Snow, Snow, & More Snow

The warmth that spread across the state early this week that stirred up a record high temperature early Wednesday morning has now faded. Colder, artic air engulfs much of the region. We ended January cold and snowy. Now we open February as the coldest in 17 years with afternoon temperatures in the teens and morning lows dipping back into the single digits. This was the 5th time this winter season temperatures have chilled to single digit readings. Something that wasn't achieved once last winter. We flipped from a 7th most snowiest december to a 35th least snowiest January. Clouds will stream in tonight and we'll have more snow chances coming for the next 5 days. It looks like we'll likely finish the first week of February with more snow than the entire month of January. I have more details on the weekend and next weeks weather forecast later on in my blog.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (December 1st-current)
The winter started off mild and even stirred up a record high temperature in Indianapolis back on December 3rd when we tied the 69° record set back in 1982. After recording 64° on the 1st we did have one of the warmest opens to a December in 17 years, since 1995 (62°). This was the 18th time in 50 years, a December opened at 50° or higher. The most recent was back in 2009 with 54°.By the end of the first 10 days the average high was 55.1° (13° above normal) while the average low was 40.8° (13.5° above normal). This put the average temperature at 48°, which was about 13° above normal. Temperatures were back and forth with a cold finish. From December 11th-31st, there was 5 days that were below normal. The month finished averaging 6.8° per day above normal at 38.4°. The month did go down as the 19th out of the past 24 months (since January 2011) to finish above normal. By the way the months of January 2011, September 2011, September 2012, October 2012, and November 2012 are the only 5 months that have been below normal since January 2011.
The big talk of December was the snowy end to the month, a month that finished as the 7th most snowiest December on record with 14.8". The other 6 snowy Decembers was (1) 1973: 27.5" (2) 1895: 21.5" (3) 2010: 16.6" (4) 2000: 16.3" (5) 1981: 15.6" (6) 1977: 15.2"
We had one of the biggest snow depths in years on December 29 of 10". We opened the New Year with a 77.1% snow coverage in the midwest. The national snow coverage was 66.6%. But not many (hefty) snow systems have moved through our region over the past month. The coverage in the midwest went down to 12.7% on January 24th, while the national coverage dropped to 39.6%. On January 25th, a system did pass through only dropping 1.2" of snowfall. This raised the midwest snow coverage to 23.8% on the 26th and the national coverage went up to 43.5%. On the 31st a system produced 0.9" of snowfall which has left the month of January to finish with 2.4". January 2013 goes down as the 35th least snowiest on record (over a span of 141 years). This was the also the least snowiest January in 12 years since 2001 when we picked up 2.1". The month finished 6.2" below normal.
We did have a 6 day run at high temperatures above 40° from the 8th-13th. Then much of the nation went to a deep freeze. Here in Indianapolis, we went down to as low as 4° on the 22nd and that days high temperatures only topped 18°. The average high temperature from the 14th-23rd is suppose to be 35.4°. The actual average high for this period is 32.4° which is 3° below normal. The average low temperatures from the 14th-23rd is suppose to be 20°. The actual average low temperatures for this period is 17.8°, which is 2.2° below normal. This puts the 10 day average temperature for this period at 25.1° which is 2.6° below the normal average temperature of 27.7° for this period.
However, temperatures began a short incline to 53° on Monday, January 28th and spiked to 64° on Tuesday, January 29th. On January 30th, we set a record high of 65° shortly after 1AM. This beats the previous record of 64° set in 1947. This was ahead of storm that brought in cooler air. Temperatures fell throughout the day and by a minute before midnight the official low went down as 27°. This was a 38° drop throughout the day. Winds were also howling with speeds that topped 43 mph and a peak wind gust at 48 mph. The storms that day produced an inch of precipitation and a trace of snowfall. A mixed bag of weather events all within 24 hrs.
Overall, the season is still mild. 39 out of the past 62 days this season has been above normal which equates to 63% of the season above normal. Since December 1st we've had 7 days with highs in the 60s, 10 days in the 50s, 16 days in the 40s, 20 days in the 30s, 8 days in the 20s, and 1 day with a high temperatures in the teens. The average high for December 1st-January 31st should be 37.3°. The actual average high is 41.6, which is 4.3° above normal.
So far this season we've had 4 days with lows in the single digits, 15 in the teens, 20 in the 20s, 15 in the 30s, 5 in the 40s, and 3 days with low temperatures in the 50s. The average low for December 1st-January 31st should be 22.5°. The actual average low is 26.7°, which is 4.2° above normal.
MATH FUN: Take all the months highs and lows for December and January add them up and divide them by 124° and you get an average temperature of 34°. This is about 4° above normal.

Here's a look back at the weather observations for the past month:

DATE	HIGH	LOW	PRECIP	SNOW	SPECIAL NOTES
JAN 1	31	14	0.01	0.3"	This Was The Last Time We Saw Measurable Snowfall
JAN 2	22	5	NONE	NONE	(1) Coldest Day of Month & Season So Far (2) Coldest Morning since -1° on Feb. 10, 2011 (3) Coldest Afternoon since 19° on Jan. 19, 2012
JAN 3	30	10	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 4	29	18	NONE	NONE
JAN 5	38	18	0.01"	TRACE
JAN 6	35	25	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 7	36	16	NONE	NONE
JAN 8	43	23	NONE	NONE
JAN 9	48	31	0.10"	NONE
JAN 10	43	29	0.09"	NONE
JAN 11	57	43	1.09"	NONE
JAN 12	64	46	1.28"	NONE	(1) Warmest Day of Month (2) Record Rainfall beats previous record of 1.19" in 1930
JAN 13	56	22	1.27"	NONE	5 Day Rainfall Total 3.83"
JAN 14	23	16	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 15	30	19	NONE	NONE
JAN 16	33	23	NONE	NONE
JAN 17	40	21	NONE	NONE
JAN 18	40	19	NONE	NONE
JAN 19	53	37	NONE	NONE
JAN 20	42	21	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 21	22	9	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 22	18	4	NONE	NONE	(1) Coldest Afternoon since 19° on JAN 13, 2012 (2) Coldest Morning since -1° on FEB 10, 2011
JAN 23	23	9	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 24	23	11	TRACE	TRACE
JAN 25	27	17	0.10	1.2
JAN 26	31	13	NONE	NONE
JAN 27	37	19	0.23	NONE
JAN 28	53	37	0.34	NONE
JAN 29	64	52	TRACE	NONE	One of the warmest low temperatures since December 3rd
JAN 30	65	27	1.00	TRACE	65° sets new record high for the date. Previous Record was 64° set in 1947.
JAN 31	30	10	0.1	0.9

-Average High is 38.3°. This is 1.7°: above normal.
-Average Low is 21.5°. This is 0.3° above normal.
-Average Temperature (combo of high and low) is 29.9°. This 1.8° above normal.
-The months precipitation amount finishes at 5.51". This is 2.85" above normal. The average amount is 2.66"
-The months snowfall amount is 2.4". This is 6.2" below normal. The average amount is 8.6".


FEBRUARY 2013 AVERAGES/STATISTICS
February is the last month of meteorological winter and the shortest month of the year. Here's a look at the numbers and averages for the month.
The average high increases from 37° on the 1st to 45° on the 28th.
The average low increases from 21° on the 1st to 28° on the 28th.
The average temperature (combination of the day's average high and average low) increases from 29° on the 1st to 37° on the 28th.
The warmest temperature ever recorded in February is 76° on the 25th in the year 2000.
The coldest temperature ever recorded in February is -21° on the 10th in the year 1982.
The warmest February on record is 42.3° in 1882, the most recent was 38.7° in 2000.
The coolest February on record is 17.8° in 1978 (which came after the Great Blizzard of January 1978), the most recent was 19.7° in 2007.
The average precipitation amount for this month is 2.32". Generally, this is the #1 month out the year where we see the least precipitation amount.
The most precipitation ever recorded for this month was 7.28" held by the year 1882, the most recent was 5.25" in 2011.
The most precipitation ever recorded for this month in one day was 3.02" on the 20th in year of 1882. The most recent was 1.87" for the 11th in the year 2009.
The driest February on record was 0.18" in 1907, the most recent was 0.77" in 2004.
The average snowfall amount for this month is 6.5".
The most snowfall ever recorded in February was 21.7" held by the year 2003.
The most snowfall ever recorded in February in one day is 10" on the 16th in the year 1910. The most recent snowiest February day was 5.3" on the 5th and 6.3" on the 15th both recorded in 2010.
Its very odd not to record any snowfall at all during this month, only 5 years since 1872, have had only a trace of snow. Those years are held by 1918, 1931, 1932, 1935, and 1949. We've recorded more than a half an inch of snow in each of the past 10 months of February.
Typically, the month averages about 12 sunny days but averages in one of the top 5 most cloudiest months of the year at position number 4. Nearly 43% of the months days are either Sunny or Partly Sunny. The top 3 most cloudiest months of the year are March (42% sunny), January (39% sunny), and especially December (35% Sunny).


MIDWEST MIDWEEK STORM
On January 28th-30th, strong thunderstorms raged across much of the Midwest region and down South expanding out towards the Appalachians and Southeast. There was around 875 storm reports with nearly 810 of them reported as wind damage. There were also 21 hail reports and even 46 tornado reports, of which 43 were confirmed. There was 18 EFOs, 16 EF1s, 8 EF2s, and 1 EF3 tornado. The EF3 tornado struck in the Adairsville area in Georgia. This is nearly 65 miles Northeast of Atlanta. This also killed one person, ending a 219 day stretch without a U.S. tornado related fatality. The last person killed by a tornado was on June 24, 2012 in Venus, Florida. This is 53 miles Northwest of Fort Myers. This was back when Tropical Storm Debby impacted Florida.


YESTERDAY
An approaching cold front (thats already passed now) and the peak of solar heating added to diffulties in travel on Thursday. The snow showers got going, vigourous at times, and this reduced the visibility that led to a 35 vehicle crash. This crashed was made up of 20 semis and 15 cars, injurying many driver and even killed a 25 year man. It took numerous hours to clean up and now all lanes are clear for travel.
Check out this photo that was submitted to FOX 59 INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA

After receiving nearly 1" of snow, this was the 2nd snowiest day for the month.

TODAY
Today, starts a new month and it opened up cold. We got down to 5&$176; in the morning and wind chills as cold as -14°. This was the 3rd coldest morning this winter season behind the first time we hit 5° on January 2nd and the seasons lowest of 4° on January 22nd. Afternoon high temperatures reached 16°. This is now the coldest afternoon in 2 years (February 9th, 2011: 17°).

TONIGHT/SATURDAY
The clouds will thicken up tonight and again, more snow will get going after midnight as a clipper system moves through. This is a fast moving system that will lay down quite a bit in a little period of time. The snow will primarily fall throughout the morning hours. Actual totals will vary. The farther North you go the more you get and the farther south you go the less you get. Statewide, snowfall accumulations will be anywhere from 1"-4". The snow will taper off with very little accumulations in the afternoon. There could be a dry slot late day and may even squeeze out just a little sun but expect a fairly cloudy day. Temperatures will actually rise overnight and all day tomorrow, going from low to mid teens at midnight and peaking around 30° in the afternoon. I'm forecasting 28.

SUNDAY
Its Super Bowl Sunday and many will try to make those last minute runs to the store for Pizza, chips, and chicken wings. Another system will bring more snow to the city and this will make for a difficult travel. This will be a lighter snow system but could produce enough to coat the grounds with an additional 1"-2" on top of Saturdays 1"-4". The potential of 3"-6" of snow could fall for the entire weekend (Saturday and Sunday combined). Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 20s.

NEXT WEEK
There are several more chances for flurries or snow showers for Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday. Most of the weeks high temperatures will be in the low to upper 30s and low temperatures will range from mid to upper teens early week to low to upper 20s late week. Daily Temperature Departures will be at slightly below to normal values.

UPCOMING....
February 2013=Stormy Month
Weather indicators are not suggesting a prolonged period of cold temperatures. Temperatures will be UP at times, and DOWN at times. In fact, this month may very well finish with above normal temperatures. An ongoing trend that has been going on for many years. Since January 2011, 20 out of the past 25 months, has finished above normal. The heat is surging and lately we've been breaking record high temperatures set more than 50 years ago. The spring and summer drought last year, has taken until now to fully recover after picking up over 5" of beneficial rain last month in Indiana. Unfortunately for those out west in the High Plains in South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma, there are still feeling the effects of one of the worse droughts last year the U.S. has had since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s. Still 69% of the U.S. is still abnormally dry, while 6& of the nation is still in an Exceptional Drought. This could spell bad news.
Early talks are coming in on a mild spring. Could be a season of wild temperature swings and a severe weather season. A normal year sees 1300 tornadoes, last year we saw 1072. Numbers are being thrown out for an above normal tornado year. We've already confirmed 53 tornadoes this year and 1 fatality (mentioned earlier). If you believe in folklore, tomorrow is Groundhogs Day. If Punxutawney Phil sees his shadow, we’ll have 6 more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, we’ll have an early spring. With snow showers in the forecast for tomorrow, it will be cloudy day with limited sunshine. Seems like he may NOT see his shadow. Animals are usually good at predicting weather but I wouldn't always put my money on it. Winter scientifically doesn't end until March 20th and its possible to get snow in April. In fact, our average amount is 0.2" and even a trace amount for May. I will continue to monitor the weather pattern and bring you the latest information as it becomes available. Have a Nice Day!

***7 DAY OUTLOOK***

FEB. 2	FEB. 3	FEB. 4	FEB. 5	FEB. 6	FEB. 7	JAN. 8
SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY
SNOW SHOWERS	AM SNOW	FLURRIES	SNOW SHOWERS	MOSTLY SUNNY	RAIN OR WINTRY MIX	PARTLY SUNNY
28	27	33	32	37	40	37
19	17	19	18	26	28	27