Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Storm Chances Continues

Hot, stormy week continues but relief is in sight
Yesterday marked the 16th day & 9th consecutive day this month with a high temperature 80+. We have not hit 90s yet this year. We are getting there but we are coming up short especially with these storm chances around. We hit 88° on June 12th & 21st but went as high as 89° on June 22nd & 25th. Its been 304 days since our last 90 when we hit 92° on August 25th last year. The average date for our first 90 is June 19th. Here's a look at first 90° dates for other years along with a look back at first 70° & 80° dates since 2003.

YEAR FIRST
70°
DATE
70°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
80°
DATE
80°
TEMP
RECORDED
FIRST
90°
DATE
90°
TEMP
RECORDED
2013 APRIL 06 71° APRIL 09 81° ???? ????
2012 MARCH 12 71° MARCH 14 81° MAY 26 90°
2011 MARCH 17 74° APRIL 10 83° MAY 30 90°
2010 MARCH 10 72° APRIL 1 82° JUNE 11 90°
2009 MARCH 06 70° APRIL 24 84° JUNE 19 91°
2008 APRIL 07 71° APRIL 23 82° JUNE 08 90°
2007 MARCH 14 77° MARCH 13 80° JUNE 07 90°
2006 MARCH 12 70° APRIL 13 82° JULY 02 90°
2005 MARCH 30 77° APRIL 10 80° JUNE 05 90°
2004 MARCH 24 70° APRIL 17 82° N/A N/A
2003 MARCH 16 74° APRIL 15 81° JULY 03 90°


There's been 10 (out of 25) days this month with either a trace or measurable precipitation recorded. The month's total rainfall through June 25th is up to 3.15". The normal amount is 3.54", so the month is running 0.39" below normal. With 1.43", we did have our wettest day on Sunday since mid April when 2.29" was recorded on April 18th. The second to that was 1.08" back on May 8th. Here's a look at total precipitation numbers around the state. Most areas are still doing well for the year. Need to watch Shelbyville area. They need a lot of rain. They are over 7" behind on rain this year.

LOCATION YEAR TO
DATE
PRECIP

(thru June 25th)
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
PRECIP
SINCE
JUNE 1
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
MONTH
TO
DATE
PRECIP
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
BLOOMINGTON 22.80 -1.13 3.79 -0.25 3.79 -0.25
EVANSVILLE 29.05 +5.58 6.50 +3.27 6.50 +3.27
FT. WAYNE 20.73 +2.37 3.06 -0.50 3.06 -0.50
INDIANAPOLIS 24.98 +4.04 3.15 -0.39 3.15 -0.39
INDIANAPOLIS
EAGLE CREEK
22.84 +2.33 4.00 +0.30 4.00 +0.30
LAFAYETTE 21.33 +3.89 2.71 -0.71 2.71 -0.71
MUNCIE 20.04 +0.58 4.23 +0.34 4.23 +0.34
SHELBYVILLE 14.31 -7.23 2.00 -1.76 2.00 -1.76
SOUTH BEND 20.08 +3.14 2.78 -0.44 2.78 -0.44
TERRE HAUTE 26.99 +4.81 5.96 +2.22 5.96 +2.22

Looking at the latest week crop progress. 100% of the corn has been planted and emerged while 96% of the Soybeans have been planted with 90% emerged. 76% of the corn's condition is either good or excellent while 72% of the soybeans are in good or excellent condition. Here's a look back at the weekly progress since early April.

2013 APR 7 APR 21 APR 28 MAY 5 MAY 12 MAY 19 MAY 26 JUN 2 JUN 9 JUN 16 JUN 23 '08-'12 AVG
Corn
Planted
N/A 1% 1% 8% 30% 64% 86% 94% 98% 100% 100% N/A
Corn
Emerged
N/A 0% 0% 0% 3% 20% 56% 77% 90% 100% 100% 98%
Soybean
Planted
N/A N/A 0% 0% 6% 30% 60% 76% 87% 93% 96% 94%
Soybean
Emerged
N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% 3% 24% 48% 70% 83% 90% 86%


I'll start today's weather forecast off with a look at the Day 1 Convective Outlook where SPC has placed all of Indiana under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


The greatest threat for these storm will be damaging winds and large hail. You can also expect to see plenty of lighting and flash flooding from heavy downpours. Though the chance is low, we can't rule out the possibility of tornadoes.

How quickly will the atmosphere recover?
We did have storms last night lingering into early this morning so the atmosphere is rather stabilized. We'll need to get rid of the clouds and get some sunshine going. This will lead to hotter temperatures and the heat will rise creating an unstable environment. The greater the instability then the stronger storms will be. Again this will all be dependent on clouds. The more of it we have today then the cooler the day will be, and severe weather chances will be limited. Highs will be anywhere in between 85-90 degrees.

A dip in the jet stream will usher in cooler air. This will eliminate the severe weather but it won't necessarily get rid of the rain chances. We'll still have them around over the weekend into early next week. The cool off will be brief as we get back into some warmer temperatures just in time for the 4th of July festivities.



***8 DAY OUTLOOK

 TODAY'S AVG HIGH: 84° | WEDNESDAY'S AVG LOW: 65°| SUNRISE: 6:19AM | SUNSET: 9:17PM
 SPRING IS OVER | SUMMER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED | DAYS UNTIL AUTUMNAL (FALL) EQUINOX: 88
 DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T'STORMS BUT NOT ALL WASHOUTS. MANY MANY DRY HOURS IN BETWEEN
JUNE 26 JUNE 27 JUNE 28 JUNE 29 JUNE 30 JULY 1 JULY 2 JULY 3
TODAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY
PM STORMS
SEVERE?
SUN/STORMS
10% CHANCE
SUN/STORMS
10% CHANCE
SUN/STORMS
50% CHANCE
SUN/STORMS
50% CHANCE
SUN/STORMS
35% CHANCE
PARTLY
SUNNY
PARTLY
SUNNY
MILD MILD NOT AS
WARM
COOLER COOL AVG HIGH
85
WARMER MILD
85 85 82 76 77 78 81 84
71 69 64 62 61 62 65 66



No comments:

Post a Comment