2012 is on track to being the warmest year on record for the U.S. The average national temperature was 57.1° through November, which marked the warmest first 11 months of any year on record. By the way, 1998 holds the current record for the warmest year ever in weather history (since 1895) with an average temperature of 54.3°.
This warm year has set over 33,000 high temperature records. Of those, 19 of them have been tied or broken this year in Indianapolis. This includes, triple digit temperature records over the summer. We made a run twice to beat the record for the hottest temperature in Indianapolis ever but only ended up 1° shy of tying the 106° record originally set back on July 23, 1901. This record was challenged numerous times over the past 111 years. The record was tied twice on July 21, 1934 and July 14,1936. This year we topped 105° on July 6th and 7th which both broke the previous record highs for the dates (see chart below).
The two year high temperature record total is over 60,000. Simply remarkable! Not only are we setting temperature records but some in the state are setting rainfall records. Summer 2012 is one of the driest summers since the dust bowl era. Here in Indianapolis, we almost set a record for the driest June EVER on record. The record of 0.07" stood after we picked up 0.09" total for the month. This is a month that averages 4.55". Typically, the second wettest month of the year behind May. These averages are based on precipitation and temperature observations from 1981-2010. Our summer precipitation total, spanning across June, July, and August totaled 7.43". This was nearly 5" below normal.
August 4th marked the beginning of a wet weather pattern. Its not that we had a lot of rainy days, its the fact, that we picked up a lot of rain in a little amount of days. In fact we set a record for most rainfall in one day on September 8th with 2.71". This easily broke the 1942 record (held for 70 years) of 1.19". We did get a good line up of healthy doses of rain. We did get some from weakened Hurricane Isaac too as it tracked into the midwest before sharply turning out towards the East Coast. Looking back through the archives, 25% of the state was categorized in an Exceptional drought (worse drought category) during the first week of August. By the the first week of September, the state had been downgraded and 0% of the state was in this category. At that time, 54% of the state still remained in a Severe Drought. By the second week of October 0% of the state was in this category. Significant improvements had been made to where 6% of the state was no longer abnormally dry during that time where 40% of the state still remained in a moderate drought. The latest analysis issued Thursday now shows only 16% of the state remains in a moderate drought. Here's a look back at a month-by-month look at the drought maps for the first week of each month from April to December.
Here's a look at the records chart.
| Date of New Record 2012 |
Record High Temperature |
Previous Record High Temperature |
Record Highest Minimum Temp. |
Previous Record Highest Minimum Temp. |
Record Rainfall |
Previous Record Rainfall |
| JAN. 31st | N/A | N/A | 50° | 48° (1988) |
N/A | N/A |
| FEB. 29th | N/A | N/A | 45° | 44° (1976) |
N/A | N/A |
| MAR 14th | 81° | 79° (1990) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| MAR 15th | 80° | 77° (1977) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| MAR 17th | 77° | 76° (1894) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| MAR. 18th | 80° | 76° (1903) |
60° TIED |
60° (1874) |
N/A | N/A |
| MAR. 19th | 82° | 78° (1921) |
64° | 60° (1903) |
N/A | N/A |
| MAR. 20th | 83° | 80° (1894) |
63° | 62° (1921) |
N/A | N/A |
| MAR. 21st | 84° | 82° (2007) |
62° | 58° (2011) |
N/A | N/A |
| APR. 3rd | 84° | 83° (1946) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| JUN 28th | 104° | 101° (1934) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| JUN 29th | 103° | 100° (1934) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| JUN 30th | 97° TIED |
97° (1933) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| July 5th | 103° | 99° (1936) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| July 6th | 105° | 99° (1988) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| July 7th | 105° | 101° (1936) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| July 16th | 98° TIED |
98° (1988) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| July 17th | 101° | 100° (1887) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| July 23th | 102° TIED |
102° (1934) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| AUG. 8th | 98° TIED |
98° (1941) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sept. 8th | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.71" | 1.19" (1942) |
| Dec. 3rd | 69° TIED |
69° (1982) |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
The latest drought analysis for the first week of this month showed some worsening in the drought from the first week of last month in November. On November 6th (left image below) 56% was not considered abnormally dry, 44% was abnormally dry, and 7% of the state was still in a moderate drought. The latest analysis December 4th (right image below) shows now only 49% of the state is not considered abnormally dry, while 51% of the state is abnormally dry. Also, 16% of the state is now considered to be in a moderate drought. Last months rainfall only totaled 1.33" when finished 2.37" below normal. This was the second driest November in 10 years, and 15th driest November on record. We have only picked up 0.42" so far this month, now running 2.57" below normal. This puts the yearly deficit at 4.05" below normal.
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FALL 2012
This fall was tied for the 26th coolest fall ever in Indianapolis, with an average temperature of 53.1°. This was 2.1° below the normal fall average temperature of 55.2°. As for precipitation, it was the 24th wettest fall on record. The total rainfall this fall was 12.93". This was 2.99" above the normal fall rainfall total of 9.94 inches. August and September was the wettest of the 3 months but November's rainfall was not all that great for the country. Again, in Indianapolis November did finish as the 15th driest November, second driest in 10 years, and the 7th November to finish below normal in the past 10 years. In summary, we finished the season with near to below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall. For more a detailed look back, the NWS has a write-up CENTRAL INDIANA FALL 2012 CLIMATE SUMMARY on their webpage.
Not only is our rainfall down (since November 1st), but so is our snow. Look at the comparison in snow depth between December 6, 2012 (top) and December 6, 2011 (bottom) courtesy of the U.S. National Weather Service
In the top image image, only 6% of the nation is covered in snow on December 6, 2012 (yesterday). In the bottom image, roughly 39% of the nation is snow covered on December 6, 2011. The snow depth now is far less then this time last year. Last winter was mild, so I can only imagine this winter may be the same as well. Sorry, wish I had better news but there is good news out of this. The record for the lowest amount of snow in a winter season for Indianapolis is 5.50", which occured during the winter of 1918-1919. Each of the other other 93 winters have been higher than this amount. Last year, we picked up 9.80" for the entire winter season and by December 6, 2011 we had picked up 1.56" of snow for the period of October 1, 2011-December 6, 2012. During this time period we average 1.54". We have only picked up 0.20" so far this season. We are running well below normal by over an inch. The average amount of snowfall for a normal winter is 25.90" (over 2 feet of snow). The last season above this amount was the winter of 2010-2011 with 35.90". The previous winter 2009-2010 we had picked up 33" but 10 years ago we picked up 46.90" for 2002-2003. The record for most snow in a winter is 51" held by the season of 1981-1982.
If we lack the snow again this winter and do not pick up enough rainfall this could spell bad news for the Spring. This time last year, only 28% of the U.S. was in Moderate Drought or higher. Right now, over 62% of the nation is in a Moderate Drought or higher. Pretty much everyone is in the red and in a deficit for the year. Terre Haute, Indiana is over 17" below normal for the year other areas are a few inches below normal. We'll just have to wait and see where the weather pattern takes us but for now we do have some weekend rain chances. Not looking at a healthy dose but we can take whatever we can get as a frontal boundary comes in and stalls out. If we're lucky we may be able to muster up an inch. Behind all this, we do have a shot at snow. Not a great chance but if we are lucky once again, we may be able to receive an inch of snow as well. No guarantees though. Standby.
THIS WEEKEND
As I just mentioned a frontal boundary is coming in and will stall out for the weekend. It would be a rather cloudy and damp weekend as this brings a daily dose of rainfall. Also, temperatures will not drop or rise drastically. Lows will primarily be in the low to mid 40s while highs will be in the low 50s. Really only looking at a 5-12° spread between the high and the lows. It won't be a complete washout, we'll see some dry hours as well. The most driest of the 3 days will likely be Saturday. In fact, if things go well we may see a few breaks in the clouds that offer up a little sunshine but rain chances ramp up as we get into Sunday. Wouldn't even rule out a few rumbles of thunder or claps of lightning on Sunday but not looking at any severe weather this will primarily be just a rain event.
TODAY: Mostly Cloudy. Off & On Showers. High 52.
*The average high for today is 41°, average low 27°. Record High 65° (1951) Record Low -7° (1882). Sunrise-7:53AM Sunset-5:20AM
TONIGHT: Scattered Showers. Mild. Low 46.
**The high for today is expected to be 11° Above Normal while the low tonight is expected to be 19° Above Normal
NEXT WEEK
A cold front will come in Sunday Evening or early Monday Morning. Any rain could change into some wet snowflakes for Monday as a low tracks in from the Plains. We could likely get an inch or two but due to warm surface temps this probably will not stick and melt on contact. With the front, also comes cooler temperatures. Which may finally put an end to an above normal streak. Temperature will be more seasonal for the remainder of the work week could see a slight warm up for Thursday and Friday but will not last very long.
UPCOMING.....
NEGATIVE NAO+NEGATIVE AO+POSITIVE PNA=COLD, SNOWY WINTER
Nearly 10 days ago modeling was predicting a negative north atlantic oscillation (NAO) but the actual NAO is positive. With inaccurate modeling and inconsistencies, the long range forecasts cannot be trusted and they do NOT scream out that a pattern change is underway. Until there is a blocking up North (that holds), we'll continue to see this "zonal flow" where winds steer from west to east. This keeps temperatures on the mild side with normal to above normal temperatures and little goes in the way for storms to spin up. Considering this is winter, of course, we'll see some shots of cold air and some snowfall but in the end its possible we may finish the season once again with above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall/rainfall. Right now, the weather pattern is a bust. I have a quick note I'd like to share, do not, I repeat, DO NOT believe anything more than 7 days out. Until its evident modeling can be trusted I cannot guarantee you what the weather holds in future in a long range term. I had been seeing a white christmas as the month is expected to end cold but this may be a hoax. I really can't tell you at the moment what will happen with 100% certainty until we get to around December 17th, a week prior to Christmas. Standby for further updates.
| DEC. 8 | DEC. 9 | DEC. 10 | DEC. 11 | DEC. 12 | DEC. 13 | DEC. 14 |
| SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY |
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| CHANCE OF RAIN |
CHANCE OF T'STORMS? |
AM SNOW? |
PARTLY SUNNY |
MOSTLY SUNNY |
MOSTLY SUNNY |
PM RAIN? |
| COOLER | ||||||
| 52 | 55 | 40 | 35 | 41 | 48 | 46 |
| 44 | 36 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 33 |
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