Tonight
It will be cold and frosty under clear skies. Could see some fog develop. Low 33.
This Weekend
The average high for Saturday is again 52 and 35 for the low.
The average high for Sunday is 51 and 34 for the low.
This weekend temperatures will be above normal normal and the sun will continue to shine on. Forecasting a high of 54 for Saturday and 57 for Sunday. Both Saturday and Sunday Nights will be above freezing, a few degrees. Lows should be in mid 30s.
Summer is long gone but some around the state are still trying to catch up on the rainfall that was missed during part of May, all of June , and most of July. The latest drought analysis came out yesterday. I have some comparisons to make. First off, I want to show you a monthly look at the drought starting mid June to mid month now.
In the first row, June is on your left, July in the center, August on the right.
In the second row, September is on your left, October in the center, and November (now) is on the right.
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Here's the breakdown of the rainfall this year by month. You can follow the images above but the months you see in this chart. You can see how we began the deficit then quickly rebounded.
| Month | Monthly Precip | Monthly Deficit | Precip Since JAN 1 | Yearly Deficit |
| JAN | 3.48" | +0.82" | 3.48" | +0.82" |
| FEB | 1.38" | -0.94" | 4.86" | -0.12" |
| MAR | 4.14" | +0.58" | 9.00" | +0.46" |
| APR | 3.36" | -0.45" | 12.36" | +0.01" |
| MAY | 2.70" | -2.35" | 15.06" | -2.34" |
| JUN | 0.09" | -4.16" | 15.15" | -6.50" |
| JUL | 0.83" | -3.72" | 15.98" | -10.22" |
| AUG | 6.51" | +3.38" | 22.49" | -6.84" |
| SEPT | 7.73" | +4.61" | 30.22" | -2.23" |
| OCT | 3.87" | +0.75" | 34.09" | -1.48" |
| NOV 1-15 | 1.07" | -0.72" | 35.16" | -2.20" |
So far this is the driest month since July. As you can see we are still a little above 2" below normal in rainfall for the year and nearly three quarters of an inch below normal for the month. Here's a look at your latest drought analysis. As you can see there was only a very little change from last week due to the lack of rain this month.
Things are much worse elsewhere. Enough to still keep 6% of the state in a drought. There are 7 counties still in a moderate drought located in the far extreme Northeastern part of the state. They include De Kalb, LaGrange, Noble, and Steuben Counties along with parts of Elkhart, Kosciusko and Whitley County.
Below is a table of a few major cities in the state and breakdown of their rainfall. All the cities in this table are in the red for this month. Terre Haute and South Bend are the two cities still below normal in rainfall since September 1. They are 1.50"-1.80" below normal. Everyone else is anywhere from a little over a quarter of inch up to a little over five and half inches above normal. For the year, everyone is below normal. Bloomington, Shelbyville, and Terre Haute still have it the worst for the year. They are running 12"-15" below normal since January 1st. There is some precipitation data missing for Terre Haute and Shelbyville but regardless they still have a lot of rain to catch up. How good are those chances? Read on.
| Location | Year to Date Precipitation (through Nov. 15) |
Departure from Average | Precip since Sept 1 | Departure from Average | Precip since Nov 1 | Departure from Average |
| Indianapolis | 35.16 | - 2.20 | 12.67 | +4.64 | 1.07 | -0.72 |
| Evansville | 29.55 | - 9.70 | 11.58 | +3.25 | 1.08 | -0.95 |
| Lafayette | 27.58 | - 4.97 | 10.17 | +3.17 | 0.68 | -0.77 |
| Terre Haute | 24.94 | -15.24 | 7.40 | -1.50 | 0.32 | -1.59 |
| Muncie | 30.42 | - 5.03 | 11.50 | +3.96 | 0.77 | -0.89 |
| Bloomington | 28.59 | -13.50 | 12.29 | +3.39 | 1.12 | -0.90 |
| Shelbyville | 25.64 | -12.77 | 8.92 | +0.79 | 0.56 | -1.29 |
| Ft. Wayne | 26.31 | - 7.65 | 7.45 | +0.33 | 0.53 | -0.95 |
| South Bend | 31.25 | - 2.49 | 6.67 | -1.80 | 0.25 | -1.37 |
| Indy - Eagle Creek | 34.95 | - 0.89 | 12.82 | +5.63 | 1.11 | -0.72 |
The dry pattern will continue this month and its likely we will finish below normal. For those who are abnormally dry, those conditions will continue to persist. By the way, since the summer, all but one county has either lifted their burn ban or one was never implemented one. To this day, Martin County is the only county that still remains under a burn ban. Martin County is located in parts of Loogootee, Indiana. This is southwest of Bedford and northeast of Evansville.
This is the driest month so far in the past 10 years and driest since 2009 in Indianapolis. So far this ranked as the 7th driest November on Record. The average precipitation during the month of November is 3.70". Six out of the past 10 Novembers have finished with below normal precipitation.
2011-4.87"
2010-4.46"
2009-1.16"
2008-1.97"
2007-1.85"
2006-4.25"
2005-3.64"
2004-5.11"
2003-3.65"
2002-2.88"
November 2012
Quick Recap. Here's a look at the weather observations this month.
High/Low/Rainfall/Snowfall
November 1st-54/29/None/None<-----First day w/ low temp in 20s since April 11th.
November 2nd-51/33/None/None
November 3rd-41/33/0.08"/Trace
November 4th-45/30/None/None
November 5th-46/25/None/None<-----Coldest Morning Since March 4th.
November 6th-49/28/0.01"/None
November 7th-50/35/0.07"/None
November 8th-48/27/None/None
November 9th-63/32/None/None
November 10th-72/47/None/None<----Warmest day of Month since October 25th.
November 11th-67/53/0.01"/None
November 12th-57/29/0.90"/0.20"<-----First measurable snowfall since March 5th.
November 13th-40/25/None/None<----Coolest Day since March 4th.
November 14th-41/27/None/None
November 15th-46/27/None/None
Nov. Summary-770/480/1.07"/0.20"
Avg High-51.3° Avg low-32° Avg Monthly temp 41.7° Month is running 5.3° below normal.
The current month to date (total) precipitation of 1.07" is 0.72" below normal.
The current month to date (total) snowfall of 0.20" is 0.40" below normal.
12 out of 15 (80%) days this month have been below normal.
For the second half of the month the average high decreases from 52° on the 16th to 45° on the 30th. The average low decreases from 35° on the 16th to 29° on the 30th. Also, so far we've lost about a half an hour of daylight so far this month, we'll lose close to another half by months end. Daylight hours will continue to decrease until the winter solstice. We don't lose any daylight on December 21st and then we slowly began to start gaining daylight back starting on December 22nd.
Meteorological Fall(SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER)
Only 2 weeks left of meteorological fall and its been a chilly one. We've had some of our coldest days since March this month. Out of the past 76 days, since September 1st, 49 days have been below normal, 26 days have been above normal, and 1 day was normal. Nearly 65% of the seasons days has been below normal.
HIGHS
So far we've had 8 days with highs in the 80s, 21 days in the 70s, 19 days in the 60s, 11 days in the 50s, 2 days in the 40s.
Our last 80° day was on September 13th (81°)
Our last 70° day was on November 10th (72°)
Our last 60° day was on November 11th (67°)
Our first 60° day was on September 18th (66°)
Our first 50° day was on October 6th (53°)
Our last 50° day was on November 12th (57°)
Our first 40° day was on October 30 (42°)
Our last 40° day was on November 15th (46°)
The highest high temperature is 88° (September 4th) and the lowest high temperature is 40° (November 13th).
The average high for the season is 62.3°. This is running 3° below normal.
LOWS
So we've had 4 days with lows in the 70s, 5 days in the 60s, 25 days in the 50s, 15 days in the 40s, 19 days in the 30s, and 9 days in the 20s (including this morning).
Our last 70° low was on September 4th (72°)
Our last 60° low was on September 26th (63°)
Our last 50° low was on November 11th (53°)
Our first 40° low was on September 18th (48°)
Our last 40° low was on November 10th (47°)
Our first 30° low was on September 23rd (39°)
Our last 30° low was on November 9th (32°)
Our first 20° low was on November 1st (29°)
Our last 20° low was on November 16th (26°)
The lowest low temperature is 25° (November 5th & 13th) and the highest low temperature is 75 ° (September 1st).
The average low for the season is 46°. This is near normal.
We picked up 12.67" of rain since September 1st, which is 4.64" above normal. Also, we've picked up 0.20" of snow. The normal value in the fall months is 1.10". Currenly, we are running 0.40" of where we should be for this time of the year. We average a half a inch of snow for the remaining days of November.
Next Week
Two jet streams are running across the continent west to east, this is also called a "zonal flow". This is whats keeping our weather quiet. With a weak blockage North, this helps to usher in warmer more milder air from the south. It won't be as potent as last weekend but it will be enough to (1) keep temperatures above normal and (2) keep most of the week sunny. Afternoon high temperatures will warm up and we'll hover around the upper 50s near 60s for ALL of next week. Also, low temperatures will warm up towards the upper 30s to maybe even low 40s. Our high and low temperatures next week will be ABOVE NORMAL.
THANKSGIVING
It only comes once a year and this is the biggest travel day of the year. If your traveling around the area weather conditions will be phenomenal. It will be dry, sunny, and mild too. But if your traveling outside of the area then there is some parts you may want to keep in mind. Below are graphics from Accuweather. Shows were conditions will be poor and which areas you may run into some flight delays if your traveling up above.
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Last year mother nature served us overcast skies with late day sunshine for dessert.
Here's a look at the high temps for the past 5 turkey days
2011-50°
2010-57°
2009-40°
2008-51°
2007-46°
2006-59°
The year 1909 holds the record for warmest Thanksgiving with a temperature of 74°. The coldest thanksgiving morning occured back in 1930 with a temperature of 1°.
The wettest thanksgiving day was actually back in 2010 with 1.45". It was a nasty day that day. We had warm morning and tumbling temps throughout the day. Managed to squeeze out 0.10" of snow as well. But the snow was nothing compared to Thanksgiving 1902 when 2.40" fell that day. That's most for Turkey Day is weather (recordkeeping) history. NWS Indianapolis, IN has a write up if you want more details...Thanksgiving Climatology
Here's a look at the almanac for November 22nd.
The high temperature record is 65° (1973) and the low is -1° (1950).
The average high is 46° and the average low is 30°.
Here's whats on the menu this year
-SUNNY CONDTIONS
-DRY WEATHER
-HIGHS IN 50S/60S
-MORNING LOWS IN 30S/40S
UPCOMING...
The block returns, NAO/AO goes negative, and the weather pattern reverses. This means mild weather pattern fades, temperatures will fall back again, and snow chances return. In fact, since the beginning of the week model runs have indicated a snowstorm to finish the month and latest european weeklies back that up. Amounts? We'll first off locations is unknown but there is a general area of where we can expect this snowstorm. This could bring more of the white stuff here to Indiana. A good image I found was from BAM CHASE TEAM (Twitter Link, Facebook Link). The image below is a overlay of 4 model runs. The area highlighted is the general area being favored for where snowstorm will hit. Can't exactly say how much. It really depends on where it hits. Some could pick up a trace, Indiana may pick up a trace. Other could pick up a half a foot, Indiana could pick up a half of a foot. Who know? Its anybody guess right now but this systems forecast will get firmed up in the day to come. Just playing a waiting game.
2012-2013 Winter Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its latest outlook for winter. A few things to look at here. First off, el nino is neutral (pretty much gone). This is the warming of the pacific waters near the equator. Its likely the southern jet stream (subtropical jet stream) will dip even farther south. We've already had a little taste of the blockage up north (absent last winter but present in 2010-2011 winter season). This looks to materialize for this winter and this could spell disaster. With the North Atlantic Oscillation and Artic Oscillation negative this stirs up cold weather and the development of snow storms. Hey, this is what winter is all about right?
The more snow pack there is the more chance for temperatures to stay down since snow reflects heat. When you don't have snow, the ground is able to retain heat from above allowing temperatures to stay up. Last winter, we had a lack of snow cover therefore the season was mild. Unlike 2010-2011 winter season where we received a lot of snow and very cold temperatures.
At the beginning of the week (November 12th), roughly 32% of the country was covered in snow. This was up from last years 12% and even up from 2010's 16%. Winter is off to an early start folks. With the warm up this week heading into the weekend the snow pack has decreased to 17% and will continue to fall over the next 7 days. This will not last very long though. Colder Air and Snow Chances are expected to return late month. December will likely be wet or snowy and temperatures will be fairly normal, if not, below normal. The latest CPC outlooks are calling for above normal precipitation and a equal chance for above, below, or near normal temperatures. I'm calling for near normal temperatures with near normal snowfall for the entire winter season.
Here's the month to month breakdown of the snowfall:
October: 0.40"
November: 0.70"
December: 6.90"
January: 8.60"
February: 6.50"
March: 2.60"
April: 0.20"
May: Trace
Total: 25.90"
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The leonids peak this weekend but don't expect a very spectacular show they'll only be going at a rate of about 20 meteor showers per hour. They peak two times, which is unusual. The first on Saturday the 17th and Second on Tuesday the 20th. You'll have to look up to the sky to the East for you stargazers. I'm sure you'll get a glimpse here and there as viewing conditions are expected to be good.
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Here's a look at my 7 day forecast. I will note there will be a weak cold front passing through on Tuesday. Could bring showers in but the chance is pretty low I didn't think it was worth putting it in my graphic but worth mentioning. Will likely see more clouds and temperatures only get knocked back a few degrees, nothing huge. ENJOY!
| NOV. 17 | NOV. 18 | NOV. 19 | NOV. 20 | NOV. 21 | NOV. 22 | NOV. 23 |
| SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY |
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| SUNNY | SUNNY | MOSTLY SUNNY | CLOUDS/SUN | MOSTLY SUNNY | MOSTLY SUNNY | CLOUDS/SUN |
| 54 | 57 | 57 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 52 |
| 34 | 37 | 41 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 36 |
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