winter Solstice occurs on December 21st. We don't gain or lose any daylight time on this day but afterwards we begin to gain daylight. From December 22nd-December 31st, we gain 3 mins of daylight. So, overall, we really only lose 9 minutes of daylight. I will note through the entire month the sun will continue to rise later throughout the ENTIRE month but the sun will begin to set later starting December 13th.
On the 1st the sun rises at 7:47AM and sets at 5:20PM with the day lasting 9 hours 33 minutes and 20 seconds.
On the 31st the sun rises at 8:06AM and sets at 5:30PM with the day lasting 9 hours 24 minutes and 29 seconds.
UPCOMING....
There are some conflicting issues with the weather outlook. This is the reason why I don't believe in long range seasonal forecasting. A few weeks ago it looks as if a colder and wetter (snowier) than normal season would shape up. What leads to a cold and stormy winter? There are a long list of factors that come into play.
Meteorologists look at two weather indices called the Artic Oscillation (A0) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both of these need to be negative. A negative AO readings simply means COLD AIR. A negative NAO reading simply means STORMY or ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. Also, we look for a Greenland Block. This also leads to those negative NAO readings. I'll put it like this, when there is high pressure in the upper atmosphere near Greenland, the jet stream over North America typically buckles downs southward across the eastern half of the United States. This process pulls down cold air and we get theses storms to spin up.
When you get these storms to spin up, you can get the snowfall. When you get snowfall on the ground, this helps keep the temperatures down and you can easily have a winter with above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures. The snow on the ground, reflects the sun's rays and doesn't retain heat very well. Whereas, when there is no snow on the ground, the sun radiates the pavements allowing warmer temperatures. We can easily compare this to last winter. The snowpack was down, therefore, we had a mild winter. We recorded atleast 1 day in December, January, and February with a temperature 60° or above and we didn't record a one day with a low temperature in the single digits.
Let's take a look back at the 2010-2011 winter season. On November 30th, 2010, 35% of the nation was covered in snow. In Indianapolis, we headed into a snowy December that finished with a total 16.60". Thats 10" above normal. Also, I said snow keeps temperatures down. We recorded 6 days with lows in the single digits and finished 6° below normal for the month. This in turn, also plays a role into the next months temperatures as well. We had a subzero temperature reading on January 21, 2011 and later on February 10, 2011. January 2011 finished nearly 3° below normal. How did snow measure up? We picked up 11.80" of snow in January and 7.50" in February. Well how bout that?
With all that being said, today the snowpack is at 13%. Thats up 3% from 10% a year ago but down 23% from 36% two years ago. Could we be headed towards a winter like last season? Possibly. We can't base that off of snowpack alone though. AO and NAO are both forecasted to be negative next month. This means cold and stormy (or snowy) weather pattern. Isn't this what winter should all be about anyways?
I've taken a look back over the past 10 years. We picked up anywhere from 1"-14" of snow. Half of the Decembers were well below 10" and the other half were near 10" and above. Its hard to tell where December will go. Also, i've looked through the top ten list of least snowiest Decembers. The latest one in the list is 1991. During that month only 0.20" of snow fell (same as this current month now). Since then, we have NOT had a December with 0.40" of snow or less. By the way, 1889 holds the record for the only December without snow while 1973 holds the record for the most snowiest December on Record with 27.5". The years 2000 and 2010 holds the record for the most snowiest December in 21st century both with 16.60" of snow.
I can't tell you what December holds but if I had to take a guess, given low snowpack but negative AO/NAO readings for next month I am forecasting below to near normal Precipitation and snowfall with a equal chance of above, below, or near normal temperatures. The first few days of the month will be warm from December 1st-5th or 6th. December 6th or 7th temperatures looks to cool back down again. Standby for further weather updates.
| NOV. 26 | NOV. 27 | NOV. 28 | NOV. 29 | NOV. 30 | DEC. 1 | DEC. 2 |
| MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY | SATURDAY | SUNDAY |
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| PM SHOWERS | PARTLY SUNNY | SUNNY | PARTLY SUNNY | CLOUDY RAIN? |
PARTLY CLOUDY | CLOUDY RAIN? |
| AM WINTRY MIX | MILDER | WINDY | ||||
| 43 | 37 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 51 | 50 |
| 27 | 26 | 24 | 28 | 30 | 35 | 36 |
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