Sunshine & Dry Weather Returns

Some Numbers of the Year

• Today is the 311th day of the Year. We have 54 days left of the year
• Today is the 68th day of Meteorological Fall. We have 23 days remaining ending November 30th
• Today is the 46th day of Astronomical Fall. We have 44 days remaining ending December 21st
• 90 Days this Year w/ Low Temps 32 or Below
• 65 Days this Year w/ Low Temps 28 or Below
• 26 Days this Year w/ Low Temps 19 or Below
• 5 Days this Year w/ Single Digit Low Temps
• 158 Days this Year w/ High Temps 70+
• 96 Days this Year w/ High Temps 80+
• 14 Days this Year w/ High Temps 90+
• 470 Days Since Our Last 100 (July 25, 2012 High-103°)
• 108 Days This Year w/ Measurable Precipitation totaling 38.60" (106% of the normal 36.27")
• 160 Days This Year w/ Trace or More Precipitation
• 14 Consecutive Weekends with one or more days recording a Trace or More Precipitation (April 27-July 7)
• 148 Days This Year Finished w/ Above Normal Temps
• 15 Days This Year Finished w/ Normal Temps
• 147 Days This Year Finished w/ Below Normal Temps

METEOROLOGICAL FALL CONTINUES... (September 1st-present)

The Fall season was off to a mild start. We even tied & broke a few record temperatures early during the 1st half of September and except the 3rd, the 1st 11 days of the month saw high temps 84+ which was above normal. A series of four cold fronts quickly moved in behind the record heat. The high temperature was 95 on the 11th, 83 on the 12th, & then 69 on the 13th. This was a 26° drop in the highs in 48 hours. The low temperature was 72 on the 11th, 63 on the 12th, and 53 on the 13th. This was a 19° drop in the lows in 48 hours. Overall, temps drops 20-25° in 48 hours but the drop doesn't stop there. The AM low temperature on the 14th was 48°. This was the coolest low since June 3rd. The 69° high on the 13th was also the coolest high since June 3rd.
Even after several of these frontal systems, we only recorded a quarter of an inch of precipitation during the 1st 19 days of the month. There was a slight warm up back to the low 80s as a warm front pushed through but this was associated with a storm system that brought severe weather or rather thundery downpours to the state on the 19th. Indianapolis recorded 1.53" of rain on the 19th w/ an additional 0.49" on the 20th ending with 0.02" early on the 21st. 2.04" of rain for September 19-21 is the wettest at one time since 2.29" fell on April 18th.
Since the average temperature was decreasing during the month, we were able to finish the month warm enough to be 1-7° above normal from the 24th-30th. This put the months average temperature at 69.5° which was 2.6° above normal (66.9°) On the 29th, another cold front moved through that also generated a half inch of precipitation. This brought's the months final rainfall tally to 2.86". The month finished 0.26" below normal (3.12").
Overall, September 2013 finished as the 36th warmest and 69th wettest on record.

We opened up the month of October as the 12th warmest on record for the 1st five days w/ an average temperature of 71°. Also, the 1st five days was the warmest since 72.3° in 2007. A few fronts allowed high temperatures to drop into the mid to low 60s for October 6th & 7th. These cool temps were a response to a passage of a powerhouse frontal system that 1st dropped 2+ feet of snow in the Plains and spawned tornadoes in the upper midwest, and later generated nearly 3" of rain in Indianapolis. We set a daily record rainfall on October 6th. The 1.45" of rain we received bested a 15 yr old record of 1.41" set in 1998. We then went into a dry streak that lasted a week as high pressure parked itself in the Midwest region. This prolonged period of dry warmer resulted in above normal temps bringing pleasant fall weather to the state. A weak frontal system that passed the state overnight on the 12th into the 13th little to no precipitation was generated across the state.
Some what of an unsettled pattern brought more rain to the state from the 15th-19th bringing a little less than half an inch of precipitation over this 5 day period in Indianapolis. The wet weather was also associated with the switch to a cooler weather regime that brought below normal temperatures for the remainder of the month. A cold front moved through on the 21st which allowed temperatures to drop below freezing the morning of the 22nd (low was 30°). It was the 1st fall freeze for Indianapolis since April 20th, a span of 185 days. With a low pressure system in the area, temperatures continued to remain anywhere from 3 to as much 22 degrees below normal from the 21st-27th. We recorded trace amounts of wintry precipitation (such as graupel, sleet, & snow flurries) on the 23rd and 24th. We also recorded our 1st Hard Freeze (28° or below) on October 25th when the low reached 26°. This was 17° below normal (43°) and was the coldest since 25° on April 3rd, a span of 205 days.
On the 27th, there was a slight pullback in the chill and temperatures began to respond reach 60s on the 28th, 30th, and 31st. This snapped a 14 consecutive day streak of below normal temperatures. Its was the longest stretch of below normal temperatures since the 19 day streak that ran from March 12th-30th earlier this year. This warm-up came w/ a price. A price that put a damper on Halloween plans. A large supply of Gulf moisture feeding into a monster low pressure system ahead of a cold front allowed for widespread precipitation across the Midwest region spawning up tornadoes & record rainfalls. All but 1 of these tornadoes were rated EF1 or weaker doing some damage in Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Illinois, and Ohio. There was one EF2 tornado that impacted Stoddard, Missouri which is located about 150 miles south of St. Louis. Overall, 26 of 46 tornadoes reported have been confirmed.
We didn't have severe weather of that magnitude closer to home. We recorded wind gust in excess of 40 mph across the state. Muncie, Indiana recorded a 75 mph peak wind gust. This was of hurricane strength. In Indianapolis, we recorded a peak wind gust of 58 mph which was the highest wind gust since 59 mph was recorded back on February 19th. As for rainfall, many locations around the state broke their Halloween record rainfall amounts. In Indianapolis, 2.01" of rainfall fell which bested a 72 year old rainfall record of 1.30" set in 1941. Only 39% of the Halloweens over the past 140 years have recorded measurable rainfall. A few other record rainfall amounts were set in; Terre Haute (2.42"), Ft. Wayne (1.73"), Lafayette (1.51"), and Muncie (1.18"). The record of 1.16" was tied in Shelbyville.
We received 82% (2.57") of our average month's rainfall (3.12") within the 1st 10 days of the month. The average precipitation amount for the 1st 10 days of the month is 1.05" The total precipitation amount for October 2013 was 5.46". This was 2.34" ABOVE NORMAL. As for the month's average temperature of 54.6ˌ, the month finished finished 0.6° BELOW NORMAL.
Overall, October 2013 finished as the 57th Coolest and 12th Wettest October on record.
You can read NWS Indianapolis, Indiana's version of the last month's climate summary by clicking or copying and pasting the following url address:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=97962&source=0


So far this November, the average temperature (48.2°) is running 0.6° below normal (48.8°) and this months precipitation (0.35") is running 0.35" below normal (0.70"). Meteorological Fall as a whole, so far, has produced 8.67" of rainfall which is 1.73" above normal (6.94"). 55.2% (37 out of 67) of the days this Fall season have been above normal. 43.3% (29 out of 67) days this have been below normal while 1.5% (1 day) have seen normal temps.

Here's a quick look at how the year measures up in terms of average temperatures and precipitation.

MONTH	AVG TEMP	TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	TEMP RANKING	TOTAL PRECIP	PRECIP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	PRECIP RANKING	TOTAL SNOWFALL	SNOWFALL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL	SNOWFALL RANKING
JANUARY	29.9°	+1.8°	58th Warmest	5.51"	+2.85"	16th Wettest	2.4"	-6.2"	35th least snowiest
FEBRUARY	30.9°	-1.2°	66th Coolest	2.27"	-0.05"	71st Driest	2.6"	-3.9"	46th least snowiest
MARCH	35.5°	-6.7°	14th Coolest	1.96"	-1.60"	30th Driest	14.5"	+11.9"	4th most snowiest
APRIL	52.5°	-0.5°	74th Coolest	8.59"	+4.78"	2nd Wettest	TRACE	-0.2"	N/A
MAY	65.4°	+2.7°	34th Warmest	3.50"	-1.55"	60th Driest	NONE	0.00"	N/A
JUNE	72°	0.0°	71st Warmest	3.66"	-0.59"	69th Driest	NONE	0.00"	N/A
JULY	73.9°	-1.5°	30th Coolest	3.29"	-1.26"	71st Driest	NONE	0.00"	N/A
AUGUST	74.9°	+0.7°	43rd Warmest	1.15"	-1.98"	12th Driest	NONE	0.00"	N/A
SEPTEMBER	69.5°	+2.6°	36th Warmest	2.86"	-0.26"	69th Wettest	NONE	0.00"	N/A
OCTOBER	54.6°	-0.4°	57th Coolest	5.46"	+2.34"	12th Wettest	TRACE	-0.4"	N/A
JAN-OCT	55.9°	-0.2°	N/A	38.25	+2.68"	N/A	19.5"	+1.2"	N/A

Yesterday we saw 0.35" of rain and behind it a cold front accompanied w/ a wind shift passed through the state. Temperatures went from mid to upper 50s (official high was 60) on November 6th to morning low temperatures on November 7th near freezing (AM low was 32). The clouds have cleared allowing for sunshine to return. Temperatures should reach the upper 40s this afternoon but there could be a few passing clouds tonight. We'll another cold night tonight as low temperatures dip to freezing. A warm front will approach tomorrow so this pave the way for a much warmer Saturday. Temperatures will try to make a run towards 60s but I think we'll fall a few degrees short in the upper 50s. High temps will remain in the mid to upper 50s for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday we'll also remain dry during this time.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM BREWING?

Attention will be set on a developing colder & disturbing weather pattern that could bring several inches of snow to the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, & Northeast regions. This disturbance could bring a rain/snow mix here on Tuesday w/ falling temperatures in the 20s and few snow showers on Wednesday. Earliest weather model runs are hinting at perhaps an 1" to 2" of snowfall in Indianapolis but this is many days out and is subject to change and likely will change. The most accurate weather forecast typically happens within a 72 hours time period. We need more time for sampling and seeing what shorter term models have to say. These short term models don't run that far out yet. Will continue to monitor and have more updates to come. In the meantime, here's a look at my latest 10 day weather outlook.

10 DAY OUTLOOK