Warm Dry Start to Work Week, Mid Week Storm Looms

After the 12th warmest open to October, where the avg temp for the 1st 5 days was 71°, we then switched to a cooler weather pattern. From 16th-26th, the average daily temperature has finished anywhere between 1° to as much as 16° below normal. 54% (14 out of 26) of the days this month has been at or below normal but overall since September 1st, 57% (32 out of 55) of the days this fall season have been above normal. Mother nature is trying to balance the weather out. We've now seen both our 1st frost/freeze and trace of wintry precipitation for the season. The cold air we received over the past week is quite rare for this time of the year but this is just a sample what weather will soon be like. Fall is just getting started and winter is on its heels. Here's a quick list of "Chilling" Facts for the month:

• First Sub 60 High happened on October 17th (54°)
• First Sub 50 High happened on October 23rd (47°)
• First Sub 40 Low happened on October 19th (39°)
• First Sub 30 Low happened on October 25th (26۰) which was also our 1st hard freeze. Coldest morning since April 3rd (25°)
• First Freeze happened on October 22nd (30°) which was the coldest temps since the last freeze on April 20th (30°).
• Trace of wintry precipitation (snow, graupel, sleet) was recorded on both the 23rd & 24th.
• High Temp of 40 on the 24th set new record for coolest high temperature. Previous Record was 41° set in 1937. Was the 32nd October afternoon (out of over 4300 October afternoons) with a high temp 40° or colder. Typical for December 10th.

• 26° low on October 25th marked the coldest weather so early in the autumn season (in October) since October 19, 1992 when the thermometer dipped to 25°. The record low temperature for the month of October is 20 degrees 1st set on October 28, 1976 then later again on October 24, 1981.
• Hard Freeze (28° or colder) on October 25 was the 2nd time in 10 years and 6th time in 20 years October saw a hard freeze and 5 days ahead of the average date for the 1st hard freeze. 28° is the normal low for December 3rd.
• The low temp of 26° on the 25th is 56° colder than the month's warmest high temp which is 82° recorded both on the 3rd & 4th.
• This months we've seen highs in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s. We've seen lows in the 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, ad 60s.
  

Here's an updated look at the month's high and low temperature plot.



The December-like chill has now eased back and more seasonal weather is moving in. We reached 56° on both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will continue to trend up surging into the mid 60s mid week. This warm-up will be associated with a whopper of a storm system (storm #1) that may have the potential for severe weather. This would include heavy rain, damaging winds, prolific lightning, and we can't ignore the possibility of a few tornadoes. Not saying this will all happen but modeling is certainly suggesting it. Will need more time to watch this and see what short term models have to say. Timing, storm track, and strength is all subject to change but this storm weak or severe will put a damper on Halloween plans. Not good news for the trick or treaters this year.

Here's a look at the warmth we'll receive mid-week. These are 12z runs from this morning. American GFS model is on the left and heavily trusted European model on the right.



Here's an idea of the storm's location looking at 6 hr precipitation totals between 18z GFS & 12z Euro for Halloween.



Cooler air will follow up behind the storm. Morning low temperatures on Sunday Morning, November 3rd will dip back into the mid 30s. Areas away from the city may dip below freezing. The 50s will be a reach for Sunday afternoon highs. Some may not make it especially northeast. Here's GFS (top) and Euro's (bottom) take on the low and high temps for Sunday. I have us topped out at 50 even.


Another push of warmer air looks to come in early next work week. This will be followed up by storm system #2. Rain and falling temperatures might be the setup for this system as we look to get a quick cold shot of air.
Warm Temps still putting up a good fight. More 60s (maybe 70s for some) on the horizon around November 9th-11th time frame to be followed up with a more substantial colder air mass that may spin up storm #3. More details on this in the days to come.



Mark your calendars because you all will get an extra hour of sleep next weekend. Daylight Savings Time ends on Sunday, November 3rd. Because of the time shift, Sunrise will go from 8:15am on the 2nd to 7:16am on the 3rd and sunset will go from 6:41pm on the 2nd to 5:40pm on the 3rd. There won't be a drastic change in the length of daylight time. Only 2 mins shorter. The sun will rise earlier and set earlier as well as duration of daylight continues to decline.