Friday, August 2, 2013

Warm Start to August but Below Normal Weather Continues

A Few Numbers of the Year
  • 214th Day of 2013 & 151 Days Remaining
  • 63rd Day of Meteorological Summer & 29 Days Remaining
  • 43rd Day of Astronomical Summer & 51 Days Remaining
  • 104 Days Since Our Last Freeze (April 20th Low-30°)
  • 92 Days this Year w/ Temps 70+
  • 52 Days this Year w/ Temps 80+
  • 5 Days this Year w/ Temps 90+
  • 373 Days Since Our Last 100 (July 25, 2012 High-103°)
  • 82 Days This Year w/ Measurable Precipitation totaling 28.78" (109% of the normal 26.42")
  • 123 Days This Year w/ Trace or More Precipitation
  • 14 Consecutive Weekends with one or more days with Trace or More Precipitation (April 27-July 7)
  • 93 Days This Year Finished w/ Above Normal Temps
  • 11 Days This Year Finished w/ Normal Temps
  • 110 Days This Year Finished w/ Below Normal

Meteorological Summer Continues (June 1st-present)
We are now 68% of the way thru summer and the weather has been mixed. 44% of the days have been above normal and 48% below normal. 8% of the days this summer have been seasonal. We finally reached those 90s mid July but only 5 of them. The avg is 19.
The highest high temperature this summer and for the year is 93° achieved 3 times consecutively July 16-18.
The lowest high temperature this summer is 68° on June 3rd.
The lowest low temperature this summer is 48° on June 3rd.
The highest low temperature this summer is 76° achieved twice, July 9th & 19th.
As for precipitation, it has dried up some. For the year, some areas are still above normal thanks to a wet winter and spring but lately all areas around the state are below normal this summer. Typical for summer, rainfall isn't evenly distributed across the state so numbers tend to vary in Indiana. Most precipitation has fallen in the Western Half and Southern Half of the state. Eastern parts of the state have become abnormally dry and Shelbyville, Indiana is nearly 9" below normal for the year. Here's a look at the latest drought map and my updated rainfall chart.


LOCATION YEAR TO
DATE
PRECIP

(thru Aug 1)
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
PRECIP
SINCE
JUNE 1
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
MONTH
TO
DATE
PRECIP
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
BLOOMINGTON 28.84 -0.95 9.83 -0.07 0.00 -0.12
EVANSVILLE 33.69 +5.65 11.14 +3.34 0.00 -0.10
FT. WAYNE 27.60 +4.27 9.93 +1.40 0.34 +0.21
INDIANAPOLIS 28.78 +2.47 6.95 -1.96 0.00 -0.11
INDIANAPOLIS
EAGLE CREEK
25.75 +0.21 6.91 -1.82 0.00 -0.08
LAFAYETTE 25.54 +3.33 6.92 -1.27 0.00 -0.12
MUNCIE 22.61 -2.12 6.80 -2.36 0.00 -0.12
SHELBYVILLE 18.14 -8.86 5.83 -3.39 0.00 -0.11
SOUTH BEND 23.89 +2.25 6.59 -1.33 TRACE -0.13
TERRE HAUTE 31.76 +3.96 10.73 +1.37 0.00 -0.13


July 2013
We opened July as the coolest in 4 years with a high of 72 and with 0.46" of rain, it was the wettest open in 12 years as well. On July 2nd, we picked up an additional 0.54" of rain. The high went down as 78. This was a product of a slow moving upper level low pressure system that was with us late June & early July. The upper low was responsible for bringing 1.16" of precipitation for the 1st 6 days of the month and temps 80 & below. The pattern then flipped and we began a rapid warm up reaching temps in the mid to upper 80s from the 7th-10th. It was actually the start of a more drier weather pattern as well. Extending from the 7th out to the 19th, Indianapolis only saw 0.06" of rainfall. The reason for this was a dome of high pressure that basked the Eastern part of the nation in its hottest temps of the year. Indianapolis recorded 6 consecutive days with temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s, of which 4 were 90s.
Before the heat arrived, a strong batch of storms moved thru the state on Wednesday, July 10th. It spawned up an EF-1 tornado near Peru, Indiana. NWS Northern Indiana has more details on this in a write up at the following url address;

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=july_10_storms_2013

The heat ends on the 20th, when strong thunderstorms systems sweep by bringing 0.89" of rain. Another batch on the 22nd brung us 0.47" resulting in a 3 day total of 1.36". Temps for those 3 days reached the lower 80s. One last hot day came on the 23rd, temperatures reached the 90s again. A strong cold front on the 24th knocked temps back to the upper 70s. Same for the 25th 26th, 27th, 29th, and 30th.


Sunday, July 28th was the day of the Brickyard 400 and Ryan Newman won his 1st Brickyard race. It was a sunny and nice but cool day outside. The low temperatures fell to a record 51° besting the previous record of 54° set in 1971 and later tied in 2004. The afternoon high temperature reached 73°. This was 1° too warm from tying the lowest high temperature record for the date set back in 1925 and later tied in 1928 (72°). This did however tie for the coolest Brickyard since it first began on August 6, 1994. This was the coolest Brickyard in 19 years.
On Tuesday, July 30th stubborn cloud cover and light rain prevented temps from getting beyond the mid 70s. The official high was 74. More rain Wednesday kept temps in the 70s yet again. In fact, July 31st (77°) marked the coolest last day of July in 21 years (1992-69°). It was also one of the coolest stretches of weather to end July in 42 years (1971).
We also tied a temperature record that goes back 142 years. From July 24-31st, we didn't go 80 & above. This 8 day stretch ties the record 1st set back in 1871 when the 8 day period of July 16th-23rd also failed to go 80 & above. For more information on this you can read the NWS Indianapolis, IN write up on it by copying and pasting or clicking the following url address below.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=96360&source=0


The NWS Indianapolis, IN has its climate summary for July. If you like to read it then I have provided the url link for it below:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=96420&source=0


Here's how the year measures up.

MONTH AVG
TEMP
TEMP
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
TEMP
RANKING
TOTAL
PRECIP
PRECIP
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
PRECIP
RANKING
TOTAL
SNOWFALL
SNOWFALL
DEPARTURE
FROM
NORMAL
SNOWFALL
RANKING
JANUARY 29.9° +1.8° 58th Warmest 5.51" +2.85" 16th Wettest 2.4" -6.2" 35th least snowiest
FEBRUARY 30.9° -1.2° 66th Coolest 2.27" -0.05" 71st Driest 2.6" -3.9" 46th least snowiest
MARCH 35.5° -6.7° 14th Coolest 1.96" -1.60" 30th Driest 14.5" +11.9" 4th Snowiest
APRIL 52.5° -0.5° 74th Coolest 8.59" +4.78" 2nd Wettest TRACE -0.2" N/A
MAY 65.4° +2.7° 34th Warmest 3.50" -1.55" 60th Driest NONE 0.00" N/A
JUNE 72° 0.0° 71st Warmest 3.66" -0.59" 69th Driest NONE 0.00" N/A
JULY 73.9° -1.5° 30th Coolest 3.29" -1.26" 71st Driest NONE 0.00" N/A
JAN-JULY 51.4° -0.8° N/A 28.78 +2.58" N/A 19.5" +1.6" N/A


AUGUST AVERAGES
During a normal month of August, averages are its hottest the first part of the month and coolest at the end of the month. Its typically the 2nd hottest month of the year. The days continue to get shorter while the nights grow longer. The tropics are also more active. Not uncommon for remnants of some tropical storms to reach the Ohio Valley region. Also, we tend to trend towards more foggier mornings late summer heading into fall.
The average high remains at 84° from the 1st to the 27th and then drops to 83° 28th-31st.
The average low remains at 65° from the 1st to 18th, from the 19th-25th it drops to 64°, 26th-30th 63°, and then 62° the 31st.
The average temperature is 75° to the 16th, 74° from the 17th-26th, and 73° 27th-31st.
The hottest temperature ever recorded in August was 103° on the 5th of 1918.
The warmest low temperature ever recorded in August was 82° on numerous occasions. Last occurrence was the 19th of 1936
The coolest high temperature ever recorded in August was 58° on the 23rd of 1891.
The coolest low temperature ever recorded in August was 41° on the 29th of 1965.
TOP FIVE WARMEST AUGUST
(1) 1936-80.5°
(2) 1983-80.1°
(3) 2007-80°
(4) 1995-79.6°
(5) 2010-70.5°
TOP FIVE COOLEST AUGUST
(1) 1915-67.5°
(2) 1927-68.2°
(3) 1963-68.9°
(4) 1946-69°
(5) 1992-69.5°

The average precipitation amount is 3.13".
The wettest month of August was 8.34" in 1980, while the driest was 0.37" in 2010.
The wettest day in August is held by the 6th of 1976 with 4.46".
Daylight lost is 1 hr 8 mins.

CAN'T SHAKE THE BELOW NORMAL PATTERNbr> FRIDAY'S ACTUAL HIGH: 84 || NORMAL HIGH: 84
FRIDAY'S ACTUAL LOW: 59 || NORMAL LOW: 65

We are stuck in a northwest jet stream flow meaning steering winds are coming in from the Northwest driving the cooler air from the Northwest to the Southeast right into Indiana. You can sort of call this a blocking pattern. Friday marked the 10th straight day BELOW normal. If you go all the way up to Anchorage, Alaska, you'll find that they've gone a record 17 consecutive days (July 16th-August 1st) with temps 70+. This beats the previous record of 13 set in 2004. No official high temperature records have been broken there amidst of the streak.
Friday afternoon and evening also marked a short period of scattered showers & thunderstorms across the state as a cold front sags south from the north. This looks to diminish Saturday afternoon once its passes and the winds shift from the southwest to the northwest. Some afternoon or late day sunshine could be present as the weather clears. Temperatures likely may not reach the 80° mark over the weekend.
Clearing weather conditions on Saturday evening will allow for cooler temperatures to return. Lows go back to the 50s for not only Sunday morning but for Monday morning as well. Sunday and Monday will be nice, dry, & comfy before mid week rain/storm chances return next week. Temperatures over the next 10 days will primarily be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Here's a look at projected precipitations totals from the Euro (left) and GFS (right) weather models over the next 10 days.



Here's CPC outlook for the month. Temperatures likely below normal with an equal chance of above, below, or near normal precipitation.



***8 DAY OUTLOOK***


AUGUST 3 AUGUST 4 AUGUST 5 AUGUST 6 AUGUST 7 AUGUST 8 AUGUST 9 AUGUST 10
SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY
AM-RAIN
PM-SUN?
SUNNY
& NICE
PARTLY
SUNNY
RAIN
POSSIBLE
SCT'D
T'STORMS
SCT'D
T'STORMS
PARTLY
SUNNY
SUNNY
& NICE
NOT AS
WARM
AVG HIGH
84
AVG LOW
65

WARMER
WARMER STRONG? NOT AS
WARM
COOL
79 77 79 82 84 83 77 77
57 57 62 69 69 67 57 55

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