10PM Weather Update

Good Evening! I hope you enjoyed the day today. It was a sunny but rather breezy day. The high went down as 81° at 3PM. We initially hit 80 at 1:28 PM. We did drop a degree for about a hour but went back up. The high was 20° above the normal 61. The low this morning was 56. This was rather warm, 15° above the normal 41. This put todays average temperature at 68 which was 17° above normal. This is the 4th consecutive day above normal, 4th for the month, and 8th day above normal since the start of Meteorological Spring back on March 1st. The weather pattern has begun its change and Spring has Sprung. A complete turn around over the past few days then the cold weather pattern from February 15th-April 5th. 86% of the days in this period was below normal. Since the start of Meteorological Spring, 80% of the days have been below normal while 20% of the days have been above normal. We've got another 2 days above normal which should turn to 50% of the months day above normal and 50% of the months day below normal by the end of tomorrow.

TONIGHT
We'll be under mostly cloudy skies with a strong push of a southerly air flow. The clouds & south wind will keep temps warm again and near a record too. The record for the warmest low is 61 (1922 & 2001). We are expected to only fall into the low to mid 60s. If we stay 62 or above then we will set a new record. There will be a chance for some isolated thunderstorms and the chance will increase tomorrow.

TOMORROW
We'll start the day off fairly cloudy, if we don't have any thunderstorm or shower activity but we may have some breaks in the clouds midday around 11AM or Noon that could offer up a few peaks of sunshine. Highs will be dependent on sun or no sun. We could really be anywhere from 74°-80°. *IF* we break the clouds for some sun and reach temps in the upper 70s near 80 (our convective temp) then we could destabalize the atmosphere (priming the atmosphere) for some pre-frontal supercellular thunderstorms. This could fire up as early as early rush hour, perhaps 4 or 5pm maybe 6pm at the latest going out til after sunset. Perhaps as late as 10pm or 11pm. Also dew point temps need to be above 50, particularly mid 50s. This is good moisture supply to favor some strong thunderstorms. The keyword here is *IF* so *IF* we don't break the clouds then this likely will NOT happen and we'll lose the opportunity for some pre-frontal storms. The combination has to be right for this to happen. This could be round 1 of 2 storms or we could be looking at just one storm event that comes in around midnight.
The storm that comes through around midnight is the main event. This is a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) or a squall line of thunderstorms. Check out this photo available courtesy of BAM CHASE TEAM on tomorrows storm.


Here's the Convective outlook from SPC for Wednesday. We are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday ending very early Thursday morning.

For all of your Indiana Severe Weather needs, turn to storms chasers BAM CHASE TEAM (Brian, Amanda, Michael) You can follow them on twitter @BAM_Chase and on Facebook at BAM Chase LLC. You can also visit their webpage at www.bamchase.net. You can choose to become a premium member for daily in depth forecasts & video discussions. Also Live HD video stream of chases. Cost are available on 3 different affordable payment plans. (1) $15 for 3 month subscription (2) $30 for 6 month subscription (3) $50 for yearly subscription which offers a $10 savings. For more information & registration, click HERE
They do have a partnership with the FOX 59 Weather Team so live on air updates can be expected via video and phone. You can watch FOX 59 news online, on tv, or even on your smartphones at Fox59.com

THURSDAY
A cold front passes in the morning, which severe weather will be at its highest. Once we get on the backside of the cold front temperatures will fall back. The severe weather threat will end and we'll set the stage up for a cooler but drier second half to the week which goes out to Saturday. We'll be in the mid to upper 60s around midnight Wednesday Night going into Thursday, the morning low only falls back into the low 60s and then early afternoon temps will remain fairly steady in the low 60s if not rise up a few degrees. Late Afternoon though, the temps will then begin to tank reaching low 50s after sunset and mid to upper 40s by midnight. The low is expected to fall into the upper 30s near 40 degrees.

FRIDAY
In wake of a passing cold front Thursday, temperatures to start the day will be on the chilly side in the upper 30s near 40. Temperatures don't warm too much for the day, we'll be in the mid 40s for highs. This begins a short 3 day streak of below normal temperatures.

SATURDAY
A cold push of air continues to grip the state for a second day in a row. In fact, morning temperature readings will flirt with the freeze point. Afternoon highs will struggle to top 50s!

Looking ahead to next week after a few dry days, we may again be looking at a few daily rain chances. Not exactly sure of the setup just yet. Temperatures slowly climb back up to near 70s! More updates on next weeks weather pattern to come in a future blog.


***EXCLUSIVE 8 DAY OUTLOOK***
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING SEASONAL!
AVG HIGH: 61 | AVG LOW: 41

APR. 10	APR. 11	APR. 12	APR. 13	APR. 14	APR. 15	APR. 16	APR. 17
WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY
PM T'STORM	AM T'STORMS	PARTLY SUNNY	PARTLY SUNNY	CLOUDY SOME SUN?	CHANCE OF RAIN	CHANCE OF RAIN	CHANCE OF RAIN
HALF INCH	INCH POSSIBLE	COOLER	CHILLY	WARMER	MILD	MILD	MILD
77	66↓	45	48	61	70	65	65
61	38	32	32	56	47	50	51