Wet & Warm Now, Cool & Dry Later

ACTIVE WATCHES/WARNINGS:
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1AM
TORNADO WATCH STATEMENT
FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11:30PM WEDNESDAY
FLOOD ADVISORY STATEMENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT
INDIANA FLOOD STATEMENT

**Links provided above are underlined**



TUESDAY WAS THE WETTEST DAY IN 7 MONTHS
Isolated thunderstorms have raged across the state over the past 48 hrs and the threat for more won't be over until after Friday morning.
We set a new record daily rainfall amount on Tuesday with 2.08″ in Indianapolis. The previous record was 1.53″ set in 1930. This was the most rain to fall in one day since we received the remmants of Hurricane Isaac back in early September (also record setting rainfall).
We picked up an additional 0.60" of rain today (as of 9pm) which brings the 48 hr rainfall total up to 2.68".
The total rainfall amount for the month is 3.64". So far the month is 1.55" above normal to date.
We should be sitting at 2.09" right now.
The average precipitation amount for the entire month of April is 3.81". We are only 0.17" away from that.
With more rain chances over the next 10 days, its a definite that we'll finish the month with above normal precipitation.
Taking a look back to April 1st, I had predicted this month would finish with near normal precipitation.



APRIL 2013 COMES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT THE LATE WINTER CHILL REMAINS
We've seen some our warmest temps for the year so far within the past 10 days but we're still talking freezing lows. More details later in the blog. Here's a look back at the weather observations this month.

	APR 1	APR 2	APR 3	APR 4	APR 5	APR 6	APR 7	APR 8	APR 9	APR 10	APR 11	APR 12	APR 13	APR 14	APR 15	APR 16	APR 17
HIGHS	46	45	48	57	59	71	74	74	81	82	66	46	52	72	70	65	74
LOWS	29	24	25	34	34	39	56	56	56	58	45	37	40	39	54	49	48
PRECIP	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	TRACE	NONE	0.05"	0.91"	TRACE	NONE	TRACE	TRACE	2.08"(R)	0.60"

I've updated the seasons first 70s, 80s, and 90s chart to include this year. Here's an 11 year history from 2002-2013.

YEAR	FIRST 70° DATE	70° TEMP RECORDED	FIRST 80° DATE	80° TEMP RECORDED	FIRST 90° DATE	90° TEMP RECORDED
2013	APRIL 06	71°	APRIL 09	81°	N/A	N/A
2012	MARCH 12	71°	MARCH 14	81°	MAY 26	90°
2011	MARCH 17	74°	APRIL 10	83°	MAY 30	90°
2010	MARCH 10	72°	APRIL 1	82°	JUNE 11	90°
2009	MARCH 06	70°	APRIL 24	84°	JUNE 19	91°
2008	APRIL 07	71°	APRIL 23	82°	JUNE 08	90°
2007	MARCH 14	77°	MARCH 13	80°	JUNE 07	90°
2006	MARCH 12	70°	APRIL 13	82°	JULY 02	90°
2005	MARCH 30	77°	APRIL 10	80°	JUNE 05	90°
2004	MARCH 24	70°	APRIL 17	82°	N/A	N/A
2003	MARCH 16	74°	APRIL 15	81°	JULY 03	90°

SKYWATCH
Some skygazers were able to get a spectacular view of the Northern Lights on Saturday night especially those in some of the northern states while others were rather disappointed. A little clearer earlier for us in the day had us bummed when cloud cover moved in. Our chances was rather low to begin with since the CME impact was rather weak. The coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on April 13th around 22:55 UT (thats nearly 7pm Indy time). Those in places North like Minnesota and Michigan were probably able to get the best views across the U.S., others again not so lucky. Though I did see some other images around the web, one person in New Jersey took a snapshot of what looked like a green UFO, perhaps a tiny glimpse of the aurora. The next sky event will be the annual Lyrid Meteor Showers next weekend. View will be rather limited though with the glare from the moon that will be 87% full. Its possible though, for those away from city lights to catch a glimpse with rate 20 meteors per hour which looks to be best viewable on early Monday morning on April 22nd. Some may even get a glimpse on Sunday Morning the 21st. Our conditions will be clear for Sunday Morning but cloudy for Monday Morning.
By the way, the April moon will be 100% full on April 25th. This moon is called the Full Pink Moon which deals with spring flowers, herb moss pink (wild ground phlox). Other names given to this moon are Flower Moon, Fish Moon, Sprouting Grass Moon, Planters Moon, and Egg Moon.
The April Moon typically marks the time for most cities last frost/freeze. In Indianapolis, the average date for our last freeze is April 17th. Over the past 15 years, our last freeze has primarily occurred mid to late April. Here's a 15 year history:

1998: March 24th-27°
1999: March 28th-31°
2000: April 12th-29°
2001: April 18th-26°
2002: May 19th-32°
2003: April 23rd-29°
2004: April 14th-30°
2005: May 3rd-29°
2006: April 9th-32°
2007: April 13th-31°

2008-2012 last freeze dates found in image to the left.

As you can see we had 2 last freezes as early as late March but as late as May 19th (over these past 15 years)



TONIGHT
The threat for more isolated showers/storms still exist but it looks to remain to the North of the city. Most of the Central Indiana should remain rain free throughout the overnight hours, though I'm not completely ruling the possibility we won't see something pop up. With added clouds in the sky, this will help keep temps overnight rather mild. We should only climb back to the mid 60s, if not the lower 60s.


JUNE-LIKE WARMTH THURSDAY ENDS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, FALLING TEMPS FRIDAY
In wake of a warm front that lifted through Wednesday, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s.

A combination of the right ingredients is expected to stir up some severe thunderstorms. Here's the convective outlook issued from SPC. Yes, we are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging straight line winds (#1 top concern), heavy downpours (flooding is another concern), large hail, vivid lightning, and isolated tornadoes (with an ability to possibly be long-track). There was an upgrade earlier today for some parts now in a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms as well. This encompasses the western half of Indiana.
What does this mean? Those in the red section are expected to get storms of greater concentration than those highlighted in yellow. That basically means more intense storms.

The best opportunity for these severe storms looked to moved through sometime after the noon hour which looks to reach the city of Indianapolis by about 2/3pm and ending anywhere between 2am-5am.
Rainfall potential:
21 Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members avg out 1.24". 12z European model run spits out 1.08", 18z GFS says 1.44", and 18z NAM says 0.98". So really anywhere from 1"-1.50" of rain can fall with some spots receiving more under a heavy downpour. The general range for the state is 1"-3". These values are only valid from 4PM Thursday-Midnight Friday Night. This does NOT include any shower or storm activity that may be present until then.
With the threat of these storms will come the passing of a cold front with much chiller air behind it. We'll go from the the 60s around midnight down to the 40s by the afternoon. Its possible to even see a few snowflakes as well. Temps will continue to drop into the low to mid 30s for Saturday Morning lows.




PLEASANT WEATHER MOVES IN OVER WEEKEND
We will get plenty of sunshine for the coming weekend with plenty of dry weather. It will be a cool Saturday but a warm up returns for Sunday & Mondays temperatures. We'll only top 50 on Saturday, but we'll get back to low 60s Sunday and perhaps near 70 on Monday.



MORE RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
Our next rain chance comes in on Monday. Another shot of cool air moves back in and we are looking at a rather "below normal weather pattern" for next week. Mondays highs again near 70s fall back into the mid 50s for the rest of the week. Looking at the earliest rainfall potential for next Mondays system, 18z GFS spits out 0.25". Another rain system looks to come in late Tuesday Afternoon lingering into Wednesday which packs a punch. This supposedly has the potential to drop another band of 1"-3" of rain. 18z GFS says 2.80". More details on this later in the coming days.



When it comes to severe weather in Indiana follow BAM CHASE TEAM. They are the FOX59 Weather Authority Storm Chasers. In addition, you can follow the FOX 59 Weather Authority Team:
(1) Weekday Evening Chief Meteorologist Brian Wilkes:
Facebook Link | Twitter Link
(2) Weekday Morning Meteorologist Jim O'Brien:
Facebook Link | Twitter Link
(3) Weekday & Weekend Evening Meteorologist Jennifer Ketchmark:
Facebook Link | Twitter Link
(4) Weekday & Weekend Morning Meteorologist Ron Smiley:
Facebook Link | Twitter Link
You can watch Fox 59 News online and on your smartphone devices at FOX59.com
Here's a look at the schedule:
Saturday & Sunday: Morning News 6AM-10AM & News at 10 until 10:30PM
Monday-Friday: Morning News 4AM-10AM, Afternoon/Evening 4PM-7PM, News at 10 until 11PM (until 10:30pm on Fridays)
Fox 59 Indianapolis, IN has 60 hrs of news coverage every week. One of the leading news coverage stations in the nation.


BAM Chase does daily in-depth video forecast discussions for both short range and medium range (available to subscribed users only also referred to as premium clients/members). They also do a live Q&A weather session online every Tuesday at 8pm (available to all). Any weather related questions you have they will answer. They do a 5 day extended forecast for non premium users and 10 day for premium users. Non premium users will also be able to see facebook and twitter updates as long as you "LIKE" them (FB) or follow them (twitter). Content is limited for non premium users.
Premium users get an ALL ACCESS PASS to everything being offered. They get:
-Live HD Commercial Free Video Stream from the chase
-Live HD stream includes 6 different camera angles from their state of the art HD camera system
-Chase discussion of where and when they are chasing prior to the event
-Audio and live feedback from the chase team while chasing the storm
-In-Depth analysis of what they are seeing with demonstration
-In-Depth Medium to Long Range Forecast Discussion explaining what they are seeing and why
-Daily Risk Assesment Chart outlining severe weather threats (i.e. tornado, hail, etc)
-Model Matrix outlining various computer models numbers of rainfall within a 3 day and 7 day time period
-10 Day Extended Forecast
-And other added content that may be added in the future


For those wanting to become a premium user/client,
cost are available on 3 different affordable payment plans.
(1) $15 for 3 month subscription
(2) $30 for 6 month subscription
(3) $50 for yearly subscription which offers a $10 savings.
BAM has now added a 14 Day Free Trial Period for those who want to see what this is all about. Once your trial has expired your premium access will be revoked. If you choose, you can sign up for one of the 3 payment plans listed above. If you choose to pay for a yearly subscription, your expired free trial will come with a bonus. You will be able to get 10% off, meaning you will now pay $45 for your years subscription, which is actually a $15 savings!

I have personally followed BAM Chase for 2 years and they do a tremendous job. As a weather geek, I've actually learned a lot myself from them. They put in countless hours to ensure that Hoosiers have the most accurate forecasts and it is their duty for everyone to see the great work they do and to know that there is one reliable weather source out there you can always count on that never fails. Weather is a tough business to get in to, believe it or not. The constant changes in the weather pattern can warrant false forecasts and you won't find one weather source out there in the entire world, regardless of expertise, that can accurately predict whats coming our way. With that being said, yes, BAM gets it wrong sometimes but I can say with 100% certainty that BAM gets it right 99.9% of the time!
So like them here on Facebook, follow them on twitter @BAM_Chase, and register online at www.bamchase.net Thanks for taking the time to read this. Last thing, I have copy and pasted their mission statement below.

MISSION STATEMENT: Our mission is to do the best we can to inform people of possible weather situations in their area. Also to gather video and photos of storms and/or the damage they may cause to help better understand how storms and tornadoes develop. We also will post local weather forecasts and major pattern changes throughout the country. We will blog about the weather and give our input.



SURVIVING THE STORM
I'll keep this simple, PLEASE Be Safe! When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! When you see a flooded road, turn around don't drown. When a tornado is present and your driving on the road do not try to outrun it and DON'T USE OVERPASSES AS A TORNADO SHELTER! Lie down in a low laying ditch or lowest point you can find. Simple tips to keep you safe. Know your family's emergency plan. You may be put in a real life situation now that severe weather season has arrived. Do you have a safety kit?

SPECIAL SEVERE WEATHER LINKS:
NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center Homepage
Tornado Safety
Lightning Safety
Severe Weather Awareness-Back to the Basics here. Everything else you need to know about severe weather and how to stay safe can be found at this link. Don't forget your weather radio or weather apps for your smartphone devices. Have a car phone charger in handy.



***8 DAY OUTLOOK***

APR. 18	APR. 19	APR. 20	APR. 21	APR. 22	APR. 23	APR. 24	APR. 25
THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY
SEVERE T'STORMS	AM-RAIN? PM-SNOW?	SUNNY	SUNNY	PM RAIN?	RAIN LIKELY	RAIN LIKELY	PARTLY SUNNY
WINDY	FALLING TEMPS	COOL	WARMER	AM-DRY PM-WET	WET DAY	WET DAY	COOL
78	40s	52	60	66	57	50	52
40	33	36	48	53	48	33	37