Monday, April 1, 2013

Brief Cool Down, Resurgent Warmth Coming

Today was another nice sunny day across Central Indiana! 1PM Snapshot via Weatherbug tower cam downtown.



MARCH 2013:
The month finished with an average temperature of 35.5° which was 6.7° below normal. This made this the 14th Coolest March on Record. Temperature Records date back to 1871.
Total Precipitation comes out to 1.96" which was 1.60" below normal. This went down as the 30th driest March on record. Precipitation records also date back to 1871.
Total Snowfall measures up to 14.5". This was 11.9" above normal. This made the top 5 list of most snowiest months of March on record ranked #4. Snowfall records date back to 1884. For a more comprehensive look back, the NWS has a write up on it. I provided a link below.

MARCH 2013 CENTRAL INDIANA CLIMATE SUMMARY



PAST WEEK(END)
Every day since last Tuesday has seen a high temp higher than the previous day. Monday 34, Tuesday 39, Wednesday 42, Thursday 49, Friday 56, Saturday 59, Sunday 61. This 7 day average high temp was 48°. Though that was mild it was 8° below the normal avg high temp of 56°. Just the weekend alone stirred out a 3 day avg temp of 58° which was relatively normal for the end of March. This was one of the mildest weekends the city has seen for those particular 3 days since January 11th-13th. The other 3 day mild stint (for a weekend) closest to that was Saturday, March 9th (54°), Sunday, March 10th (67°), & Monday, March 11th (59°). The 3 day average temp for this period was 60° and that was about 11° above normal. That helped the period of March 7-12th finish 1° above normal before a much colder pattern moved in. March 9-11th were 3 out of the 4 days in March to finish with above normal temperatures. The 4th day above normal was March 31st when the high reached 61 after a morning low of 43. This ended a 19 day string of below normal temperatures which started on March 12th.

TODAY
After the passage of 2 cold fronts, the temperatures this morning dropped to a low of 35°. Afternoon temperatures climbed up to a high of 46°. This was the coldest open to an April in 18 years when the thermometer reached a high of 46° in 1995. There were some snow showers to the South of Indianapolis this morning but none reported at the NWS office at Indianapolis International Airport. It was mostly a dry, sunny, and somewhat of a mild day but the winds were a little on the breezy with speeds 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 MPH. As of 7PM, the actual peak wind speed was 24 mph with a peak gust at 32 mph. No precipitation was recorded for today.

BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDS: 39 out of the past 46 days below normal

TONIGHT
Cloud Cover decreases which results in mostly clear skies. Clearing skies will be favorable for chilly temperatures. Temperatures looks to fall in the mid 20s. Coldest April night expected in 6 years since early April 2007.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY
High Pressure from the Northwest will keep the weather sunny and rain-free this week. For the first half of this week we will be below normal but on the backside of high pressure we'll be mild for the coming weekend. Highs will be in the 40s Tuesday & Wednesday but 50s for Thursday & Friday.

NEXT WEEKEND
The warming trend continues as temperatures close in on 60s! As high pressure departs though we'll add in a few rain systems too! There is a chance for rain on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at the moment. The weekend will be fairly seasonal for the first weekend of April.

NEXT WEEK
As the cold weather pattern retreats, warmer temperatures are expected to invade. However, spring storms will spin up and there is a daily chance for rain or even thunderstorms all next week. More details in the coming days.

TALKS OF WARMER WEATHER
No doubt its been cold and we've seen 14.5" of snow last month which made March 2013 the 4th snowiest on record. When does warmer air come?
You got a little taste of it this past weekend but yes more colder air has moved in for the first few days of this week.
Over the past 30 years, only 5 times has Indianapolis not seen its 1st 70 in March. The years of 1984, 1996, 1999, 2001, and 2008 didn't record its 1st 70 until April. March 2013 marked the 6th occurence for this event. Only once in the past 10 years has March not seen a 70 in March which was 2008. We usually already see our first 70 but it has yet to come. The average date for the first 70 is March 17th!
April typically sees plenty of 60s and 70s but what about 80s?
Over the past 17 years, 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000 are the last 4 years Indianapolis didn't see a 80 in April. Each April from 2001-2012 saw an 80.
So based off these statistics I say its safe to assume our chances of hitting 70s in April are very high and 80s in April is pretty common and they both are in the medium to long range forecasts. We are beginning to make the actual transition from winter to Spring.
We're not that far away from this mild air. The "Colder than Normal" pattern that has been so prevalent since after Valentines Day is a product of a Greenland Block (a bubble of warm air up North pushing colder air southbound). Late October into Early November is the last time we really saw this Greenland Block hold for such a long period of time. From October 26th-November 17th, 20 out of 23 days were below normal. From November 18th-February 14th, 61 out of 92 (66%) days were normal or above normal. Since Feb 15th only 9 days have reached 50° or higher and over the past 46 days, 9 have been normal or above normal. This means 37 days or 85% of the past 46 days have been below normal. The cooler weather actually goes farther back to September. 4 out of the past 6 months have been below normal.
The bottomline is, it was only a matter of time before the other shoe dropped from a mild Spring/Summer we had last year. Though we've had trouble shaking this recent cool pattern, it won't last mcuh longer. With a 180 degree turn in the weather pattern, odds are pretty good at hitting 70s this month and considering 2000 was the last time we failed to hit 80 in April, are chances are good at hitting 80 this month as well. The average first date for our first 80 is April 20th. I'm not going to talk 90s right now because we don't see either in March or April and its rare for most of May until the end of the month. We did however record 90° on April 24,1925 and later again on April 30th, 1942. These are the only two times 90s have been recorded in April and these are the highest temperatures ever reached for this month. The average date for our first 90 usually comes June 18th. Here's a chart of our 1st 70, 80, and 90 recorded over the past 10 years.

YEAR FIRST
70°
DATE
70°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
80°
DATE
80°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
90°
DATE
90°
TEMP
RECORDED
2012 MARCH 12 71° MARCH 14 81° MAY 26 90°
2011 MARCH 17 74° APRIL 10 83° MAY 30 90°
2010 MARCH 10 72° APRIL 1 82° JUNE 11 90°
2009 MARCH 06 70° APRIL 24 84° JUNE 19 91°
2008 APRIL 07 71° APRIL 23 82° JUNE 08 90°
2007 MARCH 14 77° MARCH 13 80° JUNE 07 90°
2006 MARCH 12 70° APRIL 13 82° JULY 02 90°
2005 MARCH 30 77° APRIL 10 80° JUNE 05 90°
2004 MARCH 24 70° APRIL 17 82° N/A N/A
2003 MARCH 16 74° APRIL 15 81° JULY 03 90°


APRIL 2013
During the month of April, the average high increases from 58° on the 1st to 68° on the 30th and the average low increases from 38° on the 1st to 48° on the 30th. The average temperature (combination of high and low) increases from 48° on the 1st to 58° on the 30th.

On average, we typical see our last freeze by April 17th.

During the month of April, we average 3.81" of precipitation and 0.2" snowfall.

During the month of April, we gain 1 hr 13 mins 45 secs of daylight.
The sun continues to rise earlier (by 42 mins) from 7:28 AM on the 1st to 6:46 AM on the 30th.
The sun continues to set later (by 29 mins) from 8:09 PM on the 1st to 8:38PM on the 30th.


CPC is predicting an equal chance for below, above or near normal temperatures and precipitation this month in Indiana.

I think we'll finish with near normal temperatures and precipitation.



***7 DAY OUTLOOK***

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING SEASONAL!
AVG HIGH: NEAR 60 | AVG LOWS: NEAR 40

APR. 1 APR. 2 APR. 3 APR. 4 APR. 5 APR. 6 APR. 7 APR. 8
TONIGHT TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY
CLEARING
SKIES
MOSTLY
SUNNY
SUNNY SUNNY PARTLY
SUNNY
POP UP
SHOWERS?
POP UP
SHOWERS?
PM
T'STORM?
COLD CHILLY WARMER MILD MILD MILD MILD MILD
NIGHT 45 48 54 57 62 67 66
25 27 31 36 40 47 48 47

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