Talk about a climate change, who flipped the switch? We all can feel the difference between last year and this year, really don't need to go over those numbers. Just know that its obviously cooler.Over the past few years we've broken hundreds of records; high and low temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall records. We've seen just about it all with weather extremes. Since 2010, 76% (29) of the past 38 months have finished above normal. The months of January 2010, February 2010, December 2010, January 2011, September 2011, September 2012, October 2012, November 2012, & February 2013 have all finished below normal. Thats only 9 months over the past 3 years to finish below normal. Interesting part is, 4 have occured within the past 6 months. Simply Remarkable!
The cold air that has recently invaded most of the Central and Eastern Half of the nation has definitely been the talks since the beginning of this year. A period of cold air we haven't seen in while. In January & February we recorded our coldest in temps in 2+ years pretty much since the warm weather pattern started. The day after Valentines Day marked the beginning of a stretch of below normal temperatures thats still currently underway at the moment. A product of a blocking pattern still holding at day #42. Of these 42 days, the city has only managed to record 6 days above normal and 2 days normal, while the other 34 days have been below normal. In fact, another streak is going in the middle of this below normal pattern. Thursday, March 28th marks 17 consecutive days below normal and counting.A bubble of warm air over Greenland stretching over the North Atlantic is driving the cooler air Southbound (also refered to as a Negative North Atlantic Oscillation). With a ridge set over in the West (positive pacific north american pattern) thats keeping the Colder Air East which favors the tracks for snowstorms. We had the perfect combination for one of the biggest March snowstorms late last weekend into early this week. A snowstorm that dropped 9" in Indianapolis. With the blocking pattern continuing to prevail, more snow is possible over the next 2 weeks. Its rare to record measurable snowfall in April but its not uncommon to record trace amounts of wintry precipitation. Over the past 15 years, 9 months of April recorded trace amounts and 2001 was the last time we had measurable snowfall with 0.2". The most snowfall ever recorded in April is 5" which occured on the 9th in 1897.
This is a time of the year where we should be done talking about snowfall and be talking about warmer temperatures like 60s, 70s, and even 80s. The average temp is now in the upper 50s and we should have already seen our 1st 70. The average date for the 1st 70 usually comes Mid March and we're heading into April now. The average date for the 1st 80 is coming as well, usually April 20th.
| YEAR | FIRST 70° DATE |
70° TEMP RECORDED |
FIRST 80° DATE |
80° TEMP RECORDED |
FIRST 90° DATE |
90° TEMP RECORDED |
| 2012 | MARCH 12 | 71° | MARCH 14 | 81° | MAY 26 | 90° |
| 2011 | MARCH 17 | 74° | APRIL 10 | 83° | MAY 30 | 90° |
| 2010 | MARCH 10 | 72° | APRIL 1 | 82° | JUNE 11 | 90° |
| 2009 | MARCH 06 | 70° | APRIL 24 | 84° | JUNE 19 | 91° |
| 2008 | APRIL 07 | 71° | APRIL 23 | 82° | JUNE 08 | 90° |
| 2007 | MARCH 14 | 77° | MARCH 13 | 80° | JUNE 07 | 90° |
| 2006 | MARCH 12 | 70° | APRIL 13 | 82° | JULY 02 | 90° |
| 2005 | MARCH 30 | 77° | APRIL 10 | 80° | JUNE 05 | 90° |
| 2004 | MARCH 24 | 70° | APRIL 17 | 82° | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 | MARCH 16 | 74° | APRIL 15 | 81° | JULY 03 | 90° |
Its also the time of the year where we should be nearing our last freeze. Check out the history for the past few years.
The blocking high North has made a shift East. Its still there but with the higher sun angle and inching a month closer to the summer months we'll begin to pump in warmer air. This simply means we'll start seeing some more of those warmer temperatures. Be warned though, average temps are 60s for April. Just because we'll get the warmer temperatures mostly 50s doesn't mean we'll quickly shake the below normal pattern especially the first half of April. By the end of April, I think the blocking pattern should be faded and we'll begin to get back into normal spring weather but its anybodys guess at to what may happen. The blocking high actually prevents the development of severe weather (i.e. Thunderstorms & Tornadoes-both hard to come by this month). 50s are more typical for this month but we primarily saw 30s and 40s for highs. We'll see some 60s and perhaps a few 70s next month but 50s will predominately be the theme for highs next month particularly the first half of the month. A few snow chances will also be possible during the first and maybe 2nd week of April. Over the past 15 years, there has been a few years where traces of wintry precipitation have been recorded in mid to late April even after seeing a few mild days. Not saying this will happen next month but the possibility is certainly there. Last week, it appeared that the first week of April would be mild but that rapidly changed within the past few days. After this weekend, temps cool back next week. Earliest model runs indicate a resurgent in mild temps next weekend but I gotta say, that could also change as well. Highs in the low to mid 60s are typical for the first half of April. I think we'll likely see the bulk of the temperatures below 60s but yes, there is a small chance right now that we may see a day or two above 60 before or by April 10th. Not sure if I want to get into mentioning 70s. I want to get through this weekend first. I'll go more into detail on those mild temps coming in the upcoming days.TODAY
Under clear skies the low temperature dipped to 26° this morning. That March Sunshine really works wonders on those temps. The high goes down as 49°. Despite the warm up, which felt good by the way, today did mark the 17th consecutive day (this month) below normal. Again, a cold pattern that has held for 42 days now. The average high is 57.
TONIGHT
We'll be under mostly to partially clear skies so temperatures will be allowed to dipped back below the freezing mark tonight, perhaps in the upper 20s. Going with a low of 29. The average low temperature is 37.
GOOD FRIDAY
Should be another nice, sunny, and dry day across Central Indiana as high pressure continues to be in control. There will be a weak disturbance farther to the South that brings a few scattered showers but nothing for us farther North to be concerned about. Highs will make a run at 50s but again, will be another below normal day.
SATURDAY
This is the pick over the next week. To go along with Friday, Saturday is another great day for sports lovers. Get out and shoot some hoops, swing the bat, or hit the golf course. You can also take a jog or a walk, take your kids and pets too! I'll also say its a good day to do some grilling if you want a BBQ Easter Meal. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s which is actually rather seasonal for the end of March. Could be tricky to say but we may actually snap the below normal streak. We'll see...
Eyes will also be kept on radar of an approaching system but it'll wait until the nighttime so you can enjoy the fairly dry day for your outdoor activities.
EASTER
Easter Egg Hunters will have to dodge a few raindrops or those heading into morning Easter services will need the umbrella. The best time for rain will be in the morning hours until about midday. There will be some dry hours but most of the day will be cloudy. Easter Egg Hunters should be okay in the afternoon but I wouldn't count out a pop up shower. If you can, move the Easter Egg Hunt to Saturday instead. Rain accumulations look to be at maybe a half inch or less. Temperatures will continue to remain on the mild side with temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. *IF* we actually do manange to squeeze out some afternoon sunshine it may help the temperatures make a run at 60s!
Here's some Easter Weather History
Only 3 Easters have been 100% dry over the past 10 years (2002,2009, & 2012) and the years of 2004, 2007, 2008, 2010 have picked up trace amounts of precipitation. The other 4 went down as the wettest of them. 0.20" of rain was recorded in 2003 and 2011. In 2005, we picked up 0.04" but 0.28" in 2006. Here's a look at the temperature history and a few weather extremes.
MONDAY
April weather for the start of April? Yeah, thats a good Aprils Fool Day joke there. In fact, we could be talking one of the Coldest opens to a April in 21 years when we hit a high of 39° in 1992. In A strong cold front comes in late Sunday overnight which results in falling temperatures on Monday. Any available moisture can generate a few snowflakes. We will be dealing with a much colder day. Highs will likely occur at midnight in the mid 40s. We'll slip back into the mid 30s Monday morning and likely either remain steady or warm up a few degrees only into the upper 30s. Snowfall accumulations, at this distance, can be possible of perhaps a half inch to an inch in some locations.
TUESDAY
Snowfall comes to end. Will be a cold morning with temperatures back in the mid 20s, but under the right amount of afternoon sunshine we'll get up to about the low 40s.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
We'll get back into a warming trend again. Upper 40s to near 50s for Wednesday but 50° warmth will certainly be possible for Thursday and Friday.
I took these from this mornings European model run which has dropped a little bit this evening. Anyways, here's a look at next Friday...maybe. As you can see mild air bathes much of the Midwest Region. 60s will be possible on this day.
And here's next Saturday...maybe. As you can see we are still rather mild, actually a few degree warmer with temps in the mid 60s! 70s will be possible in the Tri-State Areas for parts like Evansville, Indiana, Harrisburg, Illinois and Owensboro, Kentucky. Basically those in Eastern Kentucky, Southwest Indiana, and Southern Illinois including St. Louis Missouri will all see 70s next Saturday from what I can see at this distance. Will update in changes that develop.
This week has been set aside to prepare everyone for severe weather season. May not seem like it now but that time has come. Wednesday was the testing of tornado sirens and a time for tornado drills. It was time to test out and implement your evacuations plans. WHAT WOULD YOU HAVE DONE IF THIS WAS A REAL TORNADO?
1. Emergency Plan:Get with all the members of your household and come up with plan as to where everyone will go when either a Severe T'Storm or Tornado Watches or Warnings are issued. This could also mean evacuation. It could be possible that your living conditions may not make suitable for a safe location. Its not best to be on the roads during these times but may be a relative with lets say a basement could make better conditions to keep your family safe. Gather up over there, and make sure everyone is accounted for. This is one way that help save you and/or your family's life.
2. Weather Radio:It is recommended that you get a radio that will sound off an alarm when severe weather is in the area. You will be able to take heed of watches and warnings and quickly respond by initiating your Emergency Plan you and your family have in place. You can buy these from stores, online, or even download apps on iPhone from iTunes or on your Android smartphone devices via Android Market. (Click Link That Applies to you).
3. TAKING ACTION ON THE ROADS: If you are on the road driving, it is a MUST, THAT YOU NEVER PARK UNDER A OVERPASS OR BRIDGE! If a Tornado is present DO NOT TRY TO OUTDRIVE IT! The best you can do is pull over and take shelter in a nearby building or lie down in ditch, or a low lying area.
4. Preparation: Gather up a Severe Weather Emergency Kit. You can use this in case of a power outage. Batteries, Flashlighs, Clean Clothes, Blankets, Dry Food & Water for atleast 3 days are a few things you can put in there. If you do not have a car charger, GET ONE! You can use your car's cigarette lighter to recharge your phone's battery. Some cases could leave your homes power out for days or weeks. Make sure you have what you need to get you through this time.
Tornadoes can occur year round but are most likely from April to June. Preferred hours are from 3PM-8PM with a second peak from 12AM to 3AM. Following these simple tips can save your life. There are other tips that are available, not included above, that you can follow. Stay away from glass windows and remain calm helps. In the case where lightning is present, go inside. A tip from the NOAA campaign, "WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS". Summer is typically peak season for lightning. I'll go more into detail on that later. By the way Lightning Safety Awareness Week will occur June 23-29, 2013. Quick Fact: 28 people were killed by lightning last year. For other tips on survival or tips on how you can help during a severe weather crisis click HERE!
Before I show you my 7 day that I usually share at the end of each blog, I have a few other things I'd like to go over. First thing, is low temperatures. We were 5° from setting a record on March 21st when the thermometer dipped to 16. We didn't break it but Florida wasn't so lucky. Orlando broke a 58 year old record of 43° set in 1955 when the thermometer dipped to 41 this morning. Daytona Beach got down to 38, breaking a 1971 record low of 40°. Melbourne records 40 besting the 1971 record of 43°. As a nation, there were over 100 record lows set Wednesday (see image below) and over 900 record lows set this month.
I talked about the March Sunshine working on temps. How bout that snow cover?
Here in the midwest region, some states saw a half foot to a foot of snow by Tuesday Morning. This is when the snow cover was at 64.2%. That slowly decreased to 60% Wednesday and by Thursday Morning rapidly decreased to 24.9%. As a nation, the snow cover went down; 46.6% coverage Tuesday, 39.3% coverage Wednesday, and 28.1% coverage Thursday. Here's a look at the Snow Depth Coverage for Thursday, March 28th.
AVG HIGH: UPPER 50s | AVG LOWS: UPPER 30s
| MAR. 29 | MAR. 30 | MAR. 31 | APR. 1 | APR. 2 | APR. 3 | APR. 4 |
| FRIDAY | SATURDAY | EASTER | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY |
 |
|
 |
 |
 |
|
|
| PARTLY SUNNY |
PARTLY SUNNY |
AM RAIN? |
SNOW POSSIBLE |
AM FLURRIES? |
PARTLY SUNNY |
PARTLY SUNNY |
| MILD | MILD | MILD | FALLING TEMPS |
CHILLY | WARMER | MILD |
| 53 | 57 | 57 | 45↓ | 40 | 46 | 51 |
| 37 | 47 | 45 | 25 | 25 | 31 | 35 |
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