First off, lets take a look at the short term forecast.
I'll start with weather indices (indicators or teleconnectors) such the PNA, NAO, & AO.
BACK TO BASICS WE GO!
PNA (Pacific North American oscillation) starts Negative and begins its trend towards Positive. A positive PNA is favorable for a ridge to set up out West allowing storms to come into the East. You can see its first positive on February 27th and spiking March 2nd. What this means for Indiana is storms is very possible during this period of time. On March 3rd the PNA then goes towards the Negative. This shows the stormy pattern will try and ease up. By the 7th-10th, it will be near neutral going into the negative.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is negative and stays negative. It begins its trend even further negative starting the 26th and bottoming out on March 2nd. On March 3rd it begins its trend back towards the positive even though it remains negative to March 10th. When the NAO is negative its creating a "Traffic jam". The eastern U.S. experiences more cold air outbreaks and snowy weather conditions. But when this is positive then the eastern US experiences mild and wet winter weather conditions.
AO (Artic Oscillation) makes a run towards the positive from the 22nd to the 25th. But by the 26th it begins its trend down and its WAY negative by March 2nd. Starting March 3rd it begins to trend back towards the positive phase. When the AO is in a negative phase artic air advects into the mid latitudes (central portions of the U.S.). The negative phase simply means its going to get cold. In a positive phase much of the nation's temperatures is either near normal or above normal.
So with all that being said, it appears the weather will be rather quiet for the next couple days. Temperatures will either be near normal or above normal. From the 26th-March 2nd, temperatures will be below normal (COLD) and will be rather stormy (SNOWY). Considering the NAO/AO is way way negative at its lowest and PNA spiking in the positive at its highest, likely indicates a big storm perhaps on March 1st/2nd.
Once this passes then the winter weather pattern shows the sign of easing up. NAO/AO going towards Positive and PNA going towards Negative. This won't be a significant change, this will be a gradual change. Overall, the next 2 weeks, temperatures will be below normal or near normal. By March 10th, if the trend were to continue on its path or go neutral then this could be an indication that winter is actually wrapping up its seasons run and Spring weather will begin. Just so you know, on March 10th, the average high is 49 and the low is 31. From the period of November 23rd-March 14th the average low is 32° or below. So, March 15th marks the first day Indianapolis averages both its high and low above freezing. Something to keep in mind, March 16th is the average first date for our first 70° day.
I've taken a look back over the past 10 years and compiled a list below of our first 70° day in March (or if none, then in April)
2012: March 12-71°
2011: March 17-74°
2010: March 10-72°
2009: March 06-70°
2008: April 07-71°
2007: March 14-77°
2006: March 12-70°
2005: March 30-77°
2004: March 24-70°
2003: March 16-74°
Even though we usually see some 70s in March and April, the days average high of 70° doesn't come until May 5th.
I went ahead and look at our first 80s and 90s as well. The average first date for our first 80° is April 20th and first 90° is June 18th. The days average high of 80° doesn't come until June 7th.
2012: March 14th-81° | May 26th-90°
2011: April 10th-83° | May 30th-90°
2010: April 1st-82° | June 11th-90°
2009: April 24th-84° | June 19th-91°
2008: April 23th-82° | June 8th-90°
2007: March 13th-80° | June 7th-90°
2006: April 13th-82° | July 2nd-90°
2005: April 10th-80° | June 5th-90°
2004: April 17th-82° | NO 90s This YR
2003: April 15th-81° | July 3rd-90°
Here's the latest March Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. They are suggesting we'll have Above Normal Temps (Image #1) and Above Normal Precipitation (Image #2)
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I pretty much agree with this. We'll get a head start on storms early in the month, upping our months precipitation total. Cool start though but its possible we can quickly rebound. Looking above, again 9 out of the past 10 months of March we've had a 70° in about mid March which is about 20° above normal so if we were to have a run at mild temperatures this will easily help us finish the month out with above normal temperatures. Here's my (Prediction) breakdown below. Notice I didn't really give out a prediction for Week 4, its pretty early to tell how things will go but if things were to pan out it could be similiar to Week 3 but another thing to look at is the period of temperatures recorded. If there's a lot of ups and downs which you can expect that in March it could be a rather stormy set up. This would limit the ability for temperatures to steadily rise above normal. We've had some wild temperatures swings here so I wouldn't be surprise if Week 4 was more of a Near Normal Temperature and Precipitation setup or even Near Normal Temperature to Above Normal Precipitation setup.
Week 1-Below Normal Temperatures & Near Normal to Above Normal Precipitation
Week 2-Below to Near Normal Temperatures & Near Normal to Below Normal Precipitation
Week 3-Above Normal Temperatures & Below Normal Precipitation
Week 4-Equal Chance for Above, Below, or Near Normal Temperatures and Precipitation
I really rather not try and give out predictions for the rest of the season but April isn't too much more different than March. After looking through temperatures records for the past 10 years, again, I've seen some good temperatures swings. If we don't see an 80 in March we usually see one in April. The latest first 80 over the past 10 years was April 24th but we usually see our 1st 80 between the 10th-15th. I've also seen some 30° or 40° highs in April. So with that being said, just based off of averages here, April could potentially see Near Normal Temperatures to Above or Near Normal Precipitation. The actual climate outlook for April will likely be more evident in the coming weeks. We really need to get about halfway through March first. Here's the seasonal forecast from CPC. They are hinting at again Above Normal Temperatures and Above Normal Precipitation for the entire season March-April-May.
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As the days get longer and the more sunshine we get, this allows more time for temperatures to get hotter. This is one reason why in March we starts seeing 70s, in April we start seeing 80s, and in May or June, we start seeing 90s. Though possible, we usually don't see many sub zero, single digits or teens lows in March. That won't begin until April. Usually by mid April we usually see our last freeze for the season. I'll come out with a updated graphic but here's one I made last year. By the way, last year the last freeze date was April 11th (29°).
The lowest low temperature ever recorded in May was 28°. We'll still see some 30s but usually the lowest low temperatures are in the 40s starting in May. In only 2 out of the past 10 months of May we've seen a high in the 90s. We usually don't see one until June. In 2003, we didn't see our first 90° day until July 3rd but in 2004, we didn't see one at all. The earliest we've seen a 90° in the past 10 years was May 26th last year. The first 90° record high temperature is held by April 24th, 1925.
WEEKEND FORECAST
Today, the skies have cleared out, and temperatures were off to a chillier start this morning. The low was 22° and the 12AM temp was at 31°. Plenty of sunshine today, high temperatures today will be in the mid, if not, upper 30s. Tomorrow, we'll be another quiet and sunny day with temperatures near 40.
Monday, we'll start to get some mid and high level clouds creeping in, thats an indication that a storm is coming. We'll still see some peaks of sunshine from time to time and we'll get a boost in temperatures as well with highs in the mid, if not, upper 40s. I call these 3 days, "CALM BEFORE THE STORM".
NEXT WEEK
As I've talked about it earlier, (STORM #3) very late Monday overnight or early Tuesday Morning, we'll get some rain showers going ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures on Tuesday will be hit early in the day in the low to mid 40s. The cold front will pass early and temperatures will fall back throughout the day. Rain will makes its change over to snow probably around sunrise. By Wednesday Morning temperatures will be in the mid 20s. We will have a daily chance for either flurries or snow showers going all week long. Some of these could even offer up good chances for measurable snowfall. Will fine tune and update in the coming days.
Once again, this the setup for the final days of February the open to March.
| FEB. 24 | FEB. 25 | FEB. 26 | FEB. 27 | FEB. 28 | MAR. 1 | MAR. 2 |
| SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY | SATURDAY |
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| PARTLY SUNNY |
MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS |
RAIN TO SNOW |
SNOW LIKELY |
SNOW LIKELY |
SNOW POSSIBLE |
SNOW LIKELY |
| DRY | MILD | STORM #3 |
BECOMING COLDER |
STORM #4? |
STORM #5? |
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| 39 | 47 | 46↓ | 34 | 33 | 30 | 30 |
| 26 | 46 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 20 |
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