April 28th-May 4th Central Indiana Post Forecast Analysis

I wanted to take a minute to talk about this week. Bare with me, lots to cover here. It was one of the worst most hardest week to forecast. Models did poorly with the temps. It did pick up on the upper low system over a week ago but the hardest part was determining where it would set up. This would have played a huge role on whether our temps would be up or would be down. Unfortunately, since it positioned itself west of Indiana, this meant temps were UP! To start off, I favored a cooler solution and stuck with it but each day models became to come in warmer, and warmer. I told you guys I would probably continue to make constant changes in my outlook and I've outlined it in the table. On April 20th, I forecasted a high of 53 for April 28th but when the morning came my forecast had changed to 61. The actual high did go down as 61.

On April 21st, I forecasted 64 for April 29th but by the 29th I went 71. The actual high was 68. I gotta say models probably handled this day the best, even though it was 3 degrees too warm. At one point I went 67 on the 27th. You can see that highlighted in yellow.

Why did I highlight certain numbers?
I talked about this several times, the most accurate forecasts are within a 72 hr time period. Odds on a accurate forecast are slim to none more than 3 days in advance. I like the first one here, On the 26th I was going 60 for the 28th, On the 27th & 28th I went 61 for the 28th and NAILED IT! But you saw I previously went 53 on the 20th (liked I mentioned earlier) and this was 8 days out...not very trustworthy there.

The problem was...not even the models had a clue as to where the low would exactly set up at and can really set up any way it wants. Those that got underneath the low's system got plenty of rainfall, cold temps, and SNOW! Had that low made its way closer to Indy we would have gotten perhaps a few inches of snow and a morning freeze this morning like I thought we would back on April 27th. That completely flipped.

A week out, my forecasted highs were off by about 20 degrees but I gotta tell you, once I got within that 3 day window, I was within 5 degrees of the actual highs. The bottomline here is sometimes the weatherman gets it wrong and this was one of those weeks. Its impossible for ANY METEOROLOGIST to try to accurately predict the weathers forecast a week or more in advance. In fact, the weathermans forecasts are forecasted off of what computer weather models forecast. Regardless to what these weather models forecasts are forecasting, these weather systems have a mind of its own and can either weaken as it travels its path or deviate from where the models have planned or rather think the route the storm may take. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION...this people is what determines what happens. If the storm system is 200 miles away, the weaker it will be for us but what do you think will happen if its 20 miles away? Nobody can say with 100% certainty where these storms will be located at a specific time and date particularly more than 3 days in advance. This is the "simplified version for dummies" why the forecast was so off this week!

	APR 20	APR 21	APR 22	APR 23	APR 24	APR 25	APR 26	APR 27	APR 28	APR 29	APR 30	MAY 1	MAY 2	MAY 3	MAY 4	ACTUAL HIGHS
APR 28	53	70	73	68	64	64	60	61	61	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	61
APR 29	N/A	64	67	70	70	70	70	67	71	71	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	68
APR 30	N/A	N/A	65	65	73	74	73	74	77	77	79	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	79
MAY 1	N/A	N/A	N/A	61	69	69	75	77	79	79	82	82	N/A	N/A	N/A	81
MAY 2	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	56	50	61	62	74	73	74	75	76	N/A	N/A	76
MAY 3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	55	47	46	63	63	65	68	70	70	N/A	73
MAY 4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	56	50	57	57	58	59	59	60	63	67