Friday, December 28, 2012

Snow Tonight and Tomorrow, Dry But Cool Sunday

Good Friday! It was a much quieter day yesterday in the weather department after the post christmas snowstorm Wednesday. We did have quite a few clouds that stuck around, this looks to be the same today as well. I am remaining optimistic for a few peaks of sunshine for the early part of the day but clouds may rule the better part of the day. As for temperatures it will remain on the cool side but without a wind, it will make it a bearable day. Highs today are expected to be in the low to mid 30s. I am forecasting 34°.

The snowstorm that passed on Wednesday stirred up a few good chunky totals. Here's a list of a few snow totals around the state:
  • Ellettsville, IN 12.8"
  • Vincennes, IN: 12.5"
  • Martinsville, IN: 12.5"
  • Bloomington, IN: 12.5"
  • Switz City, IN: 12"
  • Paragon, IN: 12"
  • Edinburg, IN: 12"
  • Bloomfield, IN: 11.8"
  • Indianapolis, IN: 7.5"
  • Castleton, IN: 6.4"
  • Noblesville, IN: 6"
  • Frankfort, IN: 5.5"
  • Castleton, IN: 4.5"
  • Marion, IN: 3.5"
  • Attica, IN: 2.5"

Here's a few interesting facts from the snow storm in Indianapolis:
(1) 7.5" was the 2nd most snowiest day on record for December 26th, after 9.5" in 1895.
(2) This was the 4th most snowiest day in December on record. This is following;
(a) Dec 30, 1895-10.0" (b) Dec 26, 1895-9.5" (c) Dec 19, 1973-8.3"
(3) The last time the snow depth was 7" was Dec 21, 2010
(4) The last time we picked up 7" or greater of snow in one day was January 28, 2009 of 8".
(5) Of the 7.5" that fell, 3" fell in one hour between 9AM-10AM.
(6) As a whole, on avg, the snow fell at rate of 1"-1.5" per hour.
(7) On average, an inch of rain equals 10" of snow, this is a 10:1 ratio. We had .35" liquid, so that's a 21:1 ratio which equals 7.5" snow.
(8) Indy has picked up 97% of all of last winters snow in 7 days. From December 20th-26th, the city picked up 9.5". Last winters total snowfall was 9.8". The average snowfall in one season is 25.9". On Wednesday we picked up 37.4% of that.
(9) The average amount of snow for the season so far is 6.6" (thru December 26th). With 9.7" now, we have 147% of the seasons snow so far to date thru December 26th.

To read more on this Snowstorm, the NWS Indianapolis, Indiana has a write up on it. This is the biggest snowstorm at Indy Airport in 4 years.

Review of the December 26 Winter Storm/Blizzard


CHRISTMAS 2012 TORNADO OUTBREAK
A low pressure system that tracked along the gulf states spawn up 26 confirmed twisters (34 total reported) that impacted Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and North Carolina. Of these 26 confirmed tornadoes, 6 were confirmed as a EF0, 10 as a EF1, 8 as a EF2, and 2 as a EF3. One of the EF3 tornadoes struck Houston, Texas while the other struck the McNeill area in Mississippi. Luckily, no fatalities were reported but there was more than 24 people that were injured from the outbreak. One of the tornadoes confirmed in North Carolina actually occured on December 26th. This was the largest tornado outbreak ever to occur on Christmas Day in the U.S.


DECEMBER 2012 OBSERVATIONS
Date: High Temp/Low Temp/Precip (Rain or Wintry)/Snowfall
Dec 1--64/38/NONE/NONE<-------Warmest open to December in 17 YRS (1995-62°)
Dec 2--62/54/0.26"/NONE
Dec 3--69R/58/0.02"/NONE<-------Warmest Day since November 10th. Record High Tied.
Dec 4--64/39/0.14"/NONE
Dec 5--46/32/NONE/NONE
Dec 6--47/29/NONE/NONE
Dec 7--50/44/0.26"/NONE
Dec 8--49/42/0.03"/NONE
Dec 9--54/42/0.52"/NONE
Dec 10-46/30/TRACE/TRACE
Dec 11-36/26/TRACE/TRACE<---------Coldest Afternoon since November 24th
Dec 12-44/23/NONE/NONE<------------Coldest Morning since November 28th
Dec 13-48/26/NONE/NONE
Dec 14-53/30/NONE/NONE
Dec 15-55/38/0.12/NONE
Dec 16-56/39/NONE/NONE
Dec 17-46/37/0.05"/NONE
Dec 18-43/35/TRACE/NONE
Dec 19-43/37/0.01"/NONE
Dec 20-55/30/0.51"/0.70"
Dec 21-30/23/0.03"/1.70"<-------------Most Snowfall Since February 14th (1.60")
Dec 22-30/13/NONE/NONE<---------Coldest Morning Since January 19th
Dec 23-42/22/NONE/NONE
Dec 24-36/29/TRACE/NONE
Dec 25-33/30/TRACE/TRACE
Dec 26-33/28/0.35"/7.5"
Dec 27-34/24/NONE/NONE
TOTALS-1268/898/2.30"/9.5"
*The actual average high (thru the 27th) is 47°. This is 7.7° above the normal average high of 39.3° for the period of December 1st-27th.
*The actual average low (thru the 27th) is 33.3°. This is 8.5° above the normal average low of 24.8° for the period of December 1st-27th.
*The actual average temperature for this month so far (thru the 27th) is 40.1°. This is running 8° above the normal average temp of 32.1°.
*The actual total precipitation for the month so far (thru the 27th) is 2.30". This is currently running 0.47" below the normal average precipitation amount of 2.77" for the period of December 1-27th.
*The actual snowfall amount so far this month is 9.5". This is currently running 3.7" above the normal average snowfall amount of 5.80" for the period of December 1-27th.
*The average high for the rest of the month is 36°. The average low will decrease from 22° on the 28th to 21° by the 31st.
*We average another 0.40" of rain for the remainder of the month.
*We average 1.1" of snow for the remainder of the month.


I've taken a look back at all of my forecast for the month and compiled a list of all the forecasted highs this month. So how did I do?

Forecasted High VS Actual High
Dec 1:  Forecasted High-58 Actual High-64 Difference: +6
Dec 2:  Forecasted High-62 Actual High-62 Difference: 0
Dec 3:  Forecasted High-68 Actual High-69 Difference: +1
Dec 4:  Forecasted High-55 Actual High-64 Difference: +9
Dec 5:  Forecasted High-45 Actual High-46 Difference: +1
Dec 6:  Forecasted High-48 Actual High-47 Difference: -1
Dec 7:  Forecasted High-50 Actual High-50 Difference: 0
Dec 8:  Forecasted High-52 Actual High-49 Difference: -3
Dec 9:  Forecasted High-54 Actual High-54 Difference: 0
Dec 10: Forecasted High-49 Actual High-46 Difference: -3
Dec 11: Forecasted High-37 Actual High-36 Difference: -1
Dec 12: Forecasted High-44 Actual High-44 Difference: 0
Dec 13: Forecasted High-47 Actual High-48 Difference: +1
Dec 14: Forecasted High-50 Actual High-53 Difference: +3
Dec 15: Forecasted High-52 Actual High-55 Difference: +3
Dec 16: Forecasted High-58 Actual High-56 Difference: -2
Dec 17: Forecasted High-44 Actual High-46 Difference: +2
Dec 18: Forecasted High-48 Actual High-43 Difference: -5
Dec 19: Forecasted High-43 Actual High-43 Difference: 0
Dec 20: Forecasted High-55 Actual High-55 Difference: 0
Dec 21: Forecasted High-29 Actual High-30 Difference: +1
Dec 22: Forecasted High-35 Actual High-30 Difference: -5
Dec 23: Forecasted High-39 Actual High-42 Difference: +3
Dec 24: Forecasted High-40 Actual High-36 Difference: -4
Dec 25: Forecasted High-35 Actual High-33 Difference: -2
Dec 26: Forecasted High-30 Actual High-33 Difference: +3
Dec 27: Forecasted High-30 Actual High-34 Difference: +4


The 3rd of 4 snow systems this month will roll through tonight. Before so, we again have a rather cloudy day today. Snow chances will ramp up this evening. The event looks to begin anytime between 8pm and midnight, starting with the south first and then taper off to flurries or very light snow showers anytime between 4AM & 8AM. As for accumulations, not expecting a whole for central Indiana pointing North. Models favor about 2" or less for these areas. The heavier totals will be confined to the south & southeast along the Ohio River. These areas could see more between 2" to possibly even 5". This is all fresh numbers on top of what snow we already have on the ground now. Expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued that will likely expire probably before 9AM tomorrow. Some of the far southern Indiana counties are included in that advisory now that stretches through much of Ohio. Again, there will be a chance for some pesky flurries or light snow showers throughout the entire day, but will be very weak and isn't expected to accumulate to much of anything. High temperatures tomorrow, will be around freezing.
Sunday, will be a quiet and dry day but it will cold. In fact, this could be the coldest day of the season where temperatures fall to even get out of the 20s. The lowest high temperature so far this season is 30° achieved both on December 21st & December 22nd.
Next week, starts off cloudy and dry for your monday. It will be more like a repeat of today. Snow sytem #4 will creep in on Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. Could lay down another inch at best. Snowfall totals will become more clear in the coming days. Beyond that, we'll dry out and we get a break from the snow. I really don't see another signficant snow system screaming out in the long range at the moment. Things look good but cold for the first 10 days of January. Will monitor any changes and update you on any snow sytems that pop up.

Take a look at the current snow depth in the U.S. this is 2x more than what we had last year. Currenly 64.4% of the nation is covered in snow. For December 28, this is the largest snow depth for the date in well over 10 years. The more snowpack we have, the cooler temperatures will be. Don't be surprised to start seeing some of our coldest temperatures next month, we haven't seen in years. This include single digit and subzero lows and perhaps highs in the single digit and teens. I'm not promising you that it will get that cold but just wanted you to keep an open mind that it may get that cold. Only time will tell.




***7 DAY FORECAST***




DEC. 29 DEC. 30 DEC. 31 JAN. 1, 2013 JAN. 2 JAN. 3 JAN. 4
SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY NEW YEARS WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
LIGHT
SNOW
PARTLY
SUNNY
PM
SNOW
FLURRIES PARTLY
SUNNY
PARTLY
SUNNY
PARTLY
SUNNY
1"-2" 1"↓
32 28 34 30 27 27 25
15 18 23 12 17 13 16





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