Near Record Warmth Today, Rain Tonight, and Cooler for the Weekend

A storm system responsible for bringing the seasons 1st widespread snow cover to the western states this week is headed our way but it'll be in the form of rain with some thunderstorms being possible. There was a 24" snow report made in Three Creek, Idaho by a NWS employee. Here in Indianapolis, temperatures this week have mostly been in the 60s and 70s. We achieved a high temperature of 76 on Wednesday afternoon which was the warmest November afternoon since November 4, 2003 (High 78). A scan of records show that 49 Novembers since 1943 have seen atleast one day with a high 70+. The most was 8 days in 1964. The latest last 70 day in a year to ever occur was on December 6, 1998 when the high was 73. There are 4 years where we've seen 70s in December (1970, 1982, 1998, and 2001). As climate normals, high temperatures in the 70s are more typical for September and May.
The low temperature this morning was 60. This marks the first 60°+ low in November since the 19th in 1991. Only 9 years have seen a 60°+ low in November since 1943. The most was 5 in 1977. Temperatures this week have been 10-20 degrees above normal. All official weather observations since 1943 have been at Indianapolis International Airport.



WARMTH REMAINS BUT RAIN AND COOLER AIR IS COMING
As you can see, clouds are the dominate feature today but the warmth remains. The record high of 76 set in 1978 could be in jeopardy The temperature at noon was at 74.
Some isolated showers may be possible between 1pm-5pm when peak heating of the day is reached. Showers may become more widespread after 6pm. Rain may persist throughout the overnight hours. Here is a simulated radar snapshot at 2am (left) and 8am (right). Some rain may be embedded with a rumble of thunder or two.

A cold front will pass through on Friday morning ushering in drier air and cooler temps. The rain will end and the temperatures will gradually fall throughout the day. I'm bracketing the hours of 5pm Thursday and 8am Friday for rain. Clouds may thin out Friday afternoon offering up some sunshine to start the weekend.
Temperatures drop from 60s Friday morning to 50s Friday afternoon. If your out Friday evening you'll need a jacket as temperatures will continue to fall into the 40s and by Saturday morning lows could be in the mid to upper 30s in Central and Northern Indiana. Temperatures on Saturday will warm from 30s in the morning to 50s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures could be near freezing for Sunday and Monday morning with afternoon highs again in the 50s. The normal high for this time of the year is in the upper 50s with lows in the upper 30s so the weather over the comings days will actually be more seasonal at November-like levels

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOMS NEXT WEEK
3 long range models (CMC GEM, ECMWF and GFS) show a strong low pressure system moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes region for November 12th/13th time frame (pictured below). This will mark the next cold blast after a slight tick up in temps Monday-Wednesday. More details will be available in the comings days. We are getting into the time of the year where these arctic intrusions will become more frequent and dominate as we head into the winter months. The 3rd arctic blast of the month is already showing up around the 19th-21st. It could be possible we may see some snow before the month ends. Standby for further weather updates.



***7 DAY EXTENDED FORECAST***