Friday, March 15, 2013

Rain and Snow This Weekend

Good Friday to All! Its a nice & mild day today with afternoon, early evening highs in the 50s. Something thats been rare since Valentines Day! Since Feb 14th only 5 days have reached 50° or higher and over the past 29 days, 9 have been normal or above normal. This means 20 days or 69% of the past 29 days have been below normal. We should be talking less of highs in the 30s and 40s this time of year and more of highs in the 50s, 60s, and even 70s. I've looked back over the past 30 years (since 1983) and only 5 times has a March not reached 70°. 1st in 1984, 2nd in 1996, 3rd in 1999, 4th in 2001, and 5th in 2008. Each of these years was followed by the first 70 coming in April instead, some of which occured within the 1st 7-10 days of the month. Also, 1996, 1998, 1999, & 2000 were the last 4 years, 80s was not hit in April. Yes, each April from 2001-2012 recorded atleast 1 80° day. Here's another look at my chart on the 1st 70, 80, and 90 degree days of the spring (or summer) season over the past 10 years. The average date for the first 70 is March 16th, first 80 is April 20th, and first 90 is June 18th.

YEAR FIRST
70°
DATE
70°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
80°
DATE
80°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
90°
DATE
90°
TEMP
RECORDED
2012 MARCH 12 71° MARCH 14 81° MAY 26 90°
2011 MARCH 17 74° APRIL 10 83° MAY 30 90°
2010 MARCH 10 72° APRIL 1 82° JUNE 11 90°
2009 MARCH 06 70° APRIL 24 84° JUNE 19 91°
2008 APRIL 07 71° APRIL 23 82° JUNE 08 90°
2007 MARCH 14 77° MARCH 13 80° JUNE 07 90°
2006 MARCH 12 70° APRIL 13 82° JULY 02 90°
2005 MARCH 30 77° APRIL 10 80° JUNE 05 90°
2004 MARCH 24 70° APRIL 17 82° N/A N/A
2003 MARCH 16 74° APRIL 15 81° JULY 03 90°



Here's a look back our a temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall observations this month.

DATE HIGH LOW PRECIP SNOW
MARCH 1 33 30 0.02" TRACE
MARCH 2 30 25 0.01" 0.2"
MARCH 3 35 22 TRACE TRACE
MARCH 4 38 21 TRACE TRACE
MARCH 5 37 28 0.45" 2.6"
MARCH 6 32 27 0.07" 1.8"
MARCH 7 35 28 TRACE TRACE
MARCH 8 42 24 NONE NONE
MARCH 9 54 30 TRACE NONE
MARCH 10 67 48 TRACE NONE
MARCH 11 58 33 0.10" TRACE
MARCH 12 44 31 0.02" 0.2"
MARCH 13 32 22 TRACE 0.2"
MARCH 14 43 19 TRACE TRACE
The average high is 41.4° and the avg low is 27.7°, which puts the avg temp for the month at 34.6°. This is 4.5° from normal and also 0.1° shy from being tied with March 1926 as the 10th coolest March on record.
The total precipitation amount so far is 0.67". This is currently running 0.78" below normal. We should be at 1.45" right now. THe average precipitation amount for the entire month of March is 3.56".
The total snowfall amount so far is 5". This is currently running 3.4" above the normal 1.6" we should have right now. The average snowfall amount for the entire month of March is 2.6". We are already 2.4" above normal.


TONIGHT


This is not a severe thunderstorm threat but rather a warning that some non threatning weak thunderstorms will be possible along with some hail. The best hours for this to occur will be from 10pm tonight ending by 3am. Lows tonight will remain mild with temperatures in the low 40s. Here's a look at a continuous radar loop from WUnderground.



SATURDAY
Rain should taper off in the morning hours but the cloud deck looks to remain thick in the afternoon. Temperatures won't budge a whole lot. Highs will only be in the middle 40s. Mostly Cloudy overnight Saturday with lows around 30.

SUNDAY
Another system comes in and this is where things get tricky. There's been a lot of uncertainty as to what will happen but it appears it will be colder and we'll be able to get another shot at snow. Could be some rain mixed in as well. The following image is a snapshot from a video analysis issued by BAM Chase Team. The image depicts 4 different scenarios from 4 different weather computer models for where heavy snowfall will setup Sunday into Monday. RPM model takes it North, GFS brings it through the Central section of the state, European model takes it down in Southern Indiana/Northern Kentucky, and the NAM model takes it West in Missouri and parts of Illinois. All 4 models should have a better handle at it tomorrow but still anybody's guess as to which of the models will verify. Snow totals look to range from a dusting up to 6". Who gets what is the question we'll soon have the answer too soon. In the meantime, expect that some kind of winter storm is there that even brings a chance of freezing rain and sleet Sunday night.


Highs will be in the upper 30s, if not lower 40s. Rain/Snow chances continue into Monday Morning. Sunday Evening or Monday morning lows will be around freezing.

MONDAY
AM wintry mix changes to mostly rain as warmer air pushes in. Temperatures will be mild with highs in the upper 40s. After sunset, temps slip back and rain could change back to some snow monday night. Lows overnight on Monday drop back below freezing towards the mid to upper 20s.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY
A much colder day is in store for Tuesday. Could see a few snow showers around in the morning and evening hours. I think we'll still see some dry hours in between. Dry Wednesday and most of Thursday. Thursday Night another system comes in that offers more rain or snow, then mostly snow for Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday & Wednesday but low 40s for Thursday and Friday.


UPCOMING...
Due to a blocking up North (bubble of warm air over Greenland), which doesn't show signs of easing up right now, we'll easily continue to remain in a "Colder than Normal" weather pattern for the better part of the next 3 weeks. The better part of the next 16 days this month will be spent in either the 40s or 30s with very little 50s. Highs will continue to remain 10-20° below normal for the second half of this month.
Also, there will be plenty of more chances for rain and snow this month. The overall pattern remains active and will certainly keep everyone on their heels, waiting for a change in this weather pattern thats been relentless since the day after Valentines Day. Will continue to monitor and update when Spring will official arrive in the temperature department. You can continue to count down the days til astronomical Spring begins in 5 days but it won't help until we start seeing more 60s and 70s and less 30s & 40s. The average high should be in the 50s the rest of the month, and average low should be above freezing. I talked a little about it at the beginning of the blog. I've also created a Facebook Note (link below) of when we can expect warmer temperatures. Based off weather history dating back 30 years, I can promise you, we will likely see 60s and 70s sometime next month. Though 80s are common in April, I'm not sure thats something I can guarantee at the moment until the blocking backs off.


TALKS OF 70s AND 80s<-------CLICK THE LINK FOR MORE DETAILS (FACEBOOK NOTE)




***7 DAY OUTLOOK***

ASTRONOMICAL SPRING BEGINS MARCH 20TH AT 7:02AM!

MAR. 16 MAR. 17 MAR. 18 MAR. 19 MAR. 20 MAR. 21 MAR. 22
SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
AM
RAIN
RAIN/SNOW
MIX
RAIN/SNOW
MIX
SNOW
LIKELY
PARTLY
SUNNY
PM RAIN
OR SNOW?
SNOW
POSSIBLE
SNOW
ACCUM?
COLD SPRING
ARRIVES
DRY
EARLY
45 40 47 36 35 40 40
30 33 25 23 22 27 26



No comments:

Post a Comment