Indianapolis Has Warmest Open to May in 6 Years

Welcome to May!


Its typically a wet one. We average 5.05" this month and last years we opened with 1.48". Today will the driest May in 5 years and the warmest since 83° in 2007.


Here's some more numbers;
(1) Only 4 out of the past 18 years have opened up dry.
(2) There's only been 6 times over the past 60 years with temps 80+
(3) There has been 11 times in the past 30 years where temps went down 70+
(4) 18 out of the past 30 have opened up wet
(5) There was a freeze in 2005!
(6) Trace Amounts of Snow fell in 1909



May 2012 was a start to a dry pattern. We did have 1.48" on the 1st but the total rainfall finished at 2.40". The rain was only spread (actually scrunched) into 7 days out the month. May 2012 finished as the 5th warmest and 42nd driest May on record. Nice graphic to the left that shows a month to month breakdown of rainfall over May 1st-July 31st. The graphic is available courtesy of Fox 59 Meteorologist Ron Smiley.
You can follow Ron on twitter @Fox59Smiley or you can "Like" his Facebook Page. Here's the the Facebook Link
You can catch Ron Smiley's forecast on some weekday mornings starting at 4AM or on weekends (Saturday & Sunday) on the 6AM-10AM morning broadcasts. He also does a feature called Handy Homeowner, giving you tips for home improvement. This feature is brought to you by Unique Home Solutions.


A LOOK BACK AT APRIL
April 2013 was filled with lots of twists and turns and we were able to see a mixed bag of everything. Severe Weather, Lots of Rain & Cool Days, Lots of Sunshine & Warms Days, and some windy days with even trace amounts of snow! Here's the chart of observations for last month.

DATE OF MONTH	HIGH TEMP	HIGH TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	LOW TEMP	LOW TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	AVG TEMP	AVG TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	PRECIP	SNOW
April 1	46	-12	29	-9	38	-10	NONE	NONE
April 2	45	-14	24	-14	35	-13	NONE	NONE
April 3	48	-11	25	-14	37	-12	NONE	NONE
April 4	57	-2	34	-5	46	-3	NONE	NONE
April 5	59	-1	34	-5	47	-3	NONE	NONE
April 6	71	+11	39	-1	55	+5	NONE	NONE
April 7	74	+13	56	+16	65	+15	NONE	NONE
April 8	74	+13	56	+16	65	+15	TRACE	NONE
April 9	81	+20	56	+15	69	+18	NONE	NONE
April 10	82	+20	58	+17	70	+19	0.05	NONE
April 11	66	+4	45	+4	56	+4	0.91	NONE
April 12	46	-16	37	-5	42	-10	TRACE	NONE
April 13	52	-11	40	-2	46	-6	NONE	NONE
April 14	72	+9	39	-3	56	+3	TRACE	NONE
April 15	70	+7	54	+11	62	+9	TRACE	NONE
April 16	65	+1	49	+6	57	+4	2.08R	NONE
April 17	74	+10	48	+5	61	+7	0.61	NONE
April 18	77	+13	49	+5	63	+9	2.29R	NONE
April 19	49	-16	36	-8	43	-11	0.61	TRACE
April 20	48	-17	30	-14	39	-16	NONE	NONE
April 21	55	-10	33	-12	44	-11	NONE	NONE
April 22	67	+1	38	-7	53	-2	NONE	NONE
April 23	66	0	51	+6	59	+3	0.91	NONE
April 24	56	-10	36	-10	46	-10	0.77	NONE
April 25	55	-12	33	-13	44	-12	NONE	NONE
April 26	62	-5	37	-9	50	-6	NONE	NONE
April 27	62	-5	43	-4	53	-4	0.05	NONE
April 28	61	-7	53	+6	57	0	0.31	NONE
April 29	68	0	52	+5	60	+2	TRACE	NONE
April 30	79	+11	51	+3	65	+7	NONE	NONE

NOTES: Record Rainfall set for the 16th & 18th. Record Event Report Below.

TEMPERATURES
HIGHS:
We recorded 5 days with highs in the 40s, 6 in the 50s, 8 in the 60s, 8 in the 70s, and 2 in the 80s.
The highest high temperature for the month was 82° recorded on the 10th.
The lowest high temperature for the month was 45° recorded on 2nd.
The average high for the month was 62.9°. This was 0.5° below the normal 63.4°.
LOWS:
We recorded 3 days with lows in the 20s, 12 in the 30s, 6 in the 40s, and 9 in the 50s.
The highest low temperature for the month was 58° recorded on the 10th.
The lowest low temperature for the month was 24° recorded on the 2nd.
The average low for the month was 42.2°. This was 0.5° below the normal 42°.
TEMPERATURE SUMMARY
As the blocking pattern continued for the first few days of the month it was one of the coolest opens we had in 20 years. That cold spell that gripped much of the Eastern half of nation, which started after Valentine's day began to fade by Day 6. The warmth was allowed to bathe the state for a good week which stirred up our first 70 and 80° temperature readings for the year. An active weather pattern allowed shots of cold air to come through which limited the warmth mid month continuing towards nearly the end of the month. A bubble of warm air in the midwest region returned to finish the last few days of April that lead to a 79° high temperature reading on the 30th. This temperature reading was the warmest since 80s on the 10th.
The average temp (combo of high and low) was 52.5°. This was 0.5° below the normal 53°.
APRIL 2013 FINISHED AS THE 74th COOLEST APRIL ON RECORD

PRECIPITATION
The total precipitation for the month was 8.59". This was 4.78" above the normal April amount of 3.81".
APRIL 2013 FINISHES AS THE 2nd WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD: This was 0.01" shy from tying the 120 year old record rainfall amount of 8.60" for the entire month of April set in 1893 (#1 Wettest April)
TOP 3 WETTEST APRILS:
(1) 8.60"-1893 (2) 8.59"-2013 (3)8.55"-1922
A rainy wet April led to floodings in parts of Indiana, especially to the East. If you haven't done so you can still read the NWS write up on the flooding rains that even lead to two record rainfall events in Indianapolis. Click HERE for more details. I've also write up my own blog on the record rainfall back on the 19th. If you would like to read that then you can click HERE for more information.
Here's a snapshot of the Record Event Report (RER) for the rainfall.



The NWS Indianapolis, Indiana has a write up on the Central Indiana Climate Summary for April 2013. If you'd like to read it you can copy & paste or click the url address below.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=94352&source=0


MAY 2013:
During the month of May, the average high increases from 68° on the 1st to 77° on the 30th and the average low increases from 48° on the 1st to 58° on the 30th. The average temperature (combination of high and low) increases from 58° on the 1st to 67° on the 30th.
Its rare but uncommon to have a freeze in May. Typically, the April Full Moon usually marks the time for most cities in the nation to have recorded their last freeze. So far, the last freeze date for Indianapolis this year is April 20th. Good chance, if we don't see a freeze this month then this will remain as an official date for the last spring freeze of 2013.
Here's a look at the top 5 warmest May's on record. These are average temperatures, which is a combination of all the months daily high and low temperatures:
(1) 1896: 70.7°
(2) 1882: 70.6°
(3) 1881: 69.8°
(4) 1962: 69.1°
(5) 2012: 68.8°
NOTE: May 2012, last year, is tied with the year 1918 as the 5th warmest May on record. All but 2 days had highs with temps 70+.

The highest high temperature ever recorded for the month of May is 96° with multiple occurrences.
The lowest high temperature ever recorded for the month of May is 40° with multiple occurrences between the 1st and 2nd.
The lowest low temperature ever recorded for the month of May is 28° on May 10, 1966.
The highest low temperature ever recorded for the month of May is 76° on May 25, 1871.
Here's a look at the top 5 coolest May's on record.
(1) 1924: 55.9°
(2) 1917: 56°
(3) 1945: 56.4°
(4) 1961: 56.4°
(5) 1997: 56.7°

During the month of May, we average 5.05" of precipitation.
The wettest May on record is 10.10" set in 1943, while the driest is 0.60" set in 1932 and later tied in 1934.
The wettest Day in May was recorded in 2004 when 3.80" of rain fell on May 30th.

Believe it or not we do average trace amounts of snowfall.
The most snowiest May on record was recorded in 1897 when a total of 2.4" fell down for the month on May 2nd. This was the most snowiest day in May and the only day in May 1897 to record measurable snowfall (0.1" or higher).
Other snowiest Mays are;

• 1923: A record 0.3" of snow fell on May 8th and a record 0.9" of snow fell on May 9th which brings a a two snowfall total to 1.2". This is the only measurable snow amount recorded for the month in this year. 1.2" is the second total most snowfall to ever be recorded for the month.
• May 1929 and May 1989 both recorded 0.2" of snow total for the month. In May 1929, 0.2" fell on the 2nd bringing the total to a record snow depth of 1". In May 1989, 0.2" of snow fell on the 6th which set a record for the date.
• There are 12 Snow Events where trace amounts were recorded for other other days in the month:
  (1) May 1, 1909 (2) May 3, 1954 (3) May 4, 1917 (4) May 5, 1917 (5) May 7, 1989 (6) May 7, 2002
  (7) May 11, 1952 (8) May 11, 1966 (9) May 14, 1991 (10) May 20, 1894 (11) May 27, 2001 (12) May 31, 1954

During the month of May, we gain 53 minutes of daylight.
The sun continues to rise earlier (by 26 mins) from 6:45 AM on the 1st to 6:19 AM on the 31st.
The sun continues to set later (by 27 mins) from 8:39 PM on the 1st to 9:06 PM on the 31st.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has revised their outlook for May 2013. I will go over that later in the blog and share my thoughs.


TODAY
Plenty of sunshine today w/ highs in the 80s. We started off with a low 7AM low of 56°. Temperatures steadily climbed reaching 70s at 10am and then 80s before 3pm. The official high went down as 81°. This was 13° above the normal 68.

TONIGHT
Some clouds will start to slowly filter in but skies should remain fairly clear. It will be a mild night with temperatures in the lower 60s.

THURSDAY
Tomorrow we'll be under plenty of sunshine with added high clouds. There is 10% chance for some showers. Otherwise, it will be another dry day across the state. Temperatures will still be on the mild side with highs in the middle to upper 70s.

UPCOMING....
Over the past few week there was a major modeling problem. The runs were not in agreement and made the forecast very challenging to make out for the coming weekend and next week. Still a few adjustments need to be made but it appears there is a general idea of what the weather pattern holds as we kick of May going out to mid month.
First off, the mild weather we are experiencing now will pullback and cooler temperatures will come back thanks to a cut off low. This upper low will move into the midwest region and what that will do is bring in rain chances for the weekend and again, cooler temperatures. The low won't exactly move west to east quickly but likely wobble over Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Illinois. This will be a zone for flooding rains. As for Indiana, again, western parts of Indiana will likely get the brunt of this storm system. We will likely get to hold onto the warmth for another day or two and remain fairly dry, but likely by Saturday morning as the low continues to creep into Indiana the rain chances will ramp up. Saturday, Sunday, and even Monday looks rather wet. Here's a look at rain totals by Tuesday Morning off the 12z European Model run suggesting up to 1-1.25" in Indianapolis but those in areas like Terre Haute could see up to 2". As you can see, Illinois is the biggest focus for rain where some areas could possibly see up to 4 or even 5" of rain.



Beyond the weekend, temperatures still appear sketchy but overall, will likely be below normal for the first half of the month. We'll see plenty of warm days mixed in too. Low 70s are average temps for the first half of the month. As for rain, it doesn't appear to be going anywhere. Here's a look at this evenings GFS model run going out 2.5 weeks. Look at Illinois, perhaps up to 10" of rain. Maybe up to 5" for Central Indiana. These aren't final total numbers and I'm not saying this is what we'll see. This is just an illustration to show the weathers potential after looking at today's run.



Back in March, there was some comparisons between 2013 and 1996. March and April of both years were fairly similar and now we are starting to look at May. Will the trend continue? Here's the breakdown.

MONTH/YEAR	AVG TEMP	TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	TOTAL PRECIPITATION	PRECIP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	TOTAL SNOWFALL	SNOWFALL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
MARCH 1996	35.6	-5.8	3.51	-0.28	12.5	+9.9
MARCH 2013	35.5	-6.7	1.96	-1.60	14.5	+11.9
APRIL 1996	49.3	-3.1	7.02	+3.32	TRACE	-0.2
APRIL 2013	52.5	-0.5	8.59	+4.78	TRACE	-0.2
MAY 1996	61.9	-0.9	8.89	+4.89	0.0	0.0
MAY 2013	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

You can see both months of March picked up over a foot of snow and finished with below normal temperatures. In April, both finished will below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall. In May 1996, temperatures finished below normal but precipitation was well above normal. April and May of 1996 finished with a combined precipitation total of 15.91". This was 8.21" above the normal 7.7". Some adjustments in average rainfall amounts have been made since then. The average precipitation amount for April and May of 2013 is now 8.86". So far, we have 8.59". We'll see how everything goes this month. I will update the table throughout the month in future blogs.


Back on April 18th, CPC issued its climate outlook for May. They were calling for an equal chance of above, below, or near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. That has now been revised with recent developments in the weather pattern. Given the trend in modeling data, the prediction was premature. Since the weather pattern for the entire month isn't exactly clear, they are now calling for an Equal Chance of Above, Below, or Near Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.


MY TAKE:
Week 1-Below Normal Temperatures, Above Normal Precipitation
Week 2-Below Normal Temperatures, Above Normal Precipitation
Week 3-Equal Chance of Above, Near, or Below Normal Temperatures & Precipitation
Week 4-Equal Chance of Above, Near, or Below Normal Temperatures & Precipitation
Overall, I believe we'll finish with slightly below or near temperatures and Near Normal to possibly Above Normal Precipitation.

***8 DAY OUTLOOK***
 THURSDAY'S AVG HIGH: 68° | THURSDAY'S AVG LOW: 48°| SUNRISE: 6:44AM | SUNSET: 8:41PM
 TONIGHT: Mostly Clear & Mild. Low 61.TOMORROW:Partly Cloudy. Mild High 75.

MAY 3	MAY 4	MAY 5	MAY 6	MAY 7	MAY 8	MAY 9	MAY 10
FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY
PM-T'STORM POSSIBLE	SHOWERS LIKELY	SHOWERS LIKELY	SHOWERS LIKELY	CLOUDY SOME SUN?	PARTLY SUNNY	AM-SUN? PM-T'STORM?	SHOWERS LIKELY
DRY EARLY	WET FOR MINI MARATHON	COLD RAIN	WET DAY	WARMER	MILD	DRY EARLY	WET DAY
68	59	51	59	68	70	72	69
56	45	45	49	54	58	56	51