METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
The 3 coldest months of the year; December, January, and February, are classified as Meteorological Winter. Despite a run at some very chilly temperatures the season has had in years, the winter was a mild one. Nearly 57% of the season was mild. 51 days out of 90 were above normal, 33 days were below normal, and 6 days were normal.
The winter started off mild and even stirred up a record high temperature in Indianapolis back on December 3rd when we tied the 69° record set back in 1982. After recording 64° on the 1st we did have one of the warmest opens to a December in 17 years, since 1995 (62°). This was the 18th time in 50 years, a December opened at 50° or higher. The most recent was back in 2009 with 54°.By the end of the first 10 days the average high was 55.1° (13° above normal) while the average low was 40.8° (13.5° above normal). This put the average temperature at 48°, which was about 13° above normal. Temperatures were back and forth with a cold blow at the end of the month. From December 11th-31st, there was 5 days that were below normal. The month finished averaging 6.8° per day above normal at 38.4°. The month did go down as the 19th out of the past 24 months (since January 2011) to finish above normal.
The big talk of December was the snowy end to the month, a month that finished as the 7th most snowiest December on record with 14.8". The other 6 snowy Decembers was (1) 1973: 27.5" (2) 1895: 21.5" (3) 2010: 16.6" (4) 2000: 16.3" (5) 1981: 15.6" (6) 1977: 15.2"
We had one of the biggest snow depths in years on December 29 of 10". We opened the New Year with a 77.1% snow coverage in the midwest. The national snow coverage was 66.6%. But not many (hefty) snow systems have moved through our region over the past month. The coverage in the midwest went down to 12.7% on January 24th, while the national coverage dropped to 39.6%. On January 25th, a system did pass through only dropping 1.2" of snowfall. This raised the midwest snow coverage to 23.8% on the 26th and the national coverage went up to 43.5%. On the 31st a system produced 0.9" of snowfall which has left the month of January to finish with 2.4". January 2013 goes down as the 35th least snowiest on record (over a span of 141 years). This was the also the least snowiest January in 12 years since 2001 when we picked up 2.1". The month finished 6.2" below normal.
We did have a 6 day run at high temperatures above 40° from January 8th-13th. Then much of the nation went to a deep freeze. Here in Indianapolis, we went down to as low as 4° on the 22nd and that days high temperatures only topped 18°. The average high temperature from the 14th-23rd is suppose to be 35.4°. The actual average high for this period is 32.4° which is 3° below normal. The average low temperatures from the 14th-23rd is suppose to be 20°. The actual average low temperatures for this period is 17.8°, which is 2.2° below normal. This puts the 10 day average temperature for this period at 25.1° which is 2.6° below the normal average temperature of 27.7° for this period.
However, temperatures began a short incline to 53° on Monday, January 28th and spiked to 64° on Tuesday, January 29th. On January 30th, we set a record high of 65° shortly after 1AM. This beats the previous record of 64° set in 1947. This was ahead of storm that brought in cooler air. Temperatures fell throughout the day and by a minute before midnight the official low went down as 27°. This was a 38° drop throughout the day. One of the largest drops in months. Winds were also howling with speeds that topped 43 mph and a peak wind gust at 48 mph. The storms that day produced an inch of precipitation and a trace of snowfall. A mixed bag of weather events all within 24 hrs.
This brings us to February. We had one of the coldest opens to a February in 17 years. Though we had the sunshine, temps were in the teens. The official high on the 1st went down as 16°. Coldest of the season, and coldest in 2 years. You have to go back to January 21st, 2011 to get a temperature that cold. A 13° high that day after a morning low of 3 degrees below zero. What a frigid day that was! The first 3 days of February 2013 averaged 12° below normal. A few snow systems moved through the first few days of the month as well. 1.5" total snowfall for the 1st (0.2') and 2nd (1.3"). High temperatures then went into the 30s on the 4th (37°), 5th (36°), & 6th (34°). By the 7th, the high soared up to 53° at 4pm, which was 19° warmer then the 6th and 25° warmer from the 4am morning low of 28°. A milder spell kept a 8 day avg temp from the 7th-14th at 47°. This is 10° above normal. Lack of snow during this time period put a decline in snow coverage. The national coverage declined from 46.1% on February 2nd to 38.1% on February 15th, while the coverage in the midwest region declined from 49.6% to 4.2%.
But then a pattern change back to colder weather brought a snowy mess in much of the midwest for the 2nd half of the February. A system moved through 18th/19th that dropped a quarter of an inch of precipitation. Some snow was expected but we only picked up trace amounts, This was storm system #1, with storm system #2 on its heels. 0.5" of snow, sleet, and freezing rain fell on the 21st. This was part of strong storm system (in its weakened state) that dumped over a feet of snow in some parts of Kansas. Near record snowfall of 14.2" fell in Wichita over 2 days but didn't best the 15" record. Record Snowfall at Kansas City International Airport of 9" was responsible for hundreds of flight delays and cancellation in and out of the city. The winter storm system prompted the governor of Missouri to declared a state of emergency on Thursday, February 21st and the storm also attributed to atleast a death in Oklahoma, Utah, and 2 in Wisconsin.
Those were 2 of a series of storm systems moving through the region. Storm System #3 was a gusher in Indianapolis. It brought 1.26" of rain to the city on the 26th. This was also part of the biggest snow system in Chicago/O'Hare for their winter season. 4.8" of snow was recorded on the 26th. Storm System #4, a cut-off low, moved in and parked itself Northeast of the state offering up lake effect snow showers. Since surface temps were warm, there weren't any accumulations on the roads but there was some on the grassy areas. Total Snowfall Totals from this system by the end of February 28th 0.6". This active second half of February put a increase in snow coverage for the Midwest region. It increased from 4.2% on the 15th to 46.8% on the 28th. Indianapolis was on the lighter end. 0.5" on the 21st, 0.2" on the 27th and 0.4" on the 28th gave the city 1.1" of snow for the second half the month. This brought the months snowfall total to 2.6". The month finished 3.9" below normal. The average snowfall for the month of February is 6.5". The seasons snowfall total was brought to 20". This is 3.1" below normal. We average 2.8" of snow between now and the end of April.
Precipitation amounts for February was near normal with the biggest one again on the 26th that dropped 1.26". The month finished with 2.27". The average amount is 2.31". This was -0.05" from normal which is near but slightly below normal.
For the season, precipitation was somewhat on the wet side. Seasons total adds up to 10.36". This is 2.21" above the normal precipitation amount of 8.15". Something worth noting, January was above average in precipitation in the U.S. Much beneficial precipitation hit much of the midwest region, of which 5.51" has reached Indianapolis. The average temperature in the U.S was 32°, which was 1.6° above the 20th century average. This was tied with 1958 as the 39th warmest January on record. By the way 20 out of the past 26 months have finished above normal. The months of January 2011, September 2011, September 2012, October 2012, November 2012, and February 2013 are the only 6 months that have been below normal since January 2011.
Here's a breakdown of the season's average temperatures, total precipitation and snowfall amounts.
| MONTH | AVERAGE TEMP |
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL |
TOTAL PRECIP. |
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL |
TOTAL SNOWFALL |
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL |
| DEC 2012 | 38.4° | +6.8° | 2.58" | +0.59" | 14.8" | +7.9" |
| JAN 2013 | 29.9° | +1.8° | 5.51" | +2.85" | 2.4" | -6.2" |
| FEB 2013 | 30.9° | -1.2° | 2.27" | -0.05" | 2.6" | -3.9" |
| TOTAL | AVG TEMP 33° |
+2.4° | 10.36" | 2.21" | 19.8" | -2.2" |
MARCH 2013
Though yesterday marked the end of meteorological winter and meteorological spring started today, we are still 19 days away from astronomical spring. This marks the vernal equinox, Wednesday, March 20th.
The equinox is when the sun is directly overhead at the equator. Night and day are nearly exactly the same length – 12 hours – all over the world. The word "Equinox" is derived from Latin, meaning "equal night".
Also, there is a time change on Sunday, March 10th. This is when we "SPRING" our clocks forward an hour at 2AM. So it goes like this; 1:57AM, 1:58AM, 1:59AM, then its 3AM! If you forget you will be late for work or church. This marks the start of daylight saving time (DST). This allows for shorter nights and longer days. DST runs til Sunday, November 4rd.
March is filled with lots of UPs and DOWNs. Looking over a ten year history don't be surprised to see a series of cold days followed by several warm days then back to cool days. Yes, its possible to record a 70° day then 2 days later record a morning low in the 20s and an afternoon high in the 40s. Then the day after we're in the 60s. March can be unpredictable at times and is usually one the most worse months when its comes to mother nature throwing a curveball. Just a little heads up on that. March is the biggest warm up month of the year, especially as the days become longer by 78 minutes and the sun continues to become stronger. The average high increases from 45° on the 1st to 58° on the 31st while the low increases from 28° on the 1st to 38° on the 31st.
Snowfall chances go down! The average snowfall amount is only 2.5". The best chance for snow is in the 1st half of the month. Pretty much by months end its a wrap. The average low goes above freezing on March 15th. The avg first 70° day usually comes in on March 16th. Out of the past 10 months of March going back to 2003, 9 out of 10 of these have recorded atleast 1 day with a high in the 70s. In 2008, we had to wait until April 7th before we saw our 1st 70. After looking over a 15 year history, if we fail to see a 70 in March, they generally come the first week of April. Last year, we saw 14 days with highs in the 70s.
Its not uncommon but over the past 10 years its been rare to see 80s in March unless this is March 2012 where the month recorded 7 days with highs in the 80s getting as warm as 84° on the 21st! This was 1° shy from tying the all time warmest temperature ever to be recorded in any month of March since record keeping began in 1871. The record for the hottest March temp of 85° is held by March 31, 1981. A dozen record events were recorded in Indianapolis and nearly every state re-wrote the weather history books for March. The wacky month had every states city checking temperature, precipitation, and snowfall records. Whether it was due to very hot temperatures or the lack of snow. Lets not forget about the devastating killer tornadoes that passed in Southern Indiana. Here's a link to my blog last year. I recapped the mild month of March 2012 as April sang a different tune, a cooler one.
Here's a chart I composed of our 1st 70, 80, and 90° days. The average first 80 comes mid April, and late May or Early June is typical when we see our first 90.
| YEAR | FIRST 70° DATE |
70° TEMP RECORDED |
FIRST 80° DATE |
80° TEMP RECORDED |
FIRST 90° DATE |
90° TEMP RECORDED |
| 2012 | MARCH 12 | 71° | MARCH 14 | 81° | MAY 26 | 90° |
| 2011 | MARCH 17 | 74° | APRIL 10 | 83° | MAY 30 | 90° |
| 2010 | MARCH 10 | 72° | APRIL 1 | 82° | JUNE 11 | 90° |
| 2009 | MARCH 06 | 70° | APRIL 24 | 84° | JUNE 19 | 91° |
| 2008 | APRIL 07 | 71° | APRIL 23 | 82° | JUNE 08 | 90° |
| 2007 | MARCH 14 | 77° | MARCH 13 | 80° | JUNE 07 | 90° |
| 2006 | MARCH 12 | 70° | APRIL 13 | 82° | JULY 02 | 90° |
| 2005 | MARCH 30 | 77° | APRIL 10 | 80° | JUNE 05 | 90° |
| 2004 | MARCH 24 | 70° | APRIL 17 | 82° | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 | MARCH 16 | 74° | APRIL 15 | 81° | JULY 03 | 90° |
Spring is near folks! Blooming flowers and green grass is not that far away but it often calls out the return of allergy season. So here's a few steps on how to prepare yourself;
(1) Clean and Vaccuum your house often and don't skip those showers. Good Housekeeping and Hygeine can help minimize discomfort.
(2) Pollen is typically at its highest in the morning. Wait until later in the day to go outdoors, if possible.
(3) Don't wait until the last minute. This is a good time to make sure you have the necessary medication you need. It helps to have it on hand.
Though there is no real cure for allergies these are a few simple steps you can take to help minimize the allergy suffering.
I talked about it in a previous blog, CPC issued its March Climatic Outlook hinting at above normal precipitation and temperatures. Since we are expecting the 1st 7 days of this month to be below normal, they have now changed the temperature outlook to an equal chance for above, below or near normal temperatures but precipitation still remains unchanged. I agree. I'm leaning more towards near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Here's my take on this month.
Week 1-Below Normal Temperatures & Near Normal to Above Normal Precipitation
Week 2-Near Normal Temperatures & Near Normal Precipitation
Week 3-Near Normal to Above Normal Temperatures & Near Normal to Below Normal Precipitation
Week 4-Equal Chance for Above, Below, or Near Normal Temperatures and Precipitation
Below are image of the NAO, AO, and PNA. I talked about what these mean in previous blogs. Basically, if we want a nice warm spring then we need the NAO/AO to be positive and PNA negative. Cold Air looks to ease up (NAO goes positive), the reinforcement of Cold Air backs off til the 13th (AO goes positive but then negative 13th-17th), and a trough doesn't form in the East (PNA goes Negative but back positive again the 16th). Likely an indication that the period of the 1st-8th will be cool. 9-13th will be fairly warm and maybe even dry, but weather gets sketchy 14th-17th. Perhaps a cool back in temps and maybe a developing storm system. A trend that will require some more attention as new model runs and chart trickle in.
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FRIDAY
Temperatures on Friday was nearly steady with a high of 33° and a low of 30°. This marked Day 13 out of the past 15 days with temperatures below normal. We start the new month already running 5° below normal. The avg high is 45° and the average low is 28°. We picked up 0.02" of precipitation and trace amounts of snowfall. This is still part of the same storm system that generated over an inch of rain on Tuesday and 0.6" total snowfall on Wednesday & Thursday. This will get out of here and some quieter weather will be coming in.
THIS WEEKEND
Snow shower chances will diminish. Only minor flurry chances tomorrow but otherwise, the clouds deck looks to decrease offering up some sunshine with a better shot on Sunday. A rather nice weekend but will not help in the temperature department. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 20s. Highs over the next few days will continue to hover around the mid 30s. Lows tomorrow night could reach the upper teens as skies clear up.
NEXT WORK WEEK
There have been 4 storms that have passed over the past 10 days, and I've mentioned them all above. Well all attention is now going towards another approaching storm system coming in late Monday (STORM #5), impacting our weather on Tuesday, and ending Wednesday. Technically this is a two part storm but to keep it simple this puppy is a snowmaker that has the potential to drop about 3-4" of snow. Some models are even hinting towards a swath of 4-6".
This is something that still requires a little more attention. Plenty of more time for those numbers to go up or down. Typically the most accurate forecasts are within a 72 hour time period.
Another thing to look for are the return of the 50s! Could be coming as soon as next weekend. Hold up though, another storm will be on its heels and could come in from the south around the 12 or 13th. Could this mean a pull back in temps again. Typical March weather. Standby!
| MAR. 2 | MAR. 3 | MAR. 4 | MAR. 5 | MAR. 6 | MAR. 7 | MAR. 8 |
| SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY |
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| FLURRIES SOME SUN? |
PARTLY SUNNY |
SNOW LIKELY |
HEAVY SNOW? |
AM-SNOW? PM-SUN |
MOSTLY SUNNY |
PARTLY SUNNY |
| DRY | STORM #5 |
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL? |
BECOMING | MILDER | ||
| 35 | 35 | 37 | 32 | 35 | 41 | 46 |
| 17 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 28 | 37 |
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