A warm front passed through Indiana late Friday the 8th into early Saturday the 9th which drived temperatures into the low 60s for Saturday afternoon high temperatures. The warm up was rather brief as the warm front was quickly replaced by the passing of a cold front. Highs on Sunday the 10th was 10° cooler with temperatures struggling to top the 50s in many locations. Temperatures were nearly identical for the 11th but arctic air was on the move and came in Monday evening. Widespread rainfall made a transition as the lake effect snow machine was turned on and nearly everyone around Indiana saw their 1st measurable snowfall of the season on the 12th. Anywhere from a dusting to 1.5" fell around the state. 0.1" fell in Indianapolis which was the 1st measurable snowfall here in 231 days when 0.1" fell on March 26th. This was also 7 days before the average date of 1st measurable snow which is November 19th. Some counties up North near the lake where snow persisted saw more than 6" of snow. Saint Joseph, Michigan recorded 17". Nearly 55% of the Great Lakes Region was covered in snow. The location of where the heaviest band setup was very selective. Chicago only recorded 0.4" at their NWS office at O'Hare International Airport.
As the warm air quickly dissipated and the snow fell, temperatures tumbled into the low 20s for Tuesday morning lows. As the chill settled in, Tuesday afternoon high temperatures only made it a few degrees above freezing. The high of 36° on the 12th was the coldest high temperature since 34° was recorded on March 25th. These temperatures were 15°-18° below normal and the high was 1° below the average low temperature. On the 13th, arctic air continued to work in and the morning low temperature dropped into the teens (18°). It was the coldest in 237 days when the thermometer dropped to 16° back on March 21st. It was also the coldest start to a November day in 5 years when the thermometer dropped to 17° on November 22, 2008. Since weather records began in 1871, only 73 out of 143 Novembers have produced a low of 18° or colder, the coldest was -5° in 1880. This cold air so early in the month is rather rare & quite impressive. It was only the 27th time on record the low of 18° or colder occurred before November 13th and the first time in 18 years!
On the 14th, the cold air was beginning to retreat. The morning Low dropped to 26° and afternoon temperature warmed up 27° to a high of 53° and on the 15th the AM low was 40° and the afternoon high was 54° Warmer air is not far behind at the moment. Temperatures expected to climbed into the mid to upper 50s on Saturday and 60s on Sunday. But as the warm air moves in, high pressure continues to shift East and will allow for weather systems to move in. In fact, rain chances are returning and the potential for convective systems will increase as the weekend progresses.
SATURDAY:
Any outdoor activities should be done early as we will be mostly dry. Could be a few spotty showers in the afternoon but we should be under simply cloudy skies for the 1st half of the day. Rain chances increases tonight. Below is simulated radar for 8pm. Some light rain or sprinkles may be falling. Everyone should see rain by midnight. We turn warmer w/ temps reaching the upper 50s, low 60s. Temps will hold steady overnight.
The Great Lakes & Ohio Valley region is bulls eye for severe weather on Sunday where convective potential will be at its strongest in the late afternoon and evening hours. There looks to be two rounds of storms tomorrow. The 1st round comes in the AM then perhaps a lull in between. Any breaks in the clouds will only increases the threat for the stronger 2nd push of storms in the evening that appears to move through as a squall line. The dynamics into Sunday's storms could bring even higher wind gust than Halloween. Threat for tornadoes is higher too! All of Indiana and Ohio and parts of Michigan and Kentucky are under a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms. Its interesting to see this on SPC Day 2 convective outlook. This just shows that something is definitely going to happen somewhere sometime tomorrow. If you have one, you'll need your NOAA radio. There's also apps on your phone you can download that gives you push alerts of watches and warnings. Some areas in the region (like on Halloween) will see over 2" of rain when this is all done. Some models hinting 70s tomorrow but I always have a thing for going w/ the models thats the lowest with temps when storms are in play so far that reason I'm going 66 for tomorrows high.
DON'T LET FALL STORMS CATCH YOU OFF GUARD!
Strong cold fronts and low pressure systems in the Fall often mean severe weather. Severe weather sometime mean tornadoes. Fall is secondary tornado season. There are 4 big November tornado outbreaks over the last 15 yrs:
(1) November 24-25, 2001 outbreak spawned 69 tornadoes affecting 8 states with Indiana being one of them, and killed 13 people.
(2) The Veterans Day Weekend Outbreak (November 9th-11th, 2002) spawned 83 tornadoes killing 36 people costing 13 states over $160 million in damage.
(3) November 15, 2005 outbreak spawned 50 tornadoes costing 7 states (including Indiana) an estimated $68 million of damage and 1 fatality (Kentucky). This was also the last time the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a rare "High Risk" probability for severe weather in November (and included nearly ALL of Indiana). Only 4 times over the past 24 years since 1989 has a "High Risk" been issued in November across the U.s.
(4) November 29-30, 2010 outbreak spawned 31 tornadoes in the Deep South affecting Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Around 32 people died.
FOLLOW NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS, IN on Twitter at twitter.com/NWSIndianapolis or on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/pages/US-National-Weather-Service-Indianapolis-Indiana/207144502648963
FOLLOW NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA, IN on Twitter at twitter.com/NWSIWX or
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NEXT WEEK
Temperatures will fall back on Monday & Tuesday. A slight warm up back to the low 50s could be expected for Wednesday and Thursday. Rain Returns on Friday. Next weekend looks fairly dry but more cooler air approaches. Also, next week is WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK in Indiana. You can utilize the information NWS offices will be providing daily on Twitter and Facebook. You can also read the press release at the following url address I've provided below:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/ind/2013WintWxWk/MediaRelease2013.pdf
Here's my latest 10 day weather outlook for next week.
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