We did receive some beneficial rain late last week. 2.04" of rain for September 19-21 is the wettest since 2.29" fell on April 18th. The month's total precipitation amount is 2.32". This is 0.27" below the normal month to date amount of 2.59". Here's a look back at the months observations so far.
Tonight, skies will be clear and temperatures will drop back to the mid 50s. There could be areas of patchy fog around the state, this is one weather feature we typically see during the fall months. We'll see lots of sun over the next few days and we are the under the influence of warmer air so temps will make it back into the 80s if not tomorrow, definitely by Friday and peaking Saturday.
A slow moving cold front will not only bring cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday but also brings in a rain chance for what looks like the 1st half of Sunday at the moment. Some of the latest models run are drying up projected totals from this system. The storm's potential may only bring us up to a quarter of an inch of rain and this will be our best rain chance over the next 7-10 days and the last shot to add to our month's running total of again 2.32". Only 5 days this month saw measurable precipitation and 6 out of the past 46 days (since August 10th) saw measurable rain.
5 Day forecast for the period of Thursday, September 26th-Monday, September 30th
5 Day forecast for the period of Tuesday, October 1st-Saturday, October 5th
We'll go from those lower 70s on Sunday and Monday and quickly warm back up towards the 80s for Tuesday. If we don't hit it, there's a good chance we may hit it on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We are in the midst of the change of seasons. The transitioning process from summer to fall will have temperatures in a tug-of-war contest but we'll begin to see more frequent arctic intrusions over the next few weeks. Summer will eventually give fall full control of the weather pattern soon. We only average 2 days in October w/ high 80+ and good chance the run of 90° heat is over for this year. The latest last 90° date is held by October 8, 2007 and the latest last 80° date is held by November 1, 1950.
That in mind, long range indicators are hinting at a push of cool and wet weather at the tail end of the next 10 day period. Just beyond, we could be looking at our coolest temperatures since the Spring season. Midwest meteorologists will have a close eye on the weather models as the days draws closer. For now, the long range American GFS model is coming in with high temps that fail to top the 60s and lows that drop into the 30s. Some areas will be nearing the first frost and for those up North, the first freeze almost on cue. We typically see our 1st frost in Central Indiana early October (around 36° or lower), 1st freeze mid October (32° or lower), and hard freeze late October (28° or lower). The last freeze in Indianapolis was on April 20th. The last time Indianapolis saw a sub 60 high was 57° on May 12th and a sub 40 low was 37° on May 13th.
Both the GFS (left) and ECMWF (right) pretty much have the similar idea on the cooler weather pattern coming in starting October 5th! GFS is more aggressive.
As the angle of the sun continues to get lower, the length of night time expands while daylight steadily shortens. The loss of daylight hours and lower angle of the sun means it takes longer for temperatures to warm up, therefore, the average temperature continues to decline. Starting tomorrow night, it appears night will be longer than day. Just so you know, we are losing 1 hr 14 mins of daylight this month and we won't gain any more daylight time until the winter solstice on Saturday, December 21, 2013 at 12:11 PM EST.
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