This may mark the beginning of Spring but in terms of temperatures and weather, spring is actually delayed this year as cold weather grips much of the East Central and Eastern U.S. With many on Spring Break this month, I call this "Winter Break Part 2". We're continuing the cold weather pattern we are in that has been relentless since February 15th. Today marks day 27 of the past 33 days below normal. This stretch equates to 81% of the days where thermometer readings have failed to reach normal or above normal values. I hate to say this but there is no sign of it letting up.
WHY SO COLD?
Basically, there is a dome of warm air set up over the North Atlantic stretching to Greenland. This "Greenland Block" (NEGATIVE NAO) in addition to reinforcing cold air (NEGATIVE AO) and high pressure out west (POSITIVE PNA) is a perfect combination for winter storms in the Eastern U.S. As I look over the past month, Indianapolis has had maybe 8-10 storm events that has produced 3.24" of precipitation and 6.4" of snowfall (since Feb 15th).
We should be at a time of the year where we should be talking about 50s, 60s, and even 70s and less talk about 20s, 30s, 40s, and SNOW. The average high for this time of the year is 53° and even the average low temperature is above freezing at 34°. Yet we've observed low temperature readings in the 20s and highs in the 30s & 40s. We've had 3 days this month that did not go above freezing and we'll have a shot again at that this week. We are pretty much running 10-15° off the normal for highs and even 5-10° below normal for the lows. Currently, the month is averaging 4.5° per day below normal.April can bring warmer weather but the cold weather is hardly ever finished in March. The average last freeze comes mid April and the latest last freeze occured in late May of 1961. Over to the right is a look back at the last freeze dates for the past 5 years!
Mild March 2012 finished 14.4° above normal with a avg temperature of 56.6°. This was warmer than Aprils 54.5°. We don't see April cooler than March but this was definitely the case last year. The only other year on record for this occurence was in 1907. Record keeping began in the 1870s so if this had occured before then, there is no record of it. This should make you happy. If not, I have more WARM THOUGHS! Though it doesn't seem like it or show it now, we could very likely be in for some warmer weather next month. Based off of temperature records dating back 15-30 years, we tend to see a lot of temperature readings in the 60s and 70s. In fact, over the past 17 years, 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000 are the last 4 years Indianapolis didn't see a 80 in April. Each April from 2001-2012 saw an 80 in April. Statistics usually speak for themselves but there are times were weather deviate from it. I won't promise you we'll see 70s or 80s but the possibility is there. Just as quickly as temperatures dropped, they can quickly rebound as well. We are in the time of the year where the sun gets stronger, actually the sun at the start of spring is 46% stronger than the sun at the start of winter. When the cold air eases up, under the right conditions, we could easily go from a morning low of lets say 35° to a high of 70!
When I say we could have warmer weather next month, that doesn't necessarily mean temperatures will be above average. We could "warm up" (air quotes there) but still remain below average. The average high increases from 58° on the 1st to 68° on the 31st, while the average low increases from 38° to 48°. Typically we should have already recorded our 1st 70, the average date for the 1st 70 is March 16th. The average date for the first 80 is April 20th.
I have more information on 70s and 80s in my facebook note TALKS OF 70s AND 80s.
| YEAR | FIRST 70° DATE |
70° TEMP RECORDED |
FIRST 80° DATE |
80° TEMP RECORDED |
FIRST 90° DATE |
90° TEMP RECORDED |
| 2012 | MARCH 12 | 71° | MARCH 14 | 81° | MAY 26 | 90° |
| 2011 | MARCH 17 | 74° | APRIL 10 | 83° | MAY 30 | 90° |
| 2010 | MARCH 10 | 72° | APRIL 1 | 82° | JUNE 11 | 90° |
| 2009 | MARCH 06 | 70° | APRIL 24 | 84° | JUNE 19 | 91° |
| 2008 | APRIL 07 | 71° | APRIL 23 | 82° | JUNE 08 | 90° |
| 2007 | MARCH 14 | 77° | MARCH 13 | 80° | JUNE 07 | 90° |
| 2006 | MARCH 12 | 70° | APRIL 13 | 82° | JULY 02 | 90° |
| 2005 | MARCH 30 | 77° | APRIL 10 | 80° | JUNE 05 | 90° |
| 2004 | MARCH 24 | 70° | APRIL 17 | 82° | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 | MARCH 16 | 74° | APRIL 15 | 81° | JULY 03 | 90° |
MARCH 2013
Today marks the 3rd day this month we've been 100% dry. There has been 16 days this month where the NWS office at Indy Airport has recorded at least trace events of precipitation and snowfall (or more). The current snowfall total for this month is 5.3" and current precipitation sits at 1.27". The month so far is running a little more than half inch below normal in precipitation and 3.4" above normal in snowfall. The highest temperature so far this month is 67° recorded on March 10th. The lowest temperature is 19° recorded recently recorded the morning of March 14th. 16 out the past 19 days this month (including today) have been below normal.
TODAY
Its been a cold and windy but sunny day in Central Indiana. As of 7pm, the unofficial high is 41° and the low is 24°. Morning Wind Chill as cold 11°. We had a peak wind speed of 35 MPH and a peak wind gust of 43 MPH under a brisk west wind. May not sound like the most pleasant conditions but much bearable than March 19, 1906 when 12.1" of snow fell.
TONIGHT
We'll start with some clear skies early but there will be some clouds that will start to fill in. We should continue to remain dry and the winds should settle. It will be a cold night with lows again in the low 20s.
WEDNESDAY
The first day of Spring will certainly still feel as if its the middle of January rather than mid March. High Temperatures will run 20° below normal. The average high is 54 and the average low is 34. The forecasted high of 33° is below the avg low temp. Wednesday will be cold and partly cloudy. There will be plenty of dry hours with some sunshine mixed in in the afternoon but there will certainly be a possibility for a few passing flurries early in the day and then again overnight Wednesday into Thursday Morning.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY
Temperatures will flirt with morning lows in the teens for both days. There could be a few flurries on Thursday morning but otherwise both days should remain pretty dry under partly sunny skies. The high temperature for Thursday is expected to be near freezing and the the high temperature Friday will be warmer but cool in the upper 30s.
NEXT WEEKEND
Saturday is the pick of the weekend. Another dry and sunny day with temperatures in the low 40s. Sunday requires more attention as newer model runs comes in. Right now, a southern storm system has the potential to bring significant snowfall to the state. Its too early to talk numbers, can't really say how much. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio are all in the storms path. Models should have a better handle of the storm in the coming days as the storm materializes. Something to keep in mind, the most accurate forecasts are within 24-72 hours. So Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are the days to really watch. Not all models go out 5-7 days in advance so it'll be better to see what is happening as other models spit out their opinions. Also, sundays temperatures will be tricky. Until we know what will happen its hard to say whether we'll be in the mid to upper 30s, or low 40s. Right now, I'm going upper 30s.
UPCOMING....
The NAO is negative going into April and the AO is negative until the 27th. Its positive from the 27th and then goes back towards the negative on or shortly after April 4th. This just basically means that the cold air isn't going anywhere and where we should be warming up and our bodies are going to tell the mind that we are just going to continue to feel brutally cold.
Taking a look at the PNA and its positive from March 26th out to atleast April 4th which is conducive to storms.
If this March is anything like the March of 1996, that finished with nearly 13" of snow and follows April of 1996 then I guess we can say April 2013 will be very active in the severe weather department. No promises just a thought. We currently have half the amount and *IF* Sundays storm would to verify (potential blizzard-like conditions) that would put us at even. We saw what happened to this Sundays past system...nothing really happened. I can't say with certainty that Sunday will pan out with all the fuss but its just something to watch to see what happens. Again, will update and see how little or much the forecast for Sunday, March 24 and Monday, March 25th changes.
Colder than Normal Pattern looks to continue into April:
Here's how much below the high temperature will run off the normal. Current avg high is 53 which climbs to 58 by March 31st:
LAST 5 DAYS (March 13-18): -9°
DAYS: 1-5 (March 20-24): -17°
DAYS: 6-10 (March 25-29): -20°
DAYS 11-16 (March 30-April 5): -19°
| MAR. 20 | MAR. 21 | MAR. 22 | MAR. 23 | MAR. 24 | MAR. 25 | MAR. 26 |
| WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY | SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY |
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| AM FLURRIES |
PARTLY SUNNY |
PARTLY SUNNY |
PM SNOW? |
SIGN. SNOW |
AM SNOW? |
PARTLY SUNNY |
| SPRING ARRIVES |
COLD | COOL | MILD | STORM POTENTIAL |
COOL | CHANCE OF RAIN? |
| 33 | 30 | 39 | 44 | 37 | 39 | 37 |
| 16 | 19 | 25 | 29 | 25 | 22 | 27 |
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