Friday, November 30, 2012

Weekend Warm Up Arrives

Good Evening! The month of November is coming to a close. We end the month with weather that was pretty much the same as we opened it, just a tad few degrees warmer. The sunshine continued on today with afternoon temperature observations into the upper 50s. Despite the warm open and warm ending, this month will finish with below normal temperatures. The third straight month below normal. Also, temperatures aren't the only thing below normal this month. We've had a rather dry month as well. This is the second driest November in the past 10 years and the 7th November in the past 10 years to finish with below normal precipitation. More Details below.

The Image on left is available courtesy of the FOX 59 Weather Team in Indianapols, Indiana.
November 2012
Weather observations this month:
High/Low/Rainfall/Snowfall
November 1st-54/29/None/None<-----First day w/ low temp in 20s since April 11th.
November 2nd-51/33/None/None
November 3rd-41/33/0.08"/Trace
November 4th-45/30/None/None
November 5th-46/25/None/None<-----Coldest Morning Since March 4th.
November 6th-49/28/0.01"/None
November 7th-50/35/0.07"/None
November 8th-48/27/None/None
November 9th-63/32/None/None
November 10th-72/47/None/None<----Warmest day of Month since October 25th.
November 11th-67/53/0.01"/None
November 12th-57/29/0.90"/0.20"<-----First measurable snowfall since March 5th.
November 13th-40/25/None/None<----Coolest Day since March 4th.
November 14th-41/27/None/None
November 15th-46/27/None/None
November 16th-51/26/None/None
November 17th-55/28/None/None
November 18th-58/32/None/None
November 19th-58/37/Trace/None
November 20th-57/46/0.01/None
November 21st-61/37/NONE/None
November 22nd-63/37/0.02/None<-----Warmest Thanksgiving since 1981.
November 23rd-53/28/0.23/None
November 24th-32/23/None/None<-----Coldest Morning since February 26th. Coldest Afternoon (under 35°)since February 11th.
November 25th-46/26/None/None
November 26th-49/30/Trace/Trace
November 27th-40/26/Trace/Trace
November 28th-43/23/None/None
November 29th-49/26/None/None
November 30th-58/38/None/None
Nov. Summary-1543/943/1.33"/0.20"
Avg High-51.4° Avg Low-31.4° Avg Monthly temp 41.4° Month is running 2.3° below normal.
The current month to date (total) precipitation of 1.33" is 2.37" below normal.
The current month to date (total) snowfall of 0.20" is 0.50" below normal.
17 out of 30 (57%) days this month have been below normal.
We've lost about a hour of daylight this month.
HIGHS
This month we've had 1 day with a high temperature in the 70s, 4 in the 60s, 11 in the 50s, 13 in the 40s, and 1 day with a high in the 30s.
The warmest high temperature of 72° was recorded on the 10th.
The coolest high temperature of 32° was recorded on the 24th.
The actual average high temperature of 51.4° this month was near normal.

LOWS
This month we've had 16 days with a low temperature in the 20s, 11 in the 30s, 2 in the 40s, and 1 day in the 50s.
The coolest low temperature of 23° were recorded on both the 24th and 28th.
The warmest low temperature of 53° was recorded on the 11th.
The actual average low temperature of 31.4° this month was 3.7° below the normal average low temperature of 35.1°.

Meteorological Fall(SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER)
Today marks the end of meteorological fall and its been a chilly one. We've had some of our coldest days since March this month. Out of the past 91 days (including today), since September 1st, 55 days have been below normal, 35 days have been above normal, and 1 day was normal. Over 60% of the seasons days has been below normal.
HIGHS
So far we've had 8 days with highs in the 80s, 22 days in the 70s, 23 days in the 60s, 22 days in the 50s, 15 days in the 40s, and 1 day in the 30s.
Our last 80° day was on September 13th (81°)
Our last 70° day was on November 10th (72°)
Our last 60° day was on November 22nd (63°)
Our first 60° day was on September 18th (66°)
Our first 50° day was on October 6th (53°)
Our last 50° day was on November 30th (5?°)
Our first 40° day was on October 30th (42°)
Our last 40° day was on November 29th (49°)
The highest high temperature is 88° (September 4th) and the lowest high temperature is 32° (November 24th).
The average high for this season is 62.4°. This finishes over 2.6° below normal.
LOWS
So we've had 4 days with lows in the 70s, 5 days in the 60s, 25 days in the 50s, 16 days in the 40s, 25 days in the 30s, and 16 days in the 20s.
Our last 70° low was on September 4th (72°)
Our last 60° low was on September 26th (63°)
Our last 50° low was on November 11th (53°)
Our first 40° low was on September 18th (48°)
Our last 40° low was on November 20th (46°)
Our first 30° low was on September 23rd (39°)
Our last 30° low was on November 30th (3?°)
Our first 20° low was on November 1st (29°)
Our last 20° low was on November 29th (26°)
The lowest low temperature is 23° (November 24th & 28th) and the highest low temperature is 75 ° (September 1st).
The average low for this season is 43.8°. This is nearly 1.5° below normal.
We picked up 12.93" of rain since September 1st, which is 2.99" above normal. Also, we've picked up 0.20" of snow. The normal value in the fall months is 1.10". We are running 0.90" below normal for the season.


Today not only marks the end of meteorological fall and the end of November but this is also the end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. This was a busy year! Take a look at this (VERY LONG) infographic from Accuweather
The Content in this infographic was contributed by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity and AccuWeather.com Producer Grace Muller. The graphic was produced by AccuWeather.com Graphic Artist Keith Becker.



THIS WEEKEND
As the cold eases back, the weekend will be much warmer with temperatures 10°-15° above normal. We should have highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. We'll have one of the warmest opens to December in 17 years, since 1995 (62°). Will be the 18th time in 50 years, a December will open at 50° or higher. The most recent was back in 2009 with 54°.
We'll have some morning sunshine Saturday but the clouds will thicken up as the day progresses. In fact, we'll have a chance for some spotty showers Saturday afternoon and throughout parts of Sunday too. Saturday looks to be the better of the two to get out and get some holiday shopping done. Also, a best day to put up those outdoor christmas decorations. Weather Conditions Sunday won't be the prettiest but it won't be the ugliest either. Will be a rather cloudy day, so I wouldn't expect a whole lot of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK
Warmer temperatures will continue for Monday, where temperatures look to push mid tp possibly even the upper 60s. Thats 20° above normal. I don't think we'll break the record but we'll still make a run at it. The record high temperature for Monday is 69° set back in 1982. The winds will also pick up too this and more rain chances stick around. We are not looking at washouts here for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In fact, some may not see a drop. Projected Precipitation Totals are pretty low so if anything does fall, it won't be much at all. Rain Chances increase as we go into Tuesday, all thanks to a morning cold front. Could see temperatures fall throughout the day too. We'll start the day in about the mid 50s then drop to the mid to upper 40s for Tuesday Afternoon. We aren't looking a big cool down. In fact, the drop in temperatures will only put as at near normal values in the low to mid 40s for Wednesday. Cloud deck could remain unbroken for Wednesday but I'm optimistic we might squeeze out a little sunshine. I think we'll have a better shot at seeing more sun for Thursday with temperatures approaching the 50° mark. Rain chances return for Friday with temperatures once again around the 50° mark.

NEXT WEEKEND
Computer model runs have been back and forth over the past few days. The bulk of the model runs indicate a weekend snow storm system. Not a big one but one worth mentioning. The latest run per GFS & European Models indicate it will get cold and we will get some snow to fall. How much? Its really impossible to tell at this distance. This may not even verify but "IF" it does, then some may get a dusting while others could get a few inches. Location cannot also be determined at this distance. Sorry, I can't help you out on that department. As for temperatures, it will only cool us back to some of our chilly days we've already seen this season. Will monitor and bring you the latest in the coming days. Standby for further updates.

UPCOMING....
As we head into the month of December, here are a few things you should know.
(1) The average high decreases from 44° on the 1st to 36° on the 31st, while the average low decreases from 29° on the 1st to 21° on the 31st.
(2) We average 3.17" of rain or frozen precipitation and the average snowfall is 6.90"
. (3) From December 1st-20th we lose about 12 minutes of daylight. The Winter Solstice occurs on December 21st. We don't gain or lose any daylight time on this day but afterwards we begin to gain daylight. From December 22nd-December 31st, we gain 3 mins of daylight. So, overall, we really only lose 9 minutes of daylight. I will note through the entire month the sun will continue to rise later throughout the ENTIRE month but the sun will begin to set later starting December 13th.
On the 1st the sun rises at 7:47AM and sets at 5:20PM with the day lasting 9 hours 33 minutes and 20 seconds.
On the 31st the sun rises at 8:06AM and sets at 5:30PM with the day lasting 9 hours 24 minutes and 29 seconds.

There are conflicting issues with the climatic outlook for December. With models flip flopping back and forth, we may have a problem. That means long range forecast models cannot be trusted meaning we can't really tell what the weather will be like. For now, I'll call it like i see it. Here's the headlines:
-We'll open the month warm with temperatures running 10°-20° warmer than normal.
-Mid month cool down comes in. This will bring temperatures back more towards the normal values.
-On or around Christmas, temperatures could fall back below normal and maybe stir up a snow storm. Could we be looking at a White Chrismas?
Again, not a lot of trust in the long range at the moment but I thought I would share what I see with you at the moment. Doesn't mean this will all play out the way its laid out now.
There will be a lot of ups and downs next month and it'll be a mix of warm and cool days. In the end, I think we'll finish with near normal temperatues. As for snowfall, its unpredictable. Will continue to monitor. Standby for further updates.


***7 Day Forecast***

DEC. 1 DEC. 2 DEC. 3 DEC. 4 DEC. 5 DEC. 6 DEC. 7
SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
AM SUN
PM CLOUDS
CLOUDY
RAIN?
PM
T'STORMS?
SHOWERS CLOUDY
SOME SUN
PARTLY
CLOUDY
CLOUDY
RAIN?
MILD  WEEKEND 20+° ABOVE
NORMAL
FALLING
TEMPS
COOLER
58 61 65 55↓ 45 48 49
49 52 55 33 30 38 29

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