Friday, March 8, 2013

Sunny Today, Mild Tomorrow, Rain Sunday

The colder weather pattern that has been so prevalent since after Valentines Day will temporarily ease up this the weekend. 18 out of the past 21 days have either been normal or below normal. With 7 day average temp of 30.7° this is a month that is averaging 7.6° per day below normal.
Our 7 day average temp should be at about 37° (Average High/Low: 47/27).

Thanks to high pressure moving in, those stubborn clouds finally broke up which is allow plenty of sunshine today but soak it up because it won't last long. Sunshine started early, this is a beautiful shot this morning shortly after 7AM taken from the camera at Lucas Oil Stadium downtown. The sunshine should work on the snow pack today and also allow temperatures to warm up a few degrees despite the early morning low of 24°. The highest temperature so far this month is 38° hit on Monday. Highs this morning should get into the lower 40s. This will be the 1st time in the 40s in 8 days.


Sunshine may stick around for the early part of Saturday but clouds will quickly be on the move back in. This is ahead of the next storm system that will be coming back. As we get on the backside of high pressure that should allow those Southerly winds to circulate in allowing temps to warm up not only for Saturday but Sunday as well. We'll flirt with the return of the 50s this weekend. Something that was last achieved, 18 days ago, on February 18th (actually the high went down as 60° shortly before 3pm). A week ago it looked like we may reach 60s again, but given the recent snow coverage, this limit those chances slim to none. Tomorrow is the pick of the weekend.

We've had 5 different storm systems come through over the past 2-3 weeks, since February 18th, that has produced 2.52" of precipitation and 5.7" of snowfall. The 6th of the series comes Sunday that has the ability to produce an inch of rain, if not more. Colder Air will marks its return and as it does, these rain showers will turn to snow showers as the temperatures fall back. Winter is not done by any stretch of the imagination, even with Astronomical Spring on its heels. We're only 12 days left to the start of spring and weather indicators (also called teleconnectors) such as the NAO and AO remains negative for the better part of the next 2 weeks. Take a look back at the weather observations in March 2011. Even though the month had a period of warm days, notice the cold end to the month. A cold end that produced a 1.5" of snow on March 30th. This was the biggest snow event of the month. 5 other event produced only trace amounts. Could this month be a similiar path. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another measurable snow event. It doesn't look like we'll have one within the next 7-10 days but given the months track and again the negative NAO/AO, its certainly possible. Standby on that one. We'll see.



Going back to Sunday and Mondays Rain Event. Here the QPF (precipitation) forecast over the next 72 hours. Looking at a touch over 1". The switch from rain to snow will likely occur sometime in the evening hours on Monday. We are not expecting any accumulating snowfall. I'll have a better timeline in the coming days.



Daylight Savings Time begins this Sunday. Don't forget to set your clocks an hour before you go to bed tomorrow night or you'll be late for work or church on Sunday. It'll go like this, 1:57am, 1:58am, 1:59am, 3AM! This allow for the sun to set later. For a short period of time the sun will rise later but the day is lengthening and will continue to lengthen for the next couple months. Sunrise on Saturday is at 7:05 AM and Sunset is at 6:46pm but on Sunday Sunrise is at 8:04 AM while sunset is at 7:47 PM. Despite the time shift, Sunday will still be a little over 2 mins longer than Saturday. Again, we aren't losing any daylight, its a time shift occuring. March gains 78 minutes of daylight, the biggest gain of the year.


***EXCLUSIVE 8 DAY OUTLOOK***

TIME CHANGE MARCH 10TH! ASTRONOMICAL SPRING BEGINS MARCH 20TH!
8 DAY AVERAGE HIGH: 50° | 8 DAY AVERAGE LOW: 32°

MAR. 8 MAR. 9 MAR. 10 MAR. 11 MAR. 12 MAR. 13 MAR. 14 MAR. 15
FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
SUNNY PARTLY
SUNNY
AM CLOUDS
PM RAIN
AM RAIN
PM MIX
EARLY AM
FLURRIES?
PARTLY
SUNNY
PARTLY
SUNNY
CHANCE
OF RAIN?
DRY MILD MILD 1"
RAIN
COOLER DRY MILD WEAK
SYSTEM
44 50 55 46 43 42 45 42
29 43 40 26 27 28 30 31

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