Monday, December 24, 2012

Post Christmas Snowstorm, Cold Temperatures Continue

The mild december we once knew, its pretty much gone. The season is in sync with its corresponding conditions, winter has arrived both astronomically and visually. Couldn't ask for much better timing than that. Despite a much cooler end, the mild start really stamped itself on this month. After the first 4 days out the month, the average temperature was 20° above normal. Now, 23 days into the month, we averaging 9° per day above normal. With only 8 Days left of the month (including today) we'll still likely finish with above normal temperatures.
Precipitation has been too impressive. We've picked up 1.95" but it is much more than last months 1.33". We should have 2.35" right now for the month. The average precipitation amount for December is 3.17". Last year, we picked up 5.10". For the year, we have yet to go into the positive. With 37.37", our's year's deficit is 4.25" below normal (41.62").
Snowfall numbers have now gone up a little more but we are still more than 3.50" below normal. We've only picked up 2.20" so far. We should have picked up about 6" by now. We'll have an opportunity to make that up several time within the next 2 weeks.

With the change into a snowy pattern now, this has been good enough for the seasons open at Paoli Peaks Ski Resort. Falling snow helped with the snow making efforts there and allowed them to open up on Sunday, December 23rd. More snow is on the way so this will help keep it open for the season. Today, they'll be open from 9AM-4PM. They will be CLOSED on Christmas Day but re-open back on December 26th from 9AM-10PM. Here's a list of the normal hours of operation (there may be special hours of operation particularly during holiday, so check with them before you go);
Monday-Friday: Open 10AM-9PM (Friday extended hours til 3AM)
Saturday: Open 9AM-3AM
Sunday: Open 9AM-9PM
New Year's Eve: Open 9AM-2AM
New Year's Day: Open 9AM-10PM
Address: Paoli Peaks | 2798 West County Road 25 South | Paoli, Indiana 47454

For info on events & more, visit their webpage at   http://www.paolipeaks.com


DECEMBER 2012 OBSERVATIONS
Date: High Temp/Low Temp/Precip (Rain or Wintry)/Snowfall
Dec 1--64/38/NONE/NONE<-------Warmest open to December in 17 YRS (1995-62°)
Dec 2--62/54/0.26"/NONE
Dec 3--69R/58/0.02"/NONE<-------Warmest Day since November 10th. Record High Tied.
Dec 4--64/39/0.14"/NONE
Dec 5--46/32/NONE/NONE
Dec 6--47/29/NONE/NONE
Dec 7--50/44/0.26"/NONE
Dec 8--49/42/0.03"/NONE
Dec 9--54/42/0.52"/NONE
Dec 10-46/30/TRACE/TRACE
Dec 11-36/26/TRACE/TRACE<---------Coldest Afternoon since November 24th
Dec 12-44/23/NONE/NONE<------------Coldest Morning since November 28th
Dec 13-48/26/NONE/NONE
Dec 14-53/30/NONE/NONE
Dec 15-55/38/0.12/NONE
Dec 16-56/39/NONE/NONE
Dec 17-46/37/0.05"/NONE
Dec 18-43/35/TRACE/NONE
Dec 19-43/37/0.01"/NONE
Dec 20-55/30/0.51"/0.70"
Dec 21-30/23/0.03"/1.70"<-------------Most Snowfall Since February 14th (1.60")
Dec 22-30/13/NONE/NONE<---------Coldest Morning Since January 19th
Dec 23-42/22/NONE/NONE
TOTALS-1132/787/1.95"/2"
*The actual average high (thru the 23rd) is 49.2°. This is 9.3° above the normal average high of 39.9° for the period of December 1st-23rd.
*The actual average low (thru the 23rd) is 34.2°. This is 8.9° above the normal average low of 25.3° for the period of December 1st-23rd.
*The actual average temperature for this month so far (thru the 23rd) is 41.7°. This is running 9.2° above the normal average temp of 32.5°.
*The actual total precipitation for the month so far (thru the 23rd) is 1.95". This is currently running 0.40" below the normal average precipitation amount of 2.35" for the period of December 1-23rd.
*The actual snowfall amount so far this month is 2". This is currently running 2.70" below the normal average snowfall amount of 4.70" for the period of December 1-23rd.
*The average high and low decreases only 1° for the remainder of the month. The avg high decreases from 37° on the 24th to 36° on the 31st and the avg low decreases from 22° on the 24th to 21° on the 31st.
*We average another 0.82" of rain for the remainder of the month.
*We average 2.20" of snow for the remainder of the month.


The first of 3 systems this week actually rolled in this morning thanks to a surface low. The one today is very weak, which offered up some sleet or light rain or freezing drizzle, maybe even a few snow showers but was nothing to be concerned about. For everyone else, it was a cloudy Monday with plenty of dry hours. We should dry out tonight and early tomorrow before the next system rolls in.
Tuesday, will start off cloudy and dry but wouldn't rule out a few morning flurries. System #2 will be approaching. This will come as rain late Tuesday and with temperatures dipping below the freezing mark we could be dealing with some light ice accumulations for Wednesday Morning. This could cause some travel problems on the road. The monster low pressure system will creep in from southwest and head northeast passing through Central Indiana. I think the heavier totals will be in the western half of the state, which looks to include Central and Northeastern Indiana. These areas will favor anywhere between 4"-12" of snow. For areas like the southeasern parts of Indiana will see the lower end of the totals between 2"-5" of snow. For Indianapolis, most models are placing about 7" for us. Really can't tell exactly how much will fall where but keep in mind we could get more than that or maybe less. Snow should begin to kick off after midnight, mixed with a little ice. THIS WILL NOT BE AN ICE STORM. This should change over to all snow for the rest of the day ending by midnight. Wouldn't rule out a few snow showers for Thursday Morning but the bulk of the accumulations will be done with, not looking at much for Thursday, if any.
Since this snow event will bring significant snowfall, the National Weather Service Indianapolis, IN has issued Winter Storm Watches that will be effective from Tuesday Night to Wednesday Night. This may be updgraded to a winter storm warning. The last time Indianapolis saw a winter storm warning issued for the area was January 31st 2011. Don't forgot we will turned up the winds too so this coupled with heavy snow may prompt the NWS to issue blizzard warnings too! A blizzard warning is issued when winds gusts or 35mph or higher and heavy snow is falling. Both would need to happen for more than 3 consecutive hours. If winds gusts are 45 mph or higher and heavy snow is falling for more than 3 consecutive hours than a Severe Blizzard Warning would be issued. For now, there are blizzard watches for Southwestern Indiana near the Evansville, IN area. This will be effective from Tuesday Evening until Wednesday Morning.



This spaghetti plot (of various NWS and Environment Canadian Models) shows the favorable track for Storm System #2 that will drop heavy snow into Indiana.



This will end leaving us with a rather cloudy but dry Thursday Afernoon. Again, could see a few snow showers in the morning but shouldn't add up to much at all. We could see some breaks in the clouds allowing for some peaks of sunshine but we have a shot at more sunshine for Friday as well. This period of time will be a break to recover from the snowstorm before storm system #3 moves in Friday Night into Saturday. This will bring more snow to the state. This will not be another massive snow storm. Too early to talk snowfall totals. There is a 50% chance for this to verify. Early thinking an inch or less of accumulations. Again, will monitor and see if this number goes up or maybe down. Some areas in the state may potential see a dusting or nothing.
I've talked a little bout it last month and in some of my latest blogs. SNOW keeps temperatures DOWN. The snowpack for this Monday is up to 45.8%. This is down 4% from Saturday but UP 15% from this time last year and about the same from where we were 2 years ago. There is no doubt we will begin to see some of our coldest temperatures in 2 years. Last season the lowest low temperature was 11° and the lowest high temperature was 19°. We did NOT see any single digit lows last season. In fact, you'd have to go back to February 9, 2011 since the last time we saw one of those. The last subzero low was February 10, 2011. This could be in store for us soon. As for highs, the last single digit high was February 15, 2009. I don't think we'll get this cold but its been almost 20 years since we saw a subzero high. On January 18, 1994 the high temperature was -4°. Just a few temperature observations for you. We only have about 2 months of cold winter temperatures to get through then we start WARMING UP for those Spring and Summer Fans.


***7 DAY EXTENDED FORECAST***



DEC. 25 DEC. 26 DEC. 27 DEC. 28 DEC. 29 DEC. 30 DEC. 31
CHRISTMAS WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY
PM
WINTRY MIX
HEAVY
SNOW
CLOUDY
SOME SUN
PARTLY
SUNNY
LIGHT
SNOW
PARTLY
SUNNY
CLOUDY
SOME SUN
BECOMING  BREEZY
35 30 28 31 30 25 31
27 23 18 24 17 19 20

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